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December 09, 2019, 04:56:14 pm
News: 2019 Gubernatorial Predictions close today at noon

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  TN: NYT Upshot / Siena : Blackburn +14
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Author Topic: TN: NYT Upshot / Siena : Blackburn +14  (Read 3358 times)
reagente
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« on: October 11, 2018, 09:54:30 pm »

Blackburn (R) - 54
Bredesen (D) - 40



https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-poll-tnsen-2.html
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RoboWop
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« Reply #1 on: October 11, 2018, 09:59:39 pm »
« Edited: October 11, 2018, 10:06:49 pm by AMB1996 »

This one is moving away from Bredesen fast.

Is there any recent finance data on this race? Blackburn had a major CoH advantage at last report in July, and if that's still true I'm inclined to think this could be over in as little as a week.
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Xing
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« Reply #2 on: October 11, 2018, 10:25:46 pm »

Yeah, this one was always a pipe dream.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #3 on: October 11, 2018, 10:25:49 pm »

Another former Gov running for office doesn't pan out, Strickland, Thompson and now Bredesen😶
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #4 on: October 11, 2018, 10:26:45 pm »

Move this one all the way to Safe R.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #5 on: October 11, 2018, 10:32:47 pm »

Shut down the New York Times.
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Senate/SCOTUS/EC Delenda Est 👁
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« Reply #6 on: October 11, 2018, 10:34:45 pm »

This one is moving away from Bredesen fast.

Is there any recent finance data on this race? Blackburn had a major CoH advantage at last report in July, and if that's still true I'm inclined to think this could be over in as little as a week.

CoH is not a constraint for Bredesen...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phil_Bredesen

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History505
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« Reply #7 on: October 11, 2018, 10:37:20 pm »

Even if you cut the lead in half, Blackburn would still be leading by 7. She looks to be on track to win.
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Ronnie
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« Reply #8 on: October 11, 2018, 10:49:47 pm »
« Edited: October 11, 2018, 10:57:32 pm by Ronnie »

Did Bredi really think Dems would bust down doors to vote for him after he came out in support of Kavanaugh?  I am not surprised in the least that he appears to have collapsed.
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Badger
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« Reply #9 on: October 11, 2018, 11:31:39 pm »

Blackburn is most likely ahead, but this poll is perhaps second only to the 1 showing tester up 26 points as joke of the year.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #10 on: October 12, 2018, 01:59:26 am »

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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #11 on: October 12, 2018, 02:12:37 am »

These are not the trendlines you want to see if you're Phil Bredesen. This one is over.

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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #12 on: October 12, 2018, 02:15:14 am »

Another former Gov running for office doesn't pan out, Strickland, Thompson and now Bredesen😶

You forgot Bayh, Allen, Lingle, Kerrey, and Pawlenty.

I wonder if Mike Beebe will join this esteemed group of individuals next.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #13 on: October 12, 2018, 03:13:50 am »

Another former Gov running for office doesn't pan out, Strickland, Thompson and now Bredesen😶

You forgot Bayh, Allen, Lingle, Kerrey, and Pawlenty.

I wonder if Mike Beebe will join this esteemed group of individuals next.

Why have retreads been such failures?
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○∙◄☻tπ[╪AV┼cV└
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« Reply #14 on: October 12, 2018, 03:26:43 am »

Another former Gov running for office doesn't pan out, Strickland, Thompson and now Bredesen😶

You forgot Bayh, Allen, Lingle, Kerrey, and Pawlenty.

I wonder if Mike Beebe will join this esteemed group of individuals next.

Why have retreads been such failures?

Funny enough, Bernie lost 6 statewide races before he won 10.
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Democratic Hawk
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« Reply #15 on: October 12, 2018, 04:33:43 am »

Anybody noticed, in this poll, that Democrats comprise only 22% of voters?
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #16 on: October 12, 2018, 06:32:04 am »

Anybody noticed, in this poll, that Democrats comprise only 22% of voters?
Tennessee has open primaries and no party registration. More than 2x as many people voted in the Republican primary than the Democratic primary, many of which were probably independents. To me, 1/5 makes sense when less than 1/3 voted in the Democratic primary this year. Let's remember, TN is a deep red state that actually has a longer history of conservatism than states like Arkansas and West Virginia.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #17 on: October 12, 2018, 08:57:07 am »

Blackburn winning is believable, but her winning by 14 in a Democratic tsunami? Not really. Either this poll is an outlier or polls are underestimating GOP strength in other red states/districts.
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MillennialModerate
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« Reply #18 on: October 12, 2018, 09:08:16 am »

Blackburn winning is believable, but her winning by 14 in a Democratic tsunami? Not really. Either this poll is an outlier or polls are underestimating GOP strength in other red states/districts.

Tsunami?
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Democratic Hawk
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« Reply #19 on: October 12, 2018, 09:30:55 am »

Any[body noticed, in this poll, that Democrats comprise only 22% of voters?
Tennessee has open primaries and no party registration. More than 2x as many people voted in the Republican primary than the Democratic primary, many of which were probably independents. To me, 1/5 makes sense when less than 1/3 voted in the Democratic primary this year. Let's remember, TN is a deep red state that actually has a longer history of conservatism than states like Arkansas and West Virginia.

Must have been a big shift since 2008 when, according to the exit poll Party ID was Democrat 32%; Republican 33% and Independents 35%. 44 % were Conservative

(Seems to be no exit poll data from 2012 and 2016)

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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #20 on: October 12, 2018, 09:35:20 am »

Any[body noticed, in this poll, that Democrats comprise only 22% of voters?
Tennessee has open primaries and no party registration. More than 2x as many people voted in the Republican primary than the Democratic primary, many of which were probably independents. To me, 1/5 makes sense when less than 1/3 voted in the Democratic primary this year. Let's remember, TN is a deep red state that actually has a longer history of conservatism than states like Arkansas and West Virginia.

Must have been a big shift since 2008 when, according to the exit poll Party ID was Democrat 32%; Republican 33% and Independents 35%. 44 % were Conservative

(Seems to be no exit poll data from 2012 and 2016)


Probably a decent shift more Republican (or really, more right-leaning independents) and less Democratic, but even if its say 28% Democratic, Blackburn is still winning by 8. Barring a massive turnaround, this race is pretty much decided.
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Democratic Hawk
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« Reply #21 on: October 12, 2018, 09:38:13 am »


Bayh should never have  retired from the Senate in 2010
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KingSweden
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« Reply #22 on: October 12, 2018, 10:00:32 am »


Nope.
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #23 on: October 12, 2018, 10:14:29 am »

Now Im wondering if running Steve Bullock in Montana against Daines is a good idea?
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #24 on: October 12, 2018, 10:16:04 am »

I don't think this is the end of the story there.

The race will get much closer again by election day.
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