TN: NYT Upshot / Siena : Blackburn +14

[ElectionsGuy]

Any[body noticed, in this poll, that Democrats comprise only 22% of voters?

Tennessee has open primaries and no party registration. More than 2x as many people voted in the Republican primary than the Democratic primary, many of which were probably independents. To me, 1/5 makes sense when less than 1/3 voted in the Democratic primary this year. Let's remember, TN is a deep red state that actually has a longer history of conservatism than states like Arkansas and West Virginia.

Must have been a big shift since 2008 when, according to the exit poll Party ID was Democrat 32%; Republican 33% and Independents 35%. 44 % were Conservative

(Seems to be no exit poll data from 2012 and 2016)

Probably a decent shift more Republican (or really, more right-leaning independents) and less Democratic, but even if its say 28% Democratic, Blackburn is still winning by 8. Barring a massive turnaround, this race is pretty much decided.