ME Change Research: Mills +8 in Head-To-Head vs Moody

[MAINEiac4434]

Mills 52
Moody 44

https://medium.com/@ChngRsrch/50-of-mainers-less-likely-to-re-elect-senator-collins-if-she-votes-to-confirm-kavanaugh-2d0ab56a6f3b

[Antonio the Sixth]

Do we have a guess who Hayes is taking more votes from?

[Free Bird]

Anything for a 4-way?

[MAINEiac4434]

Do we have a guess who Hayes is taking more votes from?

The Hayes internal said partisan split of her support (not including indies) is 57% GOP, 43% Dem.

Anything for a 4-way?

Negative.

[Free Bird]

This poll seems sketchy. I don't doubt Mills is leading but there's no MoE and no undecideds or 4-way matchup stats.

[KingSweden]

Do we have a guess who Hayes is taking more votes from?

The Hayes internal said partisan split of her support (not including indies) is 57% GOP, 43% Dem.

I have a hard time believing that

[Antonio the Sixth]

Do we have a guess who Hayes is taking more votes from?

The Hayes internal said partisan split of her support (not including indies) is 57% GOP, 43% Dem.

I have a hard time believing that

I mean it's a ridiculously small subsample so the margin of error is through the roof, but the big takeaway should be that neither candidate will loose more than 3 points or so from Hayes on net. Which is still good news for the leading one (ie Mills).

[MAINEiac4434]

Do we have a guess who Hayes is taking more votes from?

The Hayes internal said partisan split of her support (not including indies) is 57% GOP, 43% Dem.

I have a hard time believing that

Yeah, but after the Cutler fiasco, Democrats are not defecting Mills this year. Partisan defectors are low this cycle regardless. It’s not surprising that Hayes would get (slightly) more supporters from Republicans.

Especially if they’re not fans of Moody because they find him to be a dumbass or whatever, they have nowhere else to go. Caron’s trying to position himself to Mills’s left, and Mills is running as an unapologetic liberal. Hayes is running center to center-right on fiscal issues and center-left on social issues. She’s the only option for Republicans against Moody. My Hayes campaign contact has been saying that they’ve been getting more support from Republicans than Democrats for months.

[MAINEiac4434]

This poll seems sketchy. I don't doubt Mills is leading but there's no MoE and no undecideds or 4-way matchup stats.

I’m not taking it as god’s honest truth, and from what I can tell the Mills campaign isn’t either, because I only found this trawling around the deepest parts of the Maine political Internet. If they believed it, they would’ve promoted it.