Other Canadian municipal elections, 2018 (NT, YT, BC, MB, PEI) (PEI on Nov 5)

[mileslunn]

https://twitter.com/j_mcelroy/status/1061417063749582849

As has been the case for the last decade, it seems the new divide is north/south while south parts of the city leaning rightwards and north parts leaning leftwards.  Used to be an East/West split but that seems to have largely disappeared.

[Hatman 🍁]

On the Olympics you have an odd coalition opposed.  You have the right who believe in less spending and oppose anything that might result in higher taxes thus why they oppose.  The left as they feel the cost should be better spent on social services not the games which they see favouring the well to do, so unlike the yes which are mostly near the centre, the opposition have little in common in terms of political views overall.

I used to be pro-Olympics but with the high cost somewhat skeptical now.  That being said somewhere has to hold it and due to high cost probably better to host it in cities that have already held it and thus have the facilities than ones who haven't thus huge costs of building the new facilities.  It does seem now the only places willing to host them are authoritarian regimes like Russia and China who don't have to worry about what voters think.

Will be interesting to see ward by ward breakdown.  My guess is the nouveau riche areas like around Calgary-Elbow will be the most in favour while the most opposed will be on the south end (most conservative part of the city) and central areas with high rates of renters (concerns about rent costs rising and fewer social services).

TBF the remaining potential host cities are Stockholm and Milan, so not exactly authoritarian regimes (despite the current Italian government). I can see Stockholm not wanting to host it though.

[mileslunn]

On the Olympics you have an odd coalition opposed.  You have the right who believe in less spending and oppose anything that might result in higher taxes thus why they oppose.  The left as they feel the cost should be better spent on social services not the games which they see favouring the well to do, so unlike the yes which are mostly near the centre, the opposition have little in common in terms of political views overall.

I used to be pro-Olympics but with the high cost somewhat skeptical now.  That being said somewhere has to hold it and due to high cost probably better to host it in cities that have already held it and thus have the facilities than ones who haven't thus huge costs of building the new facilities.  It does seem now the only places willing to host them are authoritarian regimes like Russia and China who don't have to worry about what voters think.

Will be interesting to see ward by ward breakdown.  My guess is the nouveau riche areas like around Calgary-Elbow will be the most in favour while the most opposed will be on the south end (most conservative part of the city) and central areas with high rates of renters (concerns about rent costs rising and fewer social services).

TBF the remaining potential host cities are Stockholm and Milan, so not exactly authoritarian regimes (despite the current Italian government). I can see Stockholm not wanting to host it though.

Italian government has already stated winter Olympics will not get one red cent while Stockholm municipal government has stated the same thus the problem.  I was more thinking of recent Olympics elsewhere such as Sochi and Beijing as both Russia and China are authoritarian regimes that don't have to worry about what the public thinks.

[Hatman 🍁]

https://twitter.com/colbycosh/status/1063168820267778048

Looks like you were right about Calgary-Elbow. Calgary West also looks to have a high yes vote. Wonder if proximity to the 1988 Olympic ski hill has anything to do with it? I think this area is also quite wealthy too.

Interestingly, the est end was the most against. That part of the city has been the most anti-Nenshi in his mayoral elections, even though it's not the most conservative part of the city.

[mileslunn]

https://twitter.com/colbycosh/status/1063168820267778048

Looks like you were right about Calgary-Elbow. Calgary West also looks to have a high yes vote. Wonder if proximity to the 1988 Olympic ski hill has anything to do with it? I think this area is also quite wealthy too.

Interestingly, the est end was the most against. That part of the city has been the most anti-Nenshi in his mayoral elections, even though it's not the most conservative part of the city.

I thought south end was most anti-Nenshi and that is also the most conservative part of the city.  East end I believe is the most ethnically diverse part of the city.  Sort of similar to Brampton and Surrey if comparing to GTA and GVRD.  Northwest is more like Markham and Richmond.

[Hatman 🍁]

Yes, you are right. I was still thinking of the 2010 mayoral election, where Nenshi didn't do well in the east end:

[Hatman 🍁]

Results of the Toronto mayoral election by polling division



Source: https://seanmarshall.ca/2018/11/07/mapping-the-results-of-the-2018-election-part-i/

Some great maps and analysis on that blog.

Despite winning a large chunk of the west end, Keesmaat did not win any wards. Though, she would have won three of the old wards. Another piece of evidence that the boundaries are gerrymandered (unintentionally) against progressives.

[mileslunn]

Results of the Toronto mayoral election by polling division



Source: https://seanmarshall.ca/2018/11/07/mapping-the-results-of-the-2018-election-part-i/

Some great maps and analysis on that blog.

Despite winning a large chunk of the west end, Keesmaat did not win any wards. Though, she would have won three of the old wards. Another piece of evidence that the boundaries are gerrymandered (unintentionally) against progressives.

It looks like Keesmaat's support was in areas near a university.  I suspect the one poll she won in the North is where York University is.  Interesting that she did well in University-Rosedale and Davenport, but Toronto-Danforth which is usually the most NDP riding in Toronto went pretty much all for Tory although not by quite as big a blowouts as elsewhere in the city.

[Hatman 🍁]

Results of the Toronto mayoral election by polling division



Source: https://seanmarshall.ca/2018/11/07/mapping-the-results-of-the-2018-election-part-i/

Some great maps and analysis on that blog.

Despite winning a large chunk of the west end, Keesmaat did not win any wards. Though, she would have won three of the old wards. Another piece of evidence that the boundaries are gerrymandered (unintentionally) against progressives.

  I suspect the one poll she won in the North is where York University is. 

yes

[adma]

Despite winning a large chunk of the west end, Keesmaat did not win any wards. Though, she would have won three of the old wards. Another piece of evidence that the boundaries are gerrymandered (unintentionally) against progressives.

Though that's of less import at council level, since progressives won all those wards anyway (except for the moderate Ana Bailao in Davenport; but that's because it was a near-acclamation)

[adma]

It looks like Keesmaat's support was in areas near a university.  I suspect the one poll she won in the North is where York University is.  Interesting that she did well in University-Rosedale and Davenport, but Toronto-Danforth which is usually the most NDP riding in Toronto went pretty much all for Tory although not by quite as big a blowouts as elsewhere in the city.

True, that's York in the north.  However, "near a university" is stretching it in the south, as U of T is actually at the right edge of that sea of purple.  It's more of a generic "urban progressive" thing than something specifically university-ish--or, it'd be like attributing the legendary leftism of NYC's Upper West Side to the presence of Columbia U, which actually happens to be just to the north rather than in the middle of it all.

[Hatman 🍁]

Despite winning a large chunk of the west end, Keesmaat did not win any wards. Though, she would have won three of the old wards. Another piece of evidence that the boundaries are gerrymandered (unintentionally) against progressives.

Though that's of less import at council level, since progressives won all those wards anyway (except for the moderate Ana Bailao in Davenport; but that's because it was a near-acclamation)

Right, but it's important on the federal and provincial levels, as it would be nice if the NDP actually had a safe-ish seat in Toronto, which they do not.

[adma]

Despite winning a large chunk of the west end, Keesmaat did not win any wards. Though, she would have won three of the old wards. Another piece of evidence that the boundaries are gerrymandered (unintentionally) against progressives.

Though that's of less import at council level, since progressives won all those wards anyway (except for the moderate Ana Bailao in Davenport; but that's because it was a near-acclamation)

Right, but it's important on the federal and provincial levels, as it would be nice if the NDP actually had a safe-ish seat in Toronto, which they do not.

But when we're talking about the specifics of Ford's ward reduction/redistribution, it's redundant given the favourable dynamics already in place.

Remember, too,  the counter-argument that the last redistribution was meant to create more NDP-*viable* seats--though as with "rurban" Saskatchewan in the 90s, we can see how logic can go awry...

[Hatman 🍁]

Despite winning a large chunk of the west end, Keesmaat did not win any wards. Though, she would have won three of the old wards. Another piece of evidence that the boundaries are gerrymandered (unintentionally) against progressives.

Though that's of less import at council level, since progressives won all those wards anyway (except for the moderate Ana Bailao in Davenport; but that's because it was a near-acclamation)

Right, but it's important on the federal and provincial levels, as it would be nice if the NDP actually had a safe-ish seat in Toronto, which they do not.

But when we're talking about the specifics of Ford's ward reduction/redistribution, it's redundant given the favourable dynamics already in place.

Remember, too,  the counter-argument that the last redistribution was meant to create more NDP-*viable* seats--though as with "rurban" Saskatchewan in the 90s, we can see how logic can go awry...

Yes, I remember. Back when the NDP thought just because they were the official opposition, they wouldn't have to worry about getting wiped out of Toronto again. Of course, in the very least they should've thought about their provincial counterparts.