NV Emerson: UTDH +7

[TheRocketRaccoon]

https://twitter.com/EmersonPolling/status/1051819983494402049

[Zaybay]

Emerson, long time no see. Still making polls, huh. Interesting, interesting.

Call me a skeptic or a hack, but I have some doubts about this Emerson poll.

Edit: Just thought I would mention it, but Emerson is currently giving Dean Heller a better chance to win than Ted Cruz.

[Person Man]

I dunno. maybe the economy is booming there and people think they are well off.

[bilaps]

Looks like Heller does have the lead at the moment. Maybe 2-4 points.

[Yellowhammer]

Memerson

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Emerson, long time no see. Still making polls, huh. Interesting, interesting.

Call me a skeptic or a hack, but I have some doubts about this Emerson poll.

Edit: Just thought I would mention it, but Emerson is currently giving Dean Heller a better chance to win than Ted Cruz.

This poll last month had Sisolak up 10

[Zaybay]

Emerson, long time no see. Still making polls, huh. Interesting, interesting.

Call me a skeptic or a hack, but I have some doubts about this Emerson poll.

Edit: Just thought I would mention it, but Emerson is currently giving Dean Heller a better chance to win than Ted Cruz.

This poll last month had Sisolak up 10

That doesnt help Emerson's case...

[KingSweden]

Be skeptical of Emerson when it shows Democrats up, and be skeptical when it shows Republicans up.

[Person Man]

Emerson, long time no see. Still making polls, huh. Interesting, interesting.

Call me a skeptic or a hack, but I have some doubts about this Emerson poll.

Edit: Just thought I would mention it, but Emerson is currently giving Dean Heller a better chance to win than Ted Cruz.

This poll last month had Sisolak up 10

That doesnt help Emerson's case...

Why would a pollster have such huge swings?

[Zaybay]

Emerson, long time no see. Still making polls, huh. Interesting, interesting.

Call me a skeptic or a hack, but I have some doubts about this Emerson poll.

Edit: Just thought I would mention it, but Emerson is currently giving Dean Heller a better chance to win than Ted Cruz.

This poll last month had Sisolak up 10

That doesnt help Emerson's case...

Why would a pollster have such huge swings?

Its Emerson, thats why.

[wbrocks67]

All I know is that Nevada polls are notoriously iffy. CNN had Trump +6 a week or two before the election. Heller is definitely not up 7 though.

If Heller wins this, then NV Dems really screwed up. And I don't mean by nominating Rosen, just about turning out. Heller is an even worse candidate than Rosen. Rosen seems like a fine candidate, tbh.

[Tender Branson]

Really crappy polls out lately that will have nothing to do with the reality in this election ...

[DaWN]

Not quite as bad as the Tester +23 or Newsom +4, but pretty close to it. Certainly deserves this:

[Free Bird]

Is Emerson known for being too D friendly or just generally wrong?

[Politician]

Is Emerson known for being too D friendly or just generally wrong?

Just generally wrong.

Anyway, Heller won't win by 7, but this is a tossup that both sides have a decent chance of winning. LOL at IceSpear though.

[Zaybay]

Is Emerson known for being too D friendly or just generally wrong?

just generally being wrong. They always get widly wrong results by either
A. Having 40% undecided
B. Having wildly crazy margins and crosstabs that give a terrible top result

[KingSweden]

Is Emerson known for being too D friendly or just generally wrong?

They’ll show odd results for both Ds and Rs. Just not a great pollster. Kinda like Gravis

[Skye]

Is Emerson known for being too D friendly or just generally wrong?

just generally being wrong. They always get widly wrong results by either
A. Having 40% undecided
B. Having wildly crazy margins and crosstabs that give a terrible top result

Having a high number of undecideds is usually why people give them crap.

This poll is probably an outlier. But still, no reason to count Heller out.

[BudgieForce]

Is Emerson known for being too D friendly or just generally wrong?

For the longest time, Emerson was solely a land-line only pollster which meant their results skewed older and more republican.

However, they've recently sublimated their lack of cell phone polling with an opt-in online survey.

Which makes me even more cautious of their results since online surveys dont have a reputation for accuracy in the united states.

Edit: So yeah, its a data point. Just not one I'd put much stalk into.

[OneJ]

I knew what to expect basically, but +7 Heller is a very reaching result, even for Emerson.

[Skye]

Emerson, long time no see. Still making polls, huh. Interesting, interesting.

Call me a skeptic or a hack, but I have some doubts about this Emerson poll.

Edit: Just thought I would mention it, but Emerson is currently giving Dean Heller a better chance to win than Ted Cruz.

This poll last month had Sisolak up 10

That doesnt help Emerson's case...

Why would a pollster have such huge swings?

To answer your question, there is old article on 538 that basically explains it: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/heres-proof-some-pollsters-are-putting-a-thumb-on-the-scale/

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[Seriously?]

Emerson showed a house effect of D+1.2 which was below average and also had the second-best plus/minus rating (-1.0) per 538 from 2016 forward.

They aren't a terrible pollster TBH.

Obviously, MOE matters and this poll is not in line with the others at this point and it could also be an outlier, but it's not coming from a complete garbage pollster where it should be completely discounted.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/which-pollsters-to-trust-in-2018/

Is Emerson known for being too D friendly or just generally wrong?

They’ll show odd results for both Ds and Rs. Just not a great pollster. Kinda like Gravis

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Well, at least they finally got the undecideds down to a more reasonable level.

[RI]

NV is now Slight GOP on the Atlas map.

[2016]

Emerson showed a house effect of D+1.2 which was below average and also had the second-best plus/minus rating (-1.0) per 538 from 2016 forward.

They aren't a terrible pollster TBH.

Obviously, MOE matters and this poll is not in line with the others at this point and it could also be an outlier, but it's not coming from a complete garbage pollster where it should be completely discounted.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/which-pollsters-to-trust-in-2018/

Is Emerson known for being too D friendly or just generally wrong?

They’ll show odd results for both Ds and Rs. Just not a great pollster. Kinda like Gravis

Well, the last time Nevada ousted an Incumbent Senator Democrat or Republican was 1988 some 30 years ago when Republican Chic Hecht lost to Democrat Richard Bryan.

NV doesn't have a good History ousting Incumbent Senators.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_Senators_from_Nevada

This Race is turning for now BUT of course Zaybay told us half a year ago Rosen has this one in the bag, LOL.