What if the 2016 Presidential Election ended with a tied Electoral College?

[NewYorkExpress]

Given how close the most recent Presidential Election was, what if the Electoral College had ended up tied when the Electors met?

Who would the House choose as President, and who would the Senate choose as Vice President?

Personally, I think a deal would be worked out where we'd have Trump as President and Kaine as VP and both would not run for reelection in 2020, but I'm curious as to everyone else's thoughts.

[Orser67]

I think the most likely 269-269 map would have PA, MI, NE-2 flipping to Democrats. In that case, the House results would probably be pretty much unchanged, but Republicans would have a 52-48 majority instead of a 51-49 majority (Toomey would lose in PA). I don't see any reason why the House wouldn't elect Trump and the Senate wouldn't elect Pence, nor do I see why either would agree to serve just one term.

[NewYorkExpress]

I think the most likely 269-269 map would have PA, MI, NE-2 flipping to Democrats. In that case, the House results would probably be pretty much unchanged, but Republicans would have a 52-48 majority instead of a 51-49 majority (Toomey would lose in PA). I don't see any reason why the House wouldn't elect Trump and the Senate wouldn't elect Pence, nor do I see why either would agree to serve just one term.

I can see the Democrats picking off a few extra Senate seats to give them the majority in this scenario, thus making Kaine the VP.

While Kaine (and Pence too for that matter), probably would agree to such a deal, I do understand that Trump might not...unless he thinks it's the only way he'll become President (besides, he can always break his promise after the midterms).

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

It's doubtful that with a tied EC the Dems would gain 3 additional senate Seats, maybe 2 so that the tie results in a vacant Vice Presidency, but not 3. Trump would've won in the House tho.

[Dukakisite1988]

You would have a few GOP House members threatening to vote against Trump......and then chickening out at the last moment.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

You would have a few GOP House members threatening to vote against Trump......and then chickening out at the last moment.

Not quite.  There would have been quite a few who could have voted against Trump without affecting the ultimate result.  The way the House election works, it would have been quite possible for Hillary to get more votes than Trump in the House and still lose.

[NewYorkExpress]

You would have a few GOP House members threatening to vote against Trump......and then chickening out at the last moment.

Not quite.  There would have been quite a few who could have voted against Trump without affecting the ultimate result.  The way the House election works, it would have been quite possible for Hillary to get more votes than Trump in the House and still lose.

Yeah, it's total delegations.

So, for states like Maine, for example, this would be really relevant (though I think Poliquin would have voted for Trump anyways). In a state like say....Utah, it's also possible that everyone votes Clinton or more likely just abstains, given how low a percentage Trump got in the state. Other than that, Trump would generally win Republican, and Clinton would generally win Democrats in the House (with the possible exception of Dan Lipinski).

[Mr. Morden]

I asked about a similar scenario here, supposing that McMullin wins Utah, and Clinton & Trump split the rest so that no one has a majority:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=275622.0

I speculated that if it was actually a secret ballot in the House, then a ton of Republicans would vote for McMullin, just to create a deadlock in the House, that leads to Pence taking over as president, since he wins the VP vote in the Senate.

However, since it's *not* a secret ballot, then that presumably doesn't work.  There wouldn't have been enough #NeverTrump Republicans in the House to block Trump from getting a majority of delegations.

[President Biden Democrat]

The Republican house would vote for Donald Trump and the Incoming senate would decide the VP, in all likelyhood, WI would still election a GOP Senator, so the VP would still be Pence.

[brucejoel99]

Trump/Pence wins. Republicans dominated the states' individual U.S. House delegations 32-18-1 after the 2016 elections, & considering their behavior during the last 2 years, there's no reason to suspect they would've not voted for Trump in 2016's resultant contingent election. Plus, the 52-48 R Senate obviously elects Pence to the vice presidency.