NV Emerson: UTDH +7

[Zaybay]

Here are some of the other polls they got:

Governor: Laxalt (R) 46, Sisolak (D) 41

NV-1: Titus (D-inc) 50, Bentley (R) 20

NV-2: Amodei (R-inc), 23 Koble (D) 16

NV-3: Lee (D) 41, Tarkanian (R) 39

NV-4: Horsford (D) 36 Hardy (R) 34

[Arkansas Yankee]

Kavanaugh!  Kavanaugh!

Nevada is not as Democratic as you think.  Hillary only carried it by 2.42%.  Trump may have been the worst Republican for Nevada.  I have no doubt but Rubio was done really well there. Heller is in the Rubio mold.  Masto only carried it by 2.33%. 

In 2014 the Republicans swept the statewide offices and the legislature. 

In 2012 as Obama won by 6.6%, Heller was able to win by 1.16%

538 has Nevada pegged as 1.3% more Republican than the nation.  Even before this poll 538 gave Heller a 52% chance to carry the state.  It predicted the vote as Heller 48.8% Rosen 48.4%. 

The Democrats were living on the generic to carry Nevada this year.  Then you pulled the Kavanaugh sneak attack.  Boomerang!

538 has now  moved Heller to a 59.3 chance to win or 3 in 5 with a popular vote of 49.4% to 47.9%

[BudgieForce]

I think 2016 and Arkansas Yankee are getting way too ahead of themselves. Its very likely we'll get another poll with Rosen ahead so maybe chill out.

[2016]

Kavanaugh!  Kavanaugh!

Nevada is not as Democratic as you think.  Hillary only carried it by 2.42%.  Trump may have been the worst Republican for Nevada.  I have no doubt but Rubio was done really well there. Heller is in the Rubio mold.  Masto only carried it by 2.33%. 

In 2014 the Republicans swept the statewide offices and the legislature. 

In 2012 as Obama won by 6.6%, Heller was able to win by 1.16%

538 has Nevada pegged as 1.3% more Republican than the nation.  Even before this poll 538 gave Heller a 52% chance to carry the state.  It predicted the vote as Heller 48.8% Rosen 48.4%. 

The Democrats were living on the generic to carry Nevada this year.  Then you pulled the Kavanaugh sneak attack.  Boomerang!

538 has now  moved Heller to a 59.3 chance to win or 3 in 5 with a popular vote of 49.4% to 47.9%

This is precisely the reason why I thought Heller could win again and why I would give the Democrats a better chance winning in AZ than in NV. Incumbency matters. NV has an Incumbent running, AZ has not. Heller is battle-tested.

[2016]

I think 2016 and Arkansas Yankee are getting way too ahead of themselves. Its very likely we'll get another poll with Rosen ahead so maybe chill out.

Maybe but the Trendlines are favouring Heller a bit now. 3 Polls in the last week and all 3 have Heller up:
Marist + 2
Siena + 2
Emerson + 7

Now, I don't think Heller is up 7 but I do think he has a slight edge here now. 2-4 Points is my guess.

[Skye]

In 2014 the Republicans swept the statewide offices and the legislature.  

On the coattails of a super popular Republican governor without a real opponent.

In 2012 as Obama won by 6.6%, Heller was able to win by 1.16%

Yeah, that was because Shelley Berkley was involved in a scandal.

I'm certainly not on the "Heller's DOA" Atlas bandwagon, but let's be frank. Usually Dems are better positioned than Republicans in NV.

[BudgieForce]

Nothing about this polls subsets looks wrong(besides the Congressional district numbers). Honestly, it just looks like an outlier. They happen.

[Beet]

It looks like Heller is really breaking out now. At this point, I'd rather be Phil Bredesen than Jacky Rosen.

[2016]

In 2014 the Republicans swept the statewide offices and the legislature.  

On the coattails of a super popular Republican governor without a real opponent.

In 2012 as Obama won by 6.6%, Heller was able to win by 1.16%

Yeah, that was because Shelley Berkley was involved in a scandal.

I'm certainly not on the "Heller's DOA" Atlas bandwagon, but let's be frank. Usually Dems are better positioned than Republicans in NV.

If it were an Open Seat you would be right but it isn't. As I already mentioned it's very hard to knock of an Incumbent Senator, Democrat or Republican alike in NV. It hasn't happened it 30 years. And I think it's a mistake moving NV permanently into the D-Column.

[YE]

Kavanaugh!  Kavanaugh!

Nevada is not as Democratic as you think.  Hillary only carried it by 2.42%.  Trump may have been the worst Republican for Nevada.  I have no doubt but Rubio was done really well there. Heller is in the Rubio mold.  Masto only carried it by 2.33%. 

In 2014 the Republicans swept the statewide offices and the legislature. 

In 2012 as Obama won by 6.6%, Heller was able to win by 1.16%

538 has Nevada pegged as 1.3% more Republican than the nation.  Even before this poll 538 gave Heller a 52% chance to carry the state.  It predicted the vote as Heller 48.8% Rosen 48.4%. 

The Democrats were living on the generic to carry Nevada this year.  Then you pulled the Kavanaugh sneak attack.  Boomerang!

538 has now  moved Heller to a 59.3 chance to win or 3 in 5 with a popular vote of 49.4% to 47.9%

Lol at the stupid notion that Rubio would have carried the silver state. Yes, Trump was a bad fit for an economy largely based on tourism and in a state with lots of non-college educated voters (in fact Nevada was the least educated state to go for Clinton in 2016). You also conveniently left out key details like the Dems reversing 2014 gains in 2016 in the state and picking up 2 House seats.

I highly doubt Kavanaqugh is having any affected on the race given it's not deep or even medium red territory and you quite frankly have some nerve to call the credible sexual assault allegations a sneak attack.

The bottom line is that the GOP agenda is trying to screw people over threw trying to destroy Obamacare, raise taxes on the middle class, and deregulate Wall Street while Trump and his cronies continue their corrupt ways. The fundamentals (and I've seen even you recognize this in the past) were setup for a wave a long time ago with the GOP's toxic agenda and Trump's unpopularity, something Dean Heller has unquestionably not distanced himself from.

[BudgieForce]

It looks like Heller is really breaking out now. At this point, I'd rather be Phil Bredesen than Jacky Rosen.

Oh come on.

We've had two Heller +2(believable) and this(not believable).

We also have a history of Nevada under polling democrats unlike Tennessee which has a history of under polling republicans.

I'd much rather be Rosen right now.

[Lachi]

LOL @ THE 61% UNDECIDED IN NV-02!!!

That's gotta be a record of some sort

[DataGuy]

Hate to rock the boat, folks, but what if this whole "Unbeatable Titan Dean Heller" thing actually ends up being true? I'm not making an affirmative prediction that he will win, but now it's pretty obvious this is not in the bag for anyone, Jacky included.

Yes, I know, Nevada polls always underestimate Democrats and all that, but on average it's only been by 2 or 3 points, and in the 2016 Senate race Democratic overperformance was only +0.6. So at the very least I'd say we have a tied race here.

And say what you will about Emerson, but they are a B+ rated pollster and actually have a D+0.1 mean-reverted bias. I agree that we should be skeptical of their polls when they have something like 25% undecided, but in this poll the undecideds stand at a fairly normal 11%.

[BudgieForce]

Hate to rock the boat, folks, but what if this whole "Unbeatable Titan Dean Heller" thing actually ends up being true? I'm not making an affirmative prediction that he will win, but now it's pretty obvious this is not in the bag for anyone, Jacky included.

Yes, I know, Nevada polls always underestimate Democrats and all that, but on average it's only been by 2 or 3 points, and in the 2016 Senate race Democratic overperformance was only +0.6. So at the very least I'd say we have a tied race here.

And say what you will about Emerson, but they are a B+ rated pollster and actually have a D+0.1 mean-reverted bias. I agree that we should be skeptical of their polls when they have something like 25% undecided, but in this poll the undecideds stand at a fairly normal 11%.

538 increased their rating because they added online surveys to supplement for their lack of calling cell phones. Ive said multiple times how I think that was wrong on 538s part.

[mencken]

Even in the Nevada Triangle this is likelier than not a GOP lead.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Be skeptical of Emerson when it shows Democrats up, and be skeptical when it shows Republicans up.

really just throw all emerson polls in the trash

[Gass3268]

Do folks know if they poll in Spanish?

[ON Progressive]

Do folks know if they poll in Spanish?

It looks like they did not.

[Devils30]

Is there a Trump approval rating in this poll?

[DataGuy]

Hate to rock the boat, folks, but what if this whole "Unbeatable Titan Dean Heller" thing actually ends up being true? I'm not making an affirmative prediction that he will win, but now it's pretty obvious this is not in the bag for anyone, Jacky included.

Yes, I know, Nevada polls always underestimate Democrats and all that, but on average it's only been by 2 or 3 points, and in the 2016 Senate race Democratic overperformance was only +0.6. So at the very least I'd say we have a tied race here.

And say what you will about Emerson, but they are a B+ rated pollster and actually have a D+0.1 mean-reverted bias. I agree that we should be skeptical of their polls when they have something like 25% undecided, but in this poll the undecideds stand at a fairly normal 11%.

538 increased their rating because they added online surveys to supplement for their lack of calling cell phones. Ive said multiple times how I think that was wrong on 538s part.

Regardless, 538 doesn't have a bad track record predicting Nevada. Despite Trump slightly leading the polls there in 2016, they favored Clinton to win the state and got pretty close to the final margin. They were also correct on the Senate race, even as they missed some other races badly. So when they have Heller as a 60% favorite, as they do now, that should probably mean something.

[Gass3268]

Do folks know if they poll in Spanish?

It looks like they did not.

This I how the pollsters have been burned in the past here.

[Senator Incitatus]

Ignore the House polling; they're just cross-sections of the statewide poll with MoE ±7. Not even worth discussing.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

LOL @ THE 61% UNDECIDED IN NV-02!!!

That's gotta be a record of some sort

Or it's a massive write-in campaign for Dennis Hof.

[MillennialModerate]

Yeah, this is going Republican.

Which I’ve said since early September and was laughed at.

[CookieDamage]

Yeah, this is going Republican.

Which I’ve said since early September and was laughed at.

Let's hope your confidence based on crappy polls in a state difficult to poll pays off if Heller wins. If he doesn't you are going to look miiiighty stupid.