Milwaukee suburbs

[I’m not Stu]

I don't know very much about Wisconsin, but I've heard the Milwaukee suburbs are redder than many rural parts of Wisconsin. Is this true? If so, what is the reason for this?

[TJ in Oregon]

I don't know very much about Wisconsin, but I've heard the Milwaukee suburbs are redder than many rural parts of Wisconsin. Is this true? If so, what is the reason for this?

Yes, it's true and they have fairly consistently been the three most heavily Republican counties in the state of Wisconsin for decades now (Waukesha, Ozaukee, and Washington Counties).

In a post-Trump world, they are no longer No. 1, 2, and 3, but are still very Republican counties and more conservative than rural Wisconsin on the whole.

The reason for this is up for debate, although common explanations are:
1) The class-based voting preferences of manufacturing workers with a suburban managerial class
2) The prevalence of talk radio in the MKE suburbs
3) The prevalence of German ancestry
4) White flight
5) Being fairly religious, except Catholic and conservative Lutherans rather than more stereotypical Evangelicals

The answer is probably some combination of the above.

[RI]

This isn't/wasn't unique to Wisconsin. The Indianapolis suburbs were also more Republican than rural Indiana, at least until recently, and the same could be argued of Cincinnati and maybe Nashville.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

This isn't/wasn't unique to Wisconsin. The Indianapolis suburbs were also more Republican than rural Indiana, at least until recently, and the same could be argued of Cincinnati and maybe Nashville.

Williamson County (wealthy suburban county of Nashville) still votes Republican by significantly more than the state as a whole, even for Trump.

[Adam Griffin]

This isn't/wasn't unique to Wisconsin. The Indianapolis suburbs were also more Republican than rural Indiana, at least until recently, and the same could be argued of Cincinnati and maybe Nashville.

Williamson County (wealthy suburban county of Nashville) still votes Republican by significantly more than the state as a whole, even for Trump.

It's also still the case in a variety of other states, including GA - even in 2016:

Suburbs: 70-26 Trump
Rural: 66-32 Trump

Even if you take out every rural county Clinton won from the "rural" column, it's still 70-27 Trump (i.e. slightly more Democratic than the suburbs).

It's also worth pointing out that there are still 7 states where the rural areas are more Democratic than the combined suburban/urban areas.

[I’m not Stu]

This isn't/wasn't unique to Wisconsin. The Indianapolis suburbs were also more Republican than rural Indiana, at least until recently, and the same could be argued of Cincinnati and maybe Nashville.

Williamson County (wealthy suburban county of Nashville) still votes Republican by significantly more than the state as a whole, even for Trump.

It's also still the case in a variety of other states, including GA - even in 2016:

Suburbs: 70-26 Trump
Rural: 66-32 Trump

Even if you take out every rural county Clinton won from the "rural" column, it's still 70-27 Trump (i.e. slightly more Democratic than the suburbs).

It's also worth pointing out that there are still 7 states where the rural areas are more Democratic than the combined suburban/urban areas.

Are the rural areas of Georgia more Democratic than the suburbs due to having a larger black population (which is common in the Deep South)?

[Adam Griffin]

This isn't/wasn't unique to Wisconsin. The Indianapolis suburbs were also more Republican than rural Indiana, at least until recently, and the same could be argued of Cincinnati and maybe Nashville.

Williamson County (wealthy suburban county of Nashville) still votes Republican by significantly more than the state as a whole, even for Trump.

It's also still the case in a variety of other states, including GA - even in 2016:

Suburbs: 70-26 Trump
Rural: 66-32 Trump

Even if you take out every rural county Clinton won from the "rural" column, it's still 70-27 Trump (i.e. slightly more Democratic than the suburbs).

It's also worth pointing out that there are still 7 states where the rural areas are more Democratic than the combined suburban/urban areas.

Are the rural areas of Georgia more Democratic than the suburbs due to having a larger black population (which is common in the Deep South)?

Yes, but it's not nearly as big of a factor as you might think (especially prior to 2016). As demonstrated above, taking out all of the Democratic-majority rural areas (where the largest concentrations of rural black voters live, obviously) from rural GA shifts the needle less than 10 points - and while many rural parts of Georgia are blacker than its suburbs, the whitest parts of Georgia are also in rural areas.

Additionally, you can see that there wasn't much difference in the white vote percentages in 2012 & 2014 between large segments of rural GA and the inner suburban counties of Atlanta and beyond (though 2016 certainly produced a larger difference). Look at places like Cobb, Henry and Gwinnett and compare them to rural North GA; and those rural whites were definitely more Democratic than the suburban whites in places like Cherokee, Forsyth and Hall:

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[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

I don't know very much about Wisconsin, but I've heard the Milwaukee suburbs are redder than many rural parts of Wisconsin. Is this true? If so, what is the reason for this?

Yes, it's true and they have fairly consistently been the three most heavily Republican counties in the state of Wisconsin for decades now (Waukesha, Ozaukee, and Washington Counties).

In a post-Trump world, they are no longer No. 1, 2, and 3, but are still very Republican counties and more conservative than rural Wisconsin on the whole.

The reason for this is up for debate, although common explanations are:
1) The class-based voting preferences of manufacturing workers with a suburban managerial class
2) The prevalence of talk radio in the MKE suburbs
3) The prevalence of German ancestry
4) White flight
5) Being fairly religious, except Catholic and conservative Lutherans rather than more stereotypical Evangelicals

The answer is probably some combination of the above.

Are you suggesting that the presence of a suburban managerial class shifts the overall vote of manufacturing workers R? Or that both groups happen to be more R than expected?

[Indy Texas]

There is a racial component to the Milwaukee-versus-its-suburbs political dynamic that is unusual for an Upper Midwestern city and is really more comparable to a Southern one.

Compare the voting habits of white suburbanites in the Milwaukee area to the voting habits of white suburbanites in the Twin Cities or Chicagoland.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

There is a racial component to the Milwaukee-versus-its-suburbs political dynamic that is unusual for an Upper Midwestern city and is really more comparable to a Southern one.

Compare the voting habits of white suburbanites in the Milwaukee area to the voting habits of white suburbanites in the Twin Cities or Chicagoland.

The WOW area doesn't have the affinity to Milwaukee the way Chicagoland Burbs do toward Chicago.

[DC Al Fine]

I don't know very much about Wisconsin, but I've heard the Milwaukee suburbs are redder than many rural parts of Wisconsin. Is this true? If so, what is the reason for this?

Yes, it's true and they have fairly consistently been the three most heavily Republican counties in the state of Wisconsin for decades now (Waukesha, Ozaukee, and Washington Counties).

In a post-Trump world, they are no longer No. 1, 2, and 3, but are still very Republican counties and more conservative than rural Wisconsin on the whole.

The reason for this is up for debate, although common explanations are:
1) The class-based voting preferences of manufacturing workers with a suburban managerial class
2) The prevalence of talk radio in the MKE suburbs
3) The prevalence of German ancestry
4) White flight
5) Being fairly religious, except Catholic and conservative Lutherans rather than more stereotypical Evangelicals

The answer is probably some combination of the above.

Are you suggesting that the presence of a suburban managerial class shifts the overall vote of manufacturing workers R? Or that both groups happen to be more R than expected?

I think he just means right leaning managers tend to live in the WOW counties.

[Mr. Morden]

IIRC, Trump got the lowest %age of the vote in Waukesha County of any GOP presidential nominee since Dole in 1996......which is kind of remarkable, considering that Trump won the state overall, in contrast to all of those other nominees.  Obviously the gap between the Milwaukee suburbs and WI rural areas has shrunken at least somewhat with Trump.

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

I don't know very much about Wisconsin, but I've heard the Milwaukee suburbs are redder than many rural parts of Wisconsin. Is this true? If so, what is the reason for this?

Yes, it's true and they have fairly consistently been the three most heavily Republican counties in the state of Wisconsin for decades now (Waukesha, Ozaukee, and Washington Counties).

In a post-Trump world, they are no longer No. 1, 2, and 3, but are still very Republican counties and more conservative than rural Wisconsin on the whole.

The reason for this is up for debate, although common explanations are:
1) The class-based voting preferences of manufacturing workers with a suburban managerial class
2) The prevalence of talk radio in the MKE suburbs
3) The prevalence of German ancestry
4) White flight
5) Being fairly religious, except Catholic and conservative Lutherans rather than more stereotypical Evangelicals

The answer is probably some combination of the above.

Are you suggesting that the presence of a suburban managerial class shifts the overall vote of manufacturing workers R? Or that both groups happen to be more R than expected?

I think he just means right leaning managers tend to live in the WOW counties.

That's true for suburban areas everywhere though.

What makes the Milwaukee metro unique is that, in the not so distant past, it had a thriving white working class culture founded upon trade unions and socialism but, in relatively short order, the progeny of this culture went from being staunch socialists to being rock-ribbed, ultra-conservative Republicans... Basically if I had to summarize my argument:
1. Culturally, the WOW counties are filled with the grandchildren and great-grandchildren of socialists and remain more downscale/working class than you might think. So why are these counties so Republican? The suburbs surrounding Gary or Cleveland might be more Republican than the core but they're ultimately still Democratic. Why is Milwaukee different?
2. As an attempt at answer, I'd argue that Milwaukee lacked cultural characteristics of Gary and Cleveland that made the Democratic Party so durable there. Namely, there was a lack of industrial unions and, something not considered in the post above, far fewer Catholics or "ethnic whites" in the Milwaukee metro area. The Catholic issue probably matters when one contrasts Cudahy with the WOW counties; Cudahy is quite Polish and still is relatively Democratic for a white town. WOW counties are pretty Protestant.
3. White collar workers in WOW counties are almost certainly either part of management linked to industrial production or part of the general cultural milieu. In otherwords, they're likely incredibly hostile to unions and any party aligned with union interests.

[smoltchanov]

There is a racial component to the Milwaukee-versus-its-suburbs political dynamic that is unusual for an Upper Midwestern city and is really more comparable to a Southern one.

Compare the voting habits of white suburbanites in the Milwaukee area to the voting habits of white suburbanites in the Twin Cities or Chicagoland.

Racial? Good. But Bucks county in Pennsylvania is also very white (IIRC), and suburban, but votes differently. Why?

[TJ in Oregon]

I don't know very much about Wisconsin, but I've heard the Milwaukee suburbs are redder than many rural parts of Wisconsin. Is this true? If so, what is the reason for this?

Yes, it's true and they have fairly consistently been the three most heavily Republican counties in the state of Wisconsin for decades now (Waukesha, Ozaukee, and Washington Counties).

In a post-Trump world, they are no longer No. 1, 2, and 3, but are still very Republican counties and more conservative than rural Wisconsin on the whole.

The reason for this is up for debate, although common explanations are:
1) The class-based voting preferences of manufacturing workers with a suburban managerial class
2) The prevalence of talk radio in the MKE suburbs
3) The prevalence of German ancestry
4) White flight
5) Being fairly religious, except Catholic and conservative Lutherans rather than more stereotypical Evangelicals

The answer is probably some combination of the above.

Are you suggesting that the presence of a suburban managerial class shifts the overall vote of manufacturing workers R? Or that both groups happen to be more R than expected?

I think he just means right leaning managers tend to live in the WOW counties.

That's true for suburban areas everywhere though.

What makes the Milwaukee metro unique is that, in the not so distant past, it had a thriving white working class culture founded upon trade unions and socialism but, in relatively short order, the progeny of this culture went from being staunch socialists to being rock-ribbed, ultra-conservative Republicans... Basically if I had to summarize my argument:
1. Culturally, the WOW counties are filled with the grandchildren and great-grandchildren of socialists and remain more downscale/working class than you might think. So why are these counties so Republican? The suburbs surrounding Gary or Cleveland might be more Republican than the core but they're ultimately still Democratic. Why is Milwaukee different?
2. As an attempt at answer, I'd argue that Milwaukee lacked cultural characteristics of Gary and Cleveland that made the Democratic Party so durable there. Namely, there was a lack of industrial unions and, something not considered in the post above, far fewer Catholics or "ethnic whites" in the Milwaukee metro area. The Catholic issue probably matters when one contrasts Cudahy with the WOW counties; Cudahy is quite Polish and still is relatively Democratic for a white town. WOW counties are pretty Protestant.
3. White collar workers in WOW counties are almost certainly either part of management linked to industrial production or part of the general cultural milieu. In otherwords, they're likely incredibly hostile to unions and any party aligned with union interests.

What I meant to say is that the manufacturing managerial class tends to live in the WOW counties, while more blue collar workers tend to live in Milwaukee County. Unlike other sectors, the managerial class of midwestern manufacturing still is largely conservative. The suburbs of many other cities have more of a new-economy based employment profile, whose managerial class is much more liberal.

The WOW counties aren't significantly less Catholic than metro Cleveland, and more Catholic (according to ARDA, Waukesha County is 30% Catholic and Cuyahoga is 33% Catholic). None of the counties adjacent to Cleveland are appreciably more Catholic either.

There is a difference in ethnicity, though. Cleveland's Catholics are more Irish, Polish, Italian, Eastern European, etc., whereas Milwaukee's Catholics are predominantly German. And, as DFB pointed out, some of the suburbs that are more Polish aren't as Republican, although in the case of Cudahy that is largely explainable by class. German Catholics have long been more Republican than Catholics of other ethnic backgrounds, so it's not surprising that a city where many, if not most, of the Catholics are of German ancestry would be more Republicans.

[Scottholes 2.0]

As a Wisconsinite, I think the WOW counties are becoming less Republican thanks to Trump. I've been canvassing throughout Ozaukee County and have been shocked at the number of Tony Evers and Tammy Baldwin yard signs - I estimate I've come across at least 70 and fewer Vukmir signs. I've even met at least three Walker-Evers voters on my door-to-door knocking spree. So, it makes sense as to why Walker is trailing among the college-educated in the latest polls comparision to before.

I haven't been to Waukehsa or Washington Counties that much, but I have seen mostly Vukmir yard signs in Brookfield and Pewaukee and no Baldwin yard signs, so I think Ozaukee County is following the trend of college-educated suburbanties shfiting towards the Democratic Party more than Waukesha and Washington County.

[Gass3268]

Yeah, Ozaukee is going to flip Democrat sometime in the next 15 years. I view it as a logical extension of the increasing blue margins in Northeast Milwaukee County suburbs (Whitefish Bay, Shorewood, Glendale, Bayside, etc). A Democrat might actually knock off a gerrymandered seat that straddles the two in the State Assembly this year.

I also wouldn't be shocked if Waukesha County starts to only vote for Republicans more narrowly then they have in the recent past. Like high 50's.

[Tekken_Guy]

Waukesha and Ozaukee are in the same category as counties like Delaware County in Ohio or Hamilton County in Indiana. They all swung hard against Trump, but since they were so Republican to begin with it was not enough to flip it, and there are still rural blue-collar areas in those counties that saved him there.

[RINO Tom]

Waukesha and Ozaukee are in the same category as counties like Delaware County in Ohio or Hamilton County in Indiana. They all swung hard against Trump, but since they were so Republican to begin with it was not enough to flip it, and there are still rural blue-collar areas in those counties that saved him there.

The rural areas didn't "save" him, because he didn't need them to win the counties...?

[Skye]

There is a very well written article that explains this in depth:

http://archive.jsonline.com/news/statepolitics/democratic-republican-voters-worlds-apart-in-divided-wisconsin-b99249564z1-255883361.html/

[Gass3268]

There is a very well written article that explains this in depth:

http://archive.jsonline.com/news/statepolitics/democratic-republican-voters-worlds-apart-in-divided-wisconsin-b99249564z1-255883361.html/

This article was great at the time, but it's already outdated compared to what we saw in 2016 and what we are seeing in some polling for this year.

[Scottholes 2.0]

There is a very well written article that explains this in depth:

http://archive.jsonline.com/news/statepolitics/democratic-republican-voters-worlds-apart-in-divided-wisconsin-b99249564z1-255883361.html/

This article was great at the time, but it's already outdated compared to what we saw in 2016 and what we are seeing in some polling for this year.

What kind of polling results, if I may ask?

[Indy Texas]

There is a racial component to the Milwaukee-versus-its-suburbs political dynamic that is unusual for an Upper Midwestern city and is really more comparable to a Southern one.

Compare the voting habits of white suburbanites in the Milwaukee area to the voting habits of white suburbanites in the Twin Cities or Chicagoland.

The WOW area doesn't have the affinity to Milwaukee the way Chicagoland Burbs do toward Chicago.

Yes, and why do you think that is?

[Tekken_Guy]

Waukesha and Ozaukee are in the same category as counties like Delaware County in Ohio or Hamilton County in Indiana. They all swung hard against Trump, but since they were so Republican to begin with it was not enough to flip it, and there are still rural blue-collar areas in those counties that saved him there.

The rural areas didn't "save" him, because he didn't need them to win the counties...?

What I was actually trying o say is that the rural areas in the counties pulled him to a decisive victory there. The suburban areas swung against him although in many he still won narrowly.