MN-Change Research: Klobuchar +9, Smith +3
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 18, 2024, 06:08:06 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2018 Senatorial Election Polls
  MN-Change Research: Klobuchar +9, Smith +3		 « previous next »
Pages: 1 [2]
Author Topic: MN-Change Research: Klobuchar +9, Smith +3  (Read 1998 times)
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,068
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #25 on: October 14, 2018, 07:47:06 PM »
Logged
Ebsy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,001
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #26 on: October 14, 2018, 07:57:29 PM »
How do you take a poll and have 5 percent of respondents claim they are going to vote for the Legal Marijuana Now party?
Logged
Vern
vern1988
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,182
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.30, S: -0.70

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #27 on: October 14, 2018, 09:20:14 PM »
Funny thing is, in 2016 when these no named "junk" polls where showing Trump and Republicans doing well. Atlas said it was wrong. But Atlas turned out to be the wrong ones.
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,083


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #28 on: October 14, 2018, 09:26:24 PM »
Quote from: Representative Vern on October 14, 2018, 09:20:14 PM
Funny thing is, in 2016 when these no named "junk" polls where showing Trump and Republicans doing well. Atlas said it was wrong. But Atlas turned out to be the wrong ones.

This comment is all types of wrong though. And void of context. Take Ohio, where there were a bunch of polls saying Trump would win.

This is literally the first poll in a number of polls that shows the Dems doing that badly. So for now, it's an outlier, plain and simple
Logged
henster
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,984


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #29 on: October 14, 2018, 09:31:02 PM »
Do people forget Dems already outvoted Republicans like 2-1 in the primary.
Logged
Vern
vern1988
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,182
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.30, S: -0.70

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #30 on: October 14, 2018, 09:32:41 PM »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on October 14, 2018, 09:26:24 PM
Quote from: Representative Vern on October 14, 2018, 09:20:14 PM
Funny thing is, in 2016 when these no named "junk" polls where showing Trump and Republicans doing well. Atlas said it was wrong. But Atlas turned out to be the wrong ones.

This comment is all types of wrong though. And void of context. Take Ohio, where there were a bunch of polls saying Trump would win.

This is literally the first poll in a number of polls that shows the Dems doing that badly. So for now, it's an outlier, plain and simple

No one on Atlas was saying Clinton would win Ohio. But when polls showed MI,WI and PA close or for Trump, Atlas freaked out saying it was wrong and an outlier. Don't get me wrong, this poll could well be wrong. But my point is, Atlas is so quick to call a poll a "junk" poll when it doesn't show the results they like or think will happen.
Logged
Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,303
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #31 on: October 14, 2018, 09:37:37 PM »
Quote from: Representative Vern on October 14, 2018, 09:32:41 PM
But my point is, Atlas is so quick to call a poll a "junk" poll when it doesn't show the results they like or think will happen.

While that's true of some users, that doesn't mean that they don't sometimes happen to be right (e.g. a poll showing Trump slightly ahead in Oregon.)
Logged
Vern
vern1988
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,182
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.30, S: -0.70

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #32 on: October 14, 2018, 09:41:00 PM »
Quote from: Reasonable™ Moderate Republican on October 14, 2018, 09:37:37 PM
Quote from: Representative Vern on October 14, 2018, 09:32:41 PM
But my point is, Atlas is so quick to call a poll a "junk" poll when it doesn't show the results they like or think will happen.

While that's true of some users, that doesn't mean that they don't sometimes happen to be right (e.g. a poll showing Trump slightly ahead in Oregon.)

This is true, that is why polls should be looked at together with others for trends. Because at the end of the day, we truly don't know what will happen.
Logged
pops
katman46
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 770


Political Matrix
E: -7.00, S: 4.00

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #33 on: October 14, 2018, 09:59:15 PM »
« Edited: October 14, 2018, 10:09:02 PM by katman46 »
Seems like garbage, but this poll has piqued my interest nonetheless. Taking it with a grain of salt without ignoring it is probably the best thing to do in this case.

EDIT: Before someone says anything, I'll just leave this here.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=251467.0
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=251497.0
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=250938.0

Say something if you want more
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,427
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #34 on: October 14, 2018, 10:09:13 PM »
Quote from: katman46 on October 14, 2018, 09:59:15 PM
Seems like garbage, but this poll has piqued my interest nonetheless. Taking it with a grain of salt without ignoring it is probably the best thing to do in this case.

EDIT: Before someone says anything, I'll just leave this here.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=251467.0
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=251497.0

The Senate is tilting more towards the GOP, and MN is becoming competetive again. Dems need to hold 48 seats to have a chance in 2020.
Logged
Vern
vern1988
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,182
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.30, S: -0.70

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #35 on: October 14, 2018, 10:09:36 PM »
Quote from: katman46 on October 14, 2018, 09:59:15 PM
Seems like garbage, but this poll has piqued my interest nonetheless. Taking it with a grain of salt without ignoring it is probably the best thing to do in this case.

EDIT: Before someone says anything, I'll just leave this here.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=251467.0
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=251497.0

Them links are my point.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,178
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #36 on: October 14, 2018, 11:03:10 PM »
Logged
they don't love you like i love you
BRTD
Atlas Prophet
*****
Posts: 112,935
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.50, S: -6.67

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #37 on: October 14, 2018, 11:05:30 PM »
This was an online poll. LOL.
Logged
ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #38 on: October 14, 2018, 11:06:41 PM »
Quote from: katman46 on October 14, 2018, 09:59:15 PM
Seems like garbage, but this poll has piqued my interest nonetheless. Taking it with a grain of salt without ignoring it is probably the best thing to do in this case.

EDIT: Before someone says anything, I'll just leave this here.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=251467.0
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=251497.0
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=250938.0

Say something if you want more

Those polls weren’t conducted by online-only pollsters with histories of massive miss after massive miss after massive miss.
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,068
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #39 on: October 14, 2018, 11:13:07 PM »
tbf, not all online polls are junk, but online polling is a lot easier to screw up if you're not super careful.
Logged
pops
katman46
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 770


Political Matrix
E: -7.00, S: 4.00

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #40 on: October 14, 2018, 11:23:31 PM »
Quote from: ON Progressive on October 14, 2018, 11:06:41 PM
Quote from: katman46 on October 14, 2018, 09:59:15 PM
Seems like garbage, but this poll has piqued my interest nonetheless. Taking it with a grain of salt without ignoring it is probably the best thing to do in this case.

EDIT: Before someone says anything, I'll just leave this here.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=251467.0
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=251497.0
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=250938.0

Say something if you want more

Those polls weren’t conducted by online-only pollsters with histories of massive miss after massive miss after massive miss.

https://www.scribd.com/document/386749892/FL-Gov-Change-Research-D-for-Andrew-Gillum-August-2018
Logged
ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #41 on: October 14, 2018, 11:46:09 PM »
Quote from: katman46 on October 14, 2018, 11:23:31 PM
Quote from: ON Progressive on October 14, 2018, 11:06:41 PM
Quote from: katman46 on October 14, 2018, 09:59:15 PM
Seems like garbage, but this poll has piqued my interest nonetheless. Taking it with a grain of salt without ignoring it is probably the best thing to do in this case.

EDIT: Before someone says anything, I'll just leave this here.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=251467.0
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=251497.0
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=250938.0

Say something if you want more

Those polls weren’t conducted by online-only pollsters with histories of massive miss after massive miss after massive miss.

https://www.scribd.com/document/386749892/FL-Gov-Change-Research-D-for-Andrew-Gillum-August-2018

Like I said earlier:
Quote from: ON Progressive on October 14, 2018, 05:22:16 PM
Even with Gillum, they overstated his lead by 7 points.

Also, that still doesn’t explain away big misses in IL-03 (D primary), VA-Gov (D primary), MI-Gov (D primary) and AL-Sen.
Logged
Wisconsin+17
Ben Kenobi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,134
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #42 on: October 15, 2018, 12:29:03 AM »
I believe I called these results last week that the MN senate open seat was close. Glad to see a poll confirming my suspicions.

Trump lost MN by a point. Hardly a stretch to have D+3 here.
Logged
ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #43 on: October 15, 2018, 12:33:12 AM »
Quote from: IDS Ex-Speaker Ben Kenobi on October 15, 2018, 12:29:03 AM
I believe I called these results last week that the MN senate open seat was close. Glad to see a poll confirming my suspicions.

Trump lost MN by a point. Hardly a stretch to have D+3 here.

Senator Roy Moore agrees your predictions are extremely accurate.
Logged
they don't love you like i love you
BRTD
Atlas Prophet
*****
Posts: 112,935
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.50, S: -6.67

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #44 on: October 15, 2018, 12:37:09 AM »
I repeat:

THIS IS AN ONLINE POLL
Logged
Sir Mohamed
MohamedChalid
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,625
United States



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #45 on: October 15, 2018, 01:56:56 AM »
In your guts, you know this ONLINE poll is nuts.
Logged
politicallefty
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,232
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.87, S: -9.22

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #46 on: October 15, 2018, 02:48:00 AM »
I don't know about Smith, but I expect Klobucher to get close to her 2012 performance. I'm not sure if she can win by 35-points again, but I think she wins by at least 30%. That alone sends this poll into the trash for me.
Logged
Ban my account ffs!
snowguy716
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,632
Austria


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #47 on: October 16, 2018, 01:58:27 PM »
Klobuchar will approach 65% and Smith will be in the upper 50s.  Her opponent just had some rough stuff surface.  Karin Housley compared Michelle Obama’s face to a chimp.  Ellison will also win.  His opponent is batsh**t crazy and despite campaigning with a message of ‘taking politics out of the AGs office’ he told a fundraising crowd he’d immediately fire 42 DFL lawyers and replace them with Republicans.  The 45+ year DFL hold on MN AG will hold.
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,083


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #48 on: October 16, 2018, 04:06:21 PM »
Quote from: IDS Ex-Speaker Ben Kenobi on October 15, 2018, 12:29:03 AM
I believe I called these results last week that the MN senate open seat was close. Glad to see a poll confirming my suspicions.

Trump lost MN by a point. Hardly a stretch to have D+3 here.

and his nationwide approval is -10/-11, so D+3 would be a stretch.
Logged
Jags
Rookie
**
Posts: 174


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #49 on: October 16, 2018, 05:56:38 PM »
Quote from: Snowguy716 on October 16, 2018, 01:58:27 PM
Klobuchar will approach 65% and Smith will be in the upper 50s.  Her opponent just had some rough stuff surface.  Karin Housley compared Michelle Obama’s face to a chimp.  Ellison will also win.  His opponent is batsh**t crazy and despite campaigning with a message of ‘taking politics out of the AGs office’ he told a fundraising crowd he’d immediately fire 42 DFL lawyers and replace them with Republicans.  The 45+ year DFL hold on MN AG will hold.
Logged
Pages: 1 [2]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.066 seconds with 12 queries.