MOScout McCaskill +3 in SD 22

[jamestroll]

https://static1.squarespace.com/static/59015f4b37c581b2ce01e5b3/t/5bc1da8e652deab94f127930/1539431056356/MOScout+Weekly+Poll+-+Senate+22+-+10.13.18.pdf

McCaskill 50%
Hawley 47%

Fairly good bellwhether for the state.

Though Democrats are 10 points behind to retake that state senate seat.

But good news is that the cross tabs for HD 97, which Democrats won in a special election earlier this year, are quite good for Democrats.

[Senator Incitatus]

For those unfamiliar (as I was before a quick Google search), this district is the northern half of Jefferson County, meaning it contains some of St. Louis's outer southern suburbs, centered in the city of Arnold (pop. 20,808) with the Twin Cities (pop. 16,457) further downriver. It is the childhood home of New Jersey Sen. Bill Bradley.

In 2006, the district was flipped Democratic by +20.74 against an incumbent Republican.
In 2010, the Democrat was re-elected by a margin of +5.14.
In 2012, Romney won this district +13.09, but McCaskill also won it +13.16. On average across all races, it was R+3.
In 2014, it was won by the Republican +8.38 in an open race.
In 2016, this district was a landslide for Trump, +33.66.

Each Senate candidate could probably spin it how they want, depending on what they think the overall statewide map looks like.

[Xing]

I get that this is an important district, but it's really much more useful to look at statewide polls.

[windjammer]

Is it really difficult to poll Missouri as a whole?

[IceSpear]

Well, I moved this to safe R based off the last Missouri state Senate district poll, but I guess I'm now gonna have to move it to safe D based off this Missouri state Senate district poll.

[Senator Incitatus]

I get that this is an important district, but it's really much more useful to look at statewide polls.

It is, but statewide polls and this one show the same thing. The race is a true toss-up.

(That other Hawley +6 SD34 poll is another story.)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Great news for McCaskill

[SnowLabrador]

My prediction is McCaskill +1.5.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I was happy to see this poll until I noticed the SD 22 part. Just poll the whole damn state!

[Ebsy]

I was happy to see this poll until I noticed the SD 22 part. Just poll the whole damn state!

Dave is commissioning these polls for the State Senate numbers, not the Senate head to head.

[MT Treasurer]

What xingkerui said, and let’s not pretend that people actually care about polls when they’re making predictions for this race.