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  TX: NYT Upshot / Siena : Cruz +8
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Author Topic: TX: NYT Upshot / Siena : Cruz +8  (Read 660 times)
reagente
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« on: October 11, 2018, 09:32:20 pm »
« edited: October 11, 2018, 09:56:29 pm by reagente »

Cruz (R): 51
O'Rourke (D): 43



https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-poll-txsen-2.html
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DataGuy
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« Reply #1 on: October 11, 2018, 09:38:23 pm »

I predicted Cruz +7, so not really surprised.
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WI Is Tilt D
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« Reply #2 on: October 11, 2018, 09:57:30 pm »

The media is delusional about Beto's chances.
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Senate/SCOTUS/EC Delenda Est 👁
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« Reply #3 on: October 11, 2018, 10:10:04 pm »

I am pretty doubtful of the Hispanic crosstab and the Rio Grande Valley crosstab. Although Cruz is Hispanic, and he did overperform somewhat with Hispanics in 2012 (against a non-name opponent), he did not overperform even then by that much. In addition, even Wendy Davis did much better than that with Hispanics and in the RGV - I suppose it is possible Beto might do a tad worse than that in some places, but not much. You can look at the red dots in the RGV and just see with an eyeball where they are coming from, that it is not really plausible.

So I think that probably just goes to the fact that it is not easy to poll Hispanics and the RGV in Texas, and accordingly it is possible Beto is doing a bit better than this poll would indicate. Of course, some of the other crosstabs could potentially be off a bit here and there in the other direction as well.

The rest of the crosstabs seem to make general sense. Beto is doing extremely well with whites (31%), especially college-educated whites (39%). Not well enough, but for Texas, that is pretty amazing. By comparison, Clinton had 26% with whites in the TX 2016 exit polls (and I am quite sure that even that 26% is actually fairly substantial overstatement). So if Beto can get anything like 31% of Whites, that is huge and amazing progress. The only reason he is not doing better than Clinton in this poll is that it is a midterm and so minority turnout is projected to be lower than in a Presidential race. But if Dems can also get those sorts of numbers from whites/college whites in the future, the TX GOP had better start watching out in Presidential elections when minority turnout is higher.
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« Reply #4 on: October 11, 2018, 10:25:00 pm »

Unlike their NV result, this result is definitely plausible, though it's very interesting that O'Rourke is slightly ahead among those "certain" to vote. Maybe he could still come very close if enthusiasm is much higher among Democrats in three weeks, but it's really looking like it's over, and the best he can do is come within a few points.
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History505
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« Reply #5 on: October 11, 2018, 10:38:26 pm »

No surprise.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #6 on: October 12, 2018, 02:03:56 am »

This looks reasonable. Unfortunately. Beto should have stayed in the House and wait to 2024. Demographics will be more friendly then and we have a presidential year with higher turnout. Trump will either be an unpopular two term prez or we have a Dem prez who is poised to win reelection.
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Lean Branson
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« Reply #7 on: October 12, 2018, 02:05:48 am »

This looks reasonable. Unfortunately. Beto should have stayed in the House and wait to 2024.

He term-limited himself, for some bizarre reason.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #8 on: October 12, 2018, 02:10:29 am »

The media is delusional about Beto's chances.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #9 on: October 12, 2018, 07:17:39 pm »

The media is delusional about Beto's chances.

I want to call this Sanders syndrome. It's when people become so distracted by the large crowds and excitement that a candidate creates that it inflates their sense of purpose or the perception of their chances to win in an environment or in a race that is just plainly not winnable for that candidate.
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