NYT LIVE POLL THREAD 2

[Skye]

We are getting three new ones today:

-The highly requested ME-02 repoll

-The likely D gone tossup seat, FL-27

-The senate race between two Republicans, Arizona(just kidding)

Yay, he heard me!

[MAINEiac4434]

Im going to predict all will have Rs up, and, even if the methodology is garbage, the whole of the forum will be set on fire.

I already have the lighter fluid ready if Golden is down by five or more.

[Senator Incitatus]

So not only does Hurd seem likely to hold on, he could be setting himself up for a future statewide race with numbers like this. (Though that Trump approval makes me a little skeptical.)

And while his numbers (+23) are believable to me, his opponent's are extremely low (-23). Why is that? Any natives of this district familiar with her? Compare it to other districts with clear frontrunners, and there's not usually this wide a gap in candidate favorability.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

So not only does Hurd seem likely to hold on, he could be setting himself up for a future statewide race with numbers like this. (Though that Trump approval makes me a little skeptical.)

And while his numbers (+23) are believable to me, his opponent's are extremely low (-23). Why is that? Any natives of this district familiar with her? Compare it to other districts with clear frontrunners, and there's not usually this wide a gap in candidate favorability.

Why would Trump go from +1 approval in the previous poll of this district to +29?  
In a district that voted for Clinton by 3%.
That sample is just a mess.

[Storr]

So not only does Hurd seem likely to hold on, he could be setting himself up for a future statewide race with numbers like this. (Though that Trump approval makes me a little skeptical.)

And while his numbers (+23) are believable to me, his opponent's are extremely low (-23). Why is that? Any natives of this district familiar with her? Compare it to other districts with clear frontrunners, and there's not usually this wide a gap in candidate favorability.

Why would Trump go from +1 approval in the previous poll of this district to +29?  
In a district that voted for Clinton by 3%.
That sample is just a mess

Many of their samples seem messy, imo.

[Tintrlvr]

So not only does Hurd seem likely to hold on, he could be setting himself up for a future statewide race with numbers like this. (Though that Trump approval makes me a little skeptical.)

And while his numbers (+23) are believable to me, his opponent's are extremely low (-23). Why is that? Any natives of this district familiar with her? Compare it to other districts with clear frontrunners, and there's not usually this wide a gap in candidate favorability.

The poll is super weird. Hurd is not going to win whites 75-17 in this district, e.g.

[bilaps]

First voter in ME is really something. White male without college degree approves of Trump, wants R congress, opposes Collins but supports her vote on supreme court and is almost certain to vote. But he says he's undecided.

[OBD]

Is it just me are is the ME-2 poll super broke

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

So not only does Hurd seem likely to hold on, he could be setting himself up for a future statewide race with numbers like this. (Though that Trump approval makes me a little skeptical.)

And while his numbers (+23) are believable to me, his opponent's are extremely low (-23). Why is that? Any natives of this district familiar with her? Compare it to other districts with clear frontrunners, and there's not usually this wide a gap in candidate favorability.

See my long post on this a page or 2 back. TX-23 seems to have exactly the same issues at the MN-08 poll, for exactly the same reasons.

[bilaps]

Is it just me are is the ME-2 poll super broke

Oh, yes. They have 2 dem voters and 11 undecideds out of 13 people. Probably input error, maybe undecideds are really republicans or they shouldn't be included at all.

[Zaybay]

They fixed it, all those undecideds went to Poliquin.

I have also lost hope in the ME-02 poll, the crosstabs ask for 25% Ds, and 40% Rs(this district still has majority D registration, and the first poll had the much more believable and close 32% Ds, and 33% Rs), so we are going to see another MN-07/TX-23 poll here.

These repolls have been complete failures on the part of NYT.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Nate Cohn has an article on the MN-08 poll. It says basically the same things that I said, except he thinks it is a bit more likely that there was a real shift than I do.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/15/upshot/minnesotas-eighth-district-gop-gains-real-or-not.html

Personally, I wouldn't say that it is necessarily implausible that Stauber could be winning, but if he is, then IMO he was most likely winning before as well, and the first poll was off. But while there could have been some shift, I am skeptical that it was so large.

[MAINEiac4434]

lol siena/nyt

[OneJ]

Why didn't they include a question for the Governor's race in Maine?

[MAINEiac4434]

Why didn't they include a question for the Governor's race in Maine?

because lol nyt/siena

this entire thing is a joke

[Xing]

At least ME-02 appears to be tightening (now Poliquin +6), so I at least have hope that it'll show believable results, rather than MN-08/TX-23 type results.

[Skye]

Why didn't they include a question for the Governor's race in Maine?

because lol nyt/siena

this entire thing is a joke

So the fact that they didn't ask the Governor race in a district makes the whole thing a joke. Gotcha. Of course. Atlas never disappoints.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Why didn't they include a question for the Governor's race in Maine?

because lol nyt/siena

this entire thing is a joke

So the fact that they didn't ask the Governor race in a district makes the whole thing a joke. Gotcha. Of course. Atlas never disappoints.

The first statement and the second statement aren’t necessarily mutually inclusive.

[Devils30]

Way too early but FL-27 not looking terribly promising for the GOP compared to what some expected.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1051936889845022720

[Xing]

Way too early but FL-27 not looking terribly promising for the GOP compared to what some expected.

It seems like Shalala is pretty consistently underperforming Trump's approval (or disapproval, to be honest) by about 10%. While that's evidence of her not being a good candidate, it's almost certainly not enough for her to be in any danger of losing in a Clinton +20 district.

[The Free North]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1051936889845022720

Kim Jong Un style approval ratings.

[MT Treasurer]

Wait, weak candidate Donna Shalala is more likely to win than strong candidate Jared Golden even though Salazar is a strong candidate and Poliquin is a weak incumbent?

[libertpaulian]

Looking at these early numbers, I don't know how in the hell Ileana survived for so long.

[OneJ]

Another issue (unless I'm misunderstanding something) is the map of ME-02. Just look at it. Some of the voters called are shown to be within ME-01 boundaries.