1976: Reagan wins the Republican nomination. Then what?

[yakutia]

In the 1976 Republican Primaries, Reagan was incredibly close to beating Gerald Ford. Assuming he wins the election similarly to 1980, what would come next? What affect would it have on future events if there is no Jimmy Carter and Reagan comes 4 years earlier?

[NewYorkExpress]

I'm not sure Reagan would have won in November either.

While it would have been harder to tie him to Nixon, it would have been easier for Carter to attack him as an extremist (which he tried to do in 1980 and failed because the fundamentals were so heavily against Democrats).

It would have come down to running mate choices. If Reagan picks a conservative, like Dole, he loses, but if he picks a moderate like Schweiker or Javits, he wins.

Either way, Carter probably wins the popular vote by a very slim margin.

[Lechasseur]

Carter does better than he did against Ford.

[Politician]

[President Johnson]

That's really a tough call. I think he might have won, or might have lost. He was still seen as too far right, but had more charisma than Ford.

Dw93 wrote a beautiful timeline on a history blog that Reagan loses in 1976 and Gerald Ford returns to office in 1980. Reagan becomes his appointed vice president after Jack Kemp is shot.

[Sir Mohamed]

Reagan's charisma and his outsider image narrowly gets him over the edge.

✓ Governor Ronald Reagan (R-CA)/Senator Richard Schweiker (R-PA): 278 EVs.; 49.5%
Former Governor Jimmy Carter (D-GA)/Senator Walter Mondale (D-MN): 260 EVs.; 49.0%


However, because the 1977-81 is extremely difficult both at home and abroad (economy, Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, Iran; I think that had happened regardless of who's prez), Reagan's reelection is doomed. He loses if Dems come up with a strong candidate.

✓ Former Governor Reubin Askew (D-FL)/Senator John Glenn (D-OH): 323 EVs.; 51.2%
President Ronald Reagan (R-CA)/Vice President Richard Schweiker (R-PA): 215 EVs.; 46.4%

[Cold War Liberal]

I'm not sure Reagan would have won in November either.

While it would have been harder to tie him to Nixon, it would have been easier for Carter to attack him as an extremist (which he tried to do in 1980 and failed because the fundamentals were so heavily against Democrats).

It would have come down to running mate choices. If Reagan picks a conservative, like Dole, he loses, but if he picks a moderate like Schweiker or Javits, he wins.

Either way, Carter probably wins the popular vote by a very slim margin.

Reagan's VP pick is a double-edged sword. If he picks Dole, he doubles down on conservatism, further alienating moderates; if he picks Schweiker (as he was set to do), it's seen as a betrayal by conservatives (as it actually was) and he also probably can't convince enough moderates to turn out for him since Reagan's at the top of the ticket. Reagan probably loses, and by a decent margin too.