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November 15, 2019, 06:45:00 pm
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  2018 Gubernatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  TX: NYT Upshot / Siena : Abbott +22
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Author Topic: TX: NYT Upshot / Siena : Abbott +22  (Read 686 times)
reagente
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« on: October 11, 2018, 09:38:32 pm »

Abbott (R) - 57%
Valdez (D) - 35%

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-poll-txsen-2.html
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #1 on: October 12, 2018, 01:28:11 am »


We have now had three consecutive polls showing Abbott up by at least 20 points. It looks like he is set to win by the same margin that he did back in 2014, in a supposedly more Democratic-leaning year.
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Tartarus Sauce
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« Reply #2 on: October 13, 2018, 12:01:14 pm »


We have now had three consecutive polls showing Abbott up by at least 20 points. It looks like he is set to win by the same margin that he did back in 2014, in a supposedly more Democratic-leaning year.

Should probably be taken as an indicator that the polls are overestimating his final margin.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #3 on: October 13, 2018, 12:26:18 pm »


We have now had three consecutive polls showing Abbott up by at least 20 points. It looks like he is set to win by the same margin that he did back in 2014, in a supposedly more Democratic-leaning year.

Should probably be taken as an indicator that the polls are overestimating his final margin.

Do you think that it will be closer than 2014?
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dfwlibertylover
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« Reply #4 on: October 13, 2018, 01:46:20 pm »

Lupe Valdez is a bad candidate, she has fundraised wayyyy less than even Wendy Davis.
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #5 on: October 13, 2018, 06:56:13 pm »

Abott will win by more than 20 points. This is Texas, people. Let's stop pretending it's the next Virginia. (Atlas and the media seem to confuse "what Atlas and the media want" with "what is actually reality.")
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Georgia Is A Swing State
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« Reply #6 on: October 13, 2018, 07:50:26 pm »

Abott will win by more than 20 points. This is Texas, people. Let's stop pretending it's the next Virginia. (Atlas and the media seem to confuse "what Atlas and the media want" with "what is actually reality.")
Who has suggested that Valdez isn't going to get BTFO?
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #7 on: October 13, 2018, 08:12:22 pm »

Abott will win by more than 20 points. This is Texas, people. Let's stop pretending it's the next Virginia. (Atlas and the media seem to confuse "what Atlas and the media want" with "what is actually reality.")
Who has suggested that Valdez isn't going to get BTFO?

Admittedly none, but this race should be a solid indicator that Texas is still a Safe Republican state. We could attribute what happened in 2016 to the dislike of some Cruz or suburban Republicans for Trump. It was not necessarily an indication that they would defect to the Democrats. Demographic changes are gradual, and I don't think Texas will become seriously competitive for at least another ten years or so, if that.
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Panda Express
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« Reply #8 on: October 15, 2018, 05:39:00 am »

For a latina lesbian in Texas, this is about as good as you could hope for.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #9 on: October 15, 2018, 08:41:46 am »


We have now had three consecutive polls showing Abbott up by at least 20 points. It looks like he is set to win by the same margin that he did back in 2014, in a supposedly more Democratic-leaning year.

Should probably be taken as an indicator that the polls are overestimating his final margin.
Or that voters just like the job he is doing.
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