How likely is it Minnesota flips in 2020?

[pbrower2a]

Practically nil.

[pbrower2a]

Minnesota doesn't usually swing much. Trump promised big infrastructure programs, which obviously excited Minnesota's iron miners who understand that more infrastructure means that they prosper. Regrettably the infrastructure program was mostly privatization, which means simply turning free routes into toll routes operated by monopolistic gougers.

That is a flop. Minnesota goes back to being one of those states that goes R only for an Eisenhower-style Republican (Ike won the state twice, along with Massachusetts and Rhode Island. which have historically been among the three toughest states for Republican nominees to win.

Massachusetts and Rhode Island were the only two states outside of the South that Hoover lost in 1928, Rhode Island was the third-worst state for Nixon in 1972 and Reagan in 1984 in 49-state electoral blowouts, and Massachusetts and Minnesota alternating between second-worst (49th best) and 50th best (worst) for Nixon in 1972 and Reagan in 1984.

Minnesota goes to Trump only in a 40+ state blowout for Trump in 2020, and it is more likely that Trump will lose 40 states than win 40.   

[pbrower2a]

Eisenhower twice, Obama twice -- white
Eisenhower twice, Obama once  -- light blue
Eisenhower never, Obama once -- pink
No state voted for the Democrat all four times, so no true red appears here
Eisenhower all four times -- blue 
Stevenson twice, McCain, Romney -- dark green
Stevenson once, Eisenhower once, McCain, Romney -- light green.
Did not vote in  the 1950s -- gray. (I assume that Eisenhower won Greater Omaha, but I can't subdivide Maine by district in the 1950s, although Ike won the state 70-30, so I figure that he would have won both ocf what were Maine's 2008 and 2012 Congressional districts as did Obama. 

Democrats are more likely to nominate someone similar to Obama in ideology and temperament than anyone else in 2020... although America has changed greatly since the 1950s, Eisenhower was the liberal on race relations in the 1950s. Guess which President I consider most similar to Obama!