TN Garin-Hart-Yang (Bredesen internal): Blackburn +1
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Author Topic: TN Garin-Hart-Yang (Bredesen internal): Blackburn +1  (Read 6027 times)
TheRocketRaccoon
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« on: October 15, 2018, 07:38:24 AM »
https://www.bredesen.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/1014128-BFS-State-of-Our-Race-Poll-Memos-3.pdf

Blackburn 48
Bredesen 47
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1 on: October 15, 2018, 07:39:22 AM »
Lean R.
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Zaybay
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« Reply #2 on: October 15, 2018, 07:40:09 AM »
Hes so screwed...
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YE
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« Reply #3 on: October 15, 2018, 07:42:56 AM »
If only this was a Blackburn internal...
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JG
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« Reply #4 on: October 15, 2018, 07:43:12 AM »
It's pretty much over for him.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #5 on: October 15, 2018, 07:46:02 AM »

Kirk was up  1 in 2010 in this same poll and won by . 05.  This isn't a typical internal. In IL internal
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Skye
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« Reply #6 on: October 15, 2018, 07:55:05 AM »
Oof. If people suspect you are down, why confirm their thoughts?
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Person Man
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« Reply #7 on: October 15, 2018, 08:01:27 AM »

He's about where Morrisey is in West Virginia.  Where  Morrisey might win if Rs keep the house and the senate is definitely going down if Blackburn does.
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windjammer
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« Reply #8 on: October 15, 2018, 08:02:09 AM »
Yes it's probably over.
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bilaps
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« Reply #9 on: October 15, 2018, 08:16:16 AM »
It will be 7-10 pts for Blackburn at the end and it's optimistic prediction for Bredesen
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Person Man
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« Reply #10 on: October 15, 2018, 08:20:55 AM »
538 has it as a B+ pollster.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #11 on: October 15, 2018, 08:26:41 AM »
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #12 on: October 15, 2018, 08:30:30 AM »
« Edited: October 15, 2018, 08:45:53 AM by wbrocks67 »
Garin-Hart-Yang isnt a typical garbage internal pollster so I would take this with a little more legitimacy than normal.

What's interesting is that they had it at Bredesen +2 in September when that appears where polls were. So it's definitely possible Blackburn up a few % is where this is right now. The NYT poll was obviously an outlier.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #13 on: October 15, 2018, 08:31:10 AM »
That means he's currently down by only 2-4% in reality.

Not bad and certainly not down 20 like the Siena poll showed ...
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OneJ
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« Reply #14 on: October 15, 2018, 08:44:40 AM »
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Person Man
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« Reply #15 on: October 15, 2018, 08:45:37 AM »
Quote from: Tender Branson on October 15, 2018, 08:31:10 AM
That means he's currently down by only 2-4% in reality.

Not bad and certainly not down 20 like the Siena poll showed ...
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Beet
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« Reply #16 on: October 15, 2018, 09:10:28 AM »
People are reacting like this is a bad poll for Bredesen when it's a good one. Yes, it's an internal, but if Blackburn's internals are so different why doesn't she release them?
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
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« Reply #17 on: October 15, 2018, 09:11:02 AM »
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UWS
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« Reply #18 on: October 15, 2018, 09:28:05 AM »
Junk polls like this one are so disconnected from reality. Kavanaugh's confirmation has handed this race to Blackburn, giving her a big boost.
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bilaps
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« Reply #19 on: October 15, 2018, 09:44:30 AM »
LOL, this is actualy AVERAGE of their last two polls
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JG
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« Reply #20 on: October 15, 2018, 09:56:40 AM »
Quote from: Beet on October 15, 2018, 09:10:28 AM
People are reacting like this is a bad poll for Bredesen when it's a good one. Yes, it's an internal, but if Blackburn's internals are so different why doesn't she release them?

Because that kind of close lead is exactly the kind of numbers that keep the base optimistic, but not complacent.
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Beet
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« Reply #21 on: October 15, 2018, 10:03:20 AM »
Quote from: JG on October 15, 2018, 09:56:40 AM
Quote from: Beet on October 15, 2018, 09:10:28 AM
People are reacting like this is a bad poll for Bredesen when it's a good one. Yes, it's an internal, but if Blackburn's internals are so different why doesn't she release them?

Because that kind of close lead is exactly the kind of numbers that keep the base optimistic, but not complacent.

It's still worse than her than the Democrats giving up on the race altogether, which is what the 54-40 narrative pushes towards.
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Senator Incitatus
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« Reply #22 on: October 15, 2018, 10:38:23 AM »
Quote from: Stirring Wolf on October 15, 2018, 08:00:11 AM
Pushing the "Don't give up on me, I can still win this." internal narrative.
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #23 on: October 15, 2018, 10:39:22 AM »
Quote from: AMB1996 on October 15, 2018, 10:38:23 AM
Quote from: Stirring Wolf on October 15, 2018, 08:00:11 AM
Pushing the "Don't give up on me, I can still win this." internal narrative.
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Xing
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« Reply #24 on: October 15, 2018, 10:58:28 AM »
So MAYBE he only loses by 5-6%. Most likely more.
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