Opinion of the previous poster's very first post on Atlas

[NOVA Green]

Eh, OR-02 looking at a map ended up going for Obama. I can see where you came from in that analysis, though.

*** SKIP ***

To be Fair (TBF), as an Individual who was not of voting age when Jesse Jackson was running against Dukakis in '88, there were massive "Super Rallies" that I attended as a Teenager in Football Stadiums in the major College Towns of Oregon, as well as Factory Cities and Timber Communities across Oregon, I could not perceive a scenario where Obama might we able to defeat HRC in OR CD-02 in the DEM primaries, despite margins in Ashland, Bend, Hood River, and other Democratic strongholds within the District.

Obama won heavily against HRC in '08 in the DEM Primary, even within those Communities in which she was expected to exceed, including OR CD-02....

Although my analysis might have been slightly off from actual results, I suspect that this is partially because I overestimated HRC support in the Cities of Medford, Redmond, as well as in the "Grain Belt" of the Columbia River Valley, etc....

Still, any way you look at it, it's pretty crazy that an overwhelmingly White Population, with only a relatively small numbers of Minority Voters, supported a Black Man for President representing the Democratic Party for the highest office in the land....

Jesse Jackson bagged ~ 43% of the Democratic Party Votes for President in '88 in Oregon, where quite frankly in order to get to a Black Majority population one would have to head up into precincts in the Albina District of Portland...

https://blackpast.org/aaw/albina-portland-1870

Maybe flip over into the Dock Districts of North Portland, where historical communities have been destroyed at the hands of Gentrification and Capitalism, destroying historic Black Communities that were created to provide housing to Defense and Port Workers, as part of an Existential War against Japanese Imperialism....

Anyways... getting a bit OT here (Old Man speaking), but reality is that 1988 Jesse Jackson most likely had his best performance among "White Voters" of any State in the US in a Democratic Primary...

Sure, it's the end of the line.... trot trot... end of the race, down to a two person showdown.... huff-puff... race... one foot over another.

Oregon May Primaries, latest in the Country... used to be historical back in the days....

Once Again, a Black Man running for President of the United States as a Democratic Candidate, performed better in Oregon than just about any other state in the Union...

I did not expect these results from the '08 DEM Primary, but in retrospect, it is not surprising....

[Sirius_]

RIP Timeline

[fhtagn]

A decent list of folks who shouldn't run. By now it's probably safe to say none of them will.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

I dislike the word “hate”. Too vitriolic. Or maybe I just dislike emotional commitment.

[Torie]

Ah, alternative time line speculations. Apparently Cath back then had too much time on his hands.

[Sirius_]

Dems only gain 8 in 2006? Lol.

[cinyc]

I agree. It's a list of terrible Democrats who shouldn't run for President.

[morgankingsley]

You were right about Young winning.

My first post is so boring I'm not even expecting a real critique

[Figueira]

Freedom post. It's good to be up front about basic questions you have.

[Sirius_]

You ended up being right.

[TDAS04]

Agreed.  They shouldn't run. 

[Esteemed Jimmy]

Quite Knowledgable

[Roblox]

Solid summarization of yourself I guess.

[OBD]

Welcome?

[cinyc]

Hmmm, interesting.

Interesting, but irrelevant now that Hatch retired and McMullin never ran for Senate from Utah in 2018.

[All Along The Watchtower]

Ah 2008...

[Atlas Force]

It turned out to be Washington lol

[Biden his time]

"White Iverson"? You mean like the kind of Racist Whites Democrats need to stop pandering to if they don't want Republicans to win 10-15 House seats and 5-10 Senate seats?

X-Men: Days of Future Past

Don't know who King Lear is but good post

[Utah Neolib]

Interesting census guessing

[GregTheGreat657]

Reasonable explanation for the unreasonable occuring

[Big Abraham]

A very reasonable prediction.

[It’s so Joever]

Given the political context of August 2018, fair enough. Although even back then I would have argued Mononghalia could be a potential surprise in the best Dem scenario.

[GregTheGreat657]

Based and Messam-pilled

[Gracile]

It's a pretty good prediction for elections in the near future.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Pritzker was kind of a uniquely bad fit for IL-06. He underperformed pretty much every other state-level Democratic candidate in the area in addition to Casten - so it seems a bit fruitless to glean information about the district's political leanings at the federal level from one gubernatorial race. Besides, it was Rauner who beat Pritzker IL-06, not Sanguinetti. There are still a lot of unknowns with Sanguinetti as a candidate in her own right. She is more conservative than Rauner on social issues, and those views will likely harm her should they gain traction.

I would call this race Likely D. Casten does have some incumbency advantage, and I think he has done a good job so far at messaging to the district through town halls and such. Additionally, the fundamentals of the district are going to be tough for Sanguinetti. Trump will almost certainly lose IL-06 in 2020 (with a strong possibility that it will trend further D), and it is hard to imagine any Republican overperforming those headwinds to eke out a win.

Pretty solid analysis