Other Canadian municipal elections, 2018 (NT, YT, BC, MB, PEI) (PEI on Nov 5)
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  Other Canadian municipal elections, 2018 (NT, YT, BC, MB, PEI) (PEI on Nov 5)
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Author Topic: Other Canadian municipal elections, 2018 (NT, YT, BC, MB, PEI) (PEI on Nov 5)  (Read 4671 times)
Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« on: October 15, 2018, 10:42:15 AM »
« edited: November 05, 2018, 11:02:40 AM by Hatman 🍁 »

There are municipal elections in provinces not named Ontario this fall too. Here are the dates:

October 15: Northwest Territories
October 18: Yukon
October 20: British Columbia (surprised we don't have a thread on this, Vancouver will be an interesting race)
October 22: Ontario (see other thread)
October 24: Manitoba
November 5: Prince Edward Island
Bonus - November 13: Calgary Olympic plebiscite

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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #1 on: October 15, 2018, 10:57:40 AM »

Today is election day in six communities in the Northwest Territories, Yellowknife (the capital), Fort Simpson, Fort Smith, Hay River, Inuvik and Norman Wells. Council terms are three years. Other communities in the territory will have elections on December 10.

Let's focus on Yellowknife (population 20K), though. Mayor Mark Heyck (a known NDP supporter) is retiring.  There are four candidates running to replace him. Councillors Rebecca Alty and Adrian Bell, and two "anti-establishment" candidates: libertarian Jerald Sibbeston and Bob Stewart, a bar owner.

Additionally, there is are the council's 8 seats up for grabs. Each seat is at-large, so the top eight candidates get elected. There is also a plebsicte to lengthen council terms to four years.
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lilTommy
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« Reply #2 on: October 15, 2018, 10:57:46 AM »

There been mayoral polling in Vancouver, the most recent from 10/7:

https://researchco.ca/2018/10/09/vancouver-october08/

Kennedy Stewart (Independent, endorsed by OneCity) - 34%
Ken Sim (Non-Partisan Association (NPA) - 20%
Shauna Sylvester i(Independent) - 16%
Hector Bremner (Yes Vancouver) 10%,
David Chen (ProVancouver) - 7%
Wai Young (Coalition Vancouver)- 7%
Fred Harding (Vancouver First) -4%
Undecided - 26%

Can't seem to find any council level polling, but don't know how you would?
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mileslunn
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« Reply #3 on: October 15, 2018, 11:10:35 AM »

There been mayoral polling in Vancouver, the most recent from 10/7:

https://researchco.ca/2018/10/09/vancouver-october08/

Kennedy Stewart (Independent, endorsed by OneCity) - 34%
Ken Sim (Non-Partisan Association (NPA) - 20%
Shauna Sylvester i(Independent) - 16%
Hector Bremner (Yes Vancouver) 10%,
David Chen (ProVancouver) - 7%
Wai Young (Coalition Vancouver)- 7%
Fred Harding (Vancouver First) -4%
Undecided - 26%

Can't seem to find any council level polling, but don't know how you would?

Vancouver is a mess seems a lot more parties than in the past.  Interestingly enough splits on the right might help Kennedy Stewart as just glancing at that it appears total centre-right vote is 39% (NPA + Yes Vancouver + Coalition Vancouver + Vancouver First) although one cannot assume they would allow have each other as second choices.  Never mind Shauna Sylvester and ProVancouver are centre-left.  That being said unlike past elections where you usually only had two or three major candidates, this is probably where ranked ballots would help.  I wonder how many will actually look into each candidate or will we get a lot of donkey votes on city council, school board, and park board.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #4 on: October 15, 2018, 11:40:20 AM »

Vancouver council is going to be a clusterf**k. Mainstreet attempted to poll it, but kind of botched it (had a wrong party in there or something). I agree with Tommy, how would you even poll the council race using an IVR poll? You could do it online of course.
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lilTommy
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« Reply #5 on: October 15, 2018, 11:53:11 AM »

Vancouver council is going to be a clusterf**k. Mainstreet attempted to poll it, but kind of botched it (had a wrong party in there or something). I agree with Tommy, how would you even poll the council race using an IVR poll? You could do it online of course.

It's going to be those who have "cult" or personal following's that win I think. OneCity is only running two for council, COPE is running i think 2 or 3, with Vision collapse might be smarter to go small, easier to promote two candidates then 10. I don't think any slate at this point will have more then 3 or 4 Councillors elected?
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #6 on: October 15, 2018, 12:36:18 PM »

The NPA is running the most candidates (Cool; I wonder if conservative voters unite behind them, they will all (or most) get elected, even if a majority of voters vote for progressive candidates.
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lilTommy
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« Reply #7 on: October 15, 2018, 12:48:59 PM »

It's going to interesting, looks relatively even split based on number of parties:

Right(ish) - NPA + Yes Vancouver + Coalition Vancouver + Vancouver First
Left(ish) - Vision Vancouver + OneCity + COPE + Green + ProVancouver

Independents throws this off for me since I don't have a clue where most of them stand.
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lilTommy
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« Reply #8 on: October 15, 2018, 03:41:07 PM »

They are "trying" to Poll Council I think:
https://researchco.ca/2018/10/11/vancouver-council-2/?fbclid=IwAR10C-8CvP0vcLyzq5bIw2qBv3ulHfFEJGGcli9cDtvY8_ORNrvRuo6k_Bs

"51% (+5 since September) say they will “definitely” or “probably” consider supporting Green Party

(50%, +12) say they will “definitely” or “probably” consider voting for any of the 27 independent candidates.

35% of Vancouverites (+5) say they would “definitely” or “probably” consider voting for the Non-Partisan Association (NPA),

34% (+2) feel the same way about contenders from the Coalition of Progressive Electors (COPE).

Vision Vancouver (27%, -3),
Yes Vancouver (23%, -1), P
roVancouver (22%, +13),
Coalition Vancouver (22%, +9),
One City (21%, +2) and
Vancouver First (16%, +4)."

A. Mess!
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trebor204
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« Reply #9 on: October 15, 2018, 08:11:32 PM »

The Winnipeg Mayoral Candidates
https://twitter.com/brent_neill/status/1050589391679307776?s=21
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #10 on: October 16, 2018, 08:30:20 AM »

Yellowknife results:
Rebecca Alty: 55.0%
Adrian Bell: 41.4%
Bob Stewart: 1.9%
Jerald Sibbeston: 1.7%

Alty becomes Yellowknife's second female mayor.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #11 on: October 16, 2018, 10:39:42 AM »

They are "trying" to Poll Council I think:
https://researchco.ca/2018/10/11/vancouver-council-2/?fbclid=IwAR10C-8CvP0vcLyzq5bIw2qBv3ulHfFEJGGcli9cDtvY8_ORNrvRuo6k_Bs

"51% (+5 since September) say they will “definitely” or “probably” consider supporting Green Party

(50%, +12) say they will “definitely” or “probably” consider voting for any of the 27 independent candidates.

35% of Vancouverites (+5) say they would “definitely” or “probably” consider voting for the Non-Partisan Association (NPA),

34% (+2) feel the same way about contenders from the Coalition of Progressive Electors (COPE).

Vision Vancouver (27%, -3),
Yes Vancouver (23%, -1), P
roVancouver (22%, +13),
Coalition Vancouver (22%, +9),
One City (21%, +2) and
Vancouver First (16%, +4)."

A. Mess!

Just as an aside, if we want to cheer on independent progressive candidates, two to watch are overdose prevention advocate Sarah Blyth and Adrian Cook of "5 kids 1 condo" fame (he was the guy that was charged because his kids rode the city bus to school by THEMSELVES (oh, the horror! Roll Eyes  ))
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Njall
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« Reply #12 on: October 16, 2018, 10:41:02 AM »

They are "trying" to Poll Council I think:
https://researchco.ca/2018/10/11/vancouver-council-2/?fbclid=IwAR10C-8CvP0vcLyzq5bIw2qBv3ulHfFEJGGcli9cDtvY8_ORNrvRuo6k_Bs

"51% (+5 since September) say they will “definitely” or “probably” consider supporting Green Party

(50%, +12) say they will “definitely” or “probably” consider voting for any of the 27 independent candidates.

35% of Vancouverites (+5) say they would “definitely” or “probably” consider voting for the Non-Partisan Association (NPA),

34% (+2) feel the same way about contenders from the Coalition of Progressive Electors (COPE).

Vision Vancouver (27%, -3),
Yes Vancouver (23%, -1), P
roVancouver (22%, +13),
Coalition Vancouver (22%, +9),
One City (21%, +2) and
Vancouver First (16%, +4)."

A. Mess!

Researchco has new Council numbers today: https://researchco.ca/2018/10/16/vanelxn2018/

Independents: 53% (+3)
Greens: 47% (-4)
NPA: 35% (n/c)
COPE: 34% (n/c)
Vision: 29% (+2)
OneCity: 27% (+6)
Yes Vancouver: 18% (-5)
Vancouver 1st: 18% (+2)
Coalition Vancouver: 18% (-4)
ProVancouver: 16% (-6)


They also released new Mayoral numbers, below with changes from early October:
Kennedy Stewart (Ind): 36% (+2)
Ken Sim (NPA): 23% (+3)
Shauna Sylvester (Ind): 19% (+3)
Hector Bremner (Yes Vancouver): 6% (-4)
Wai Young (Coalition Vancouver): 6% (-1)
Fred Harding (Vancouver 1st): 2% (-2)
David Chen (ProVancouver): 2% (-5)
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #13 on: October 18, 2018, 09:39:39 AM »

Today is election day in the Yukon. Council elections will be held in the capital of Whitehorse as well as the communities of Carmacks, Teslin, Watson Lake, Faro and Haines Junction. Dawson City and Mayo saw their entire councils acclaimed.

In Whitehorse, mayor Dan Curtis, a Liberal, will be running for re-election. He is being challenged by Wilf Carter (not the dead country musician), who ran against Curtis in 2015, bus driver Kelly Suits, by-law officer Colin LaForme, and Rick Karp, who is the president of the Whitehorse Chamber of Commerce (and ran in 2012, losing to Curtis).

There are six seats on council, all are elected at-large.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #14 on: October 18, 2018, 05:32:29 PM »

Should QC be added? The Montreal by-elections will be held on December 16th. To replace:

Chantal Rouleau, mayor of the Rivière-des-Prairies--Pointe-aux-Trembles borough (Ensemble Montréal, formely Équipe Denis Coderre, formely Vision Montréal), new CAQ MNA for Pointe-aux-Trembles.

Frantz Benjamin, city councillor for St-Michel ward (Ensemble Montréal, formely Équipe Denis Coderre, formely Independant, formely Union Montréal), now Liberal MNA for Viau.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #15 on: October 18, 2018, 10:02:23 PM »

I guess those belong in the by-elections thread.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #16 on: October 19, 2018, 09:39:17 AM »

Whitehorse mayoral results:

Dan Curtis, incumbent: 44%
Rick Karp: 29%
Colin Lavorme: 23%
Wilf Carter: 2%
Kelly Suits: 2%

Also of note, there was a tie in the mayoral election in Faro (population 348), with both candidates getting 86 votes. The challenger, Leonard Faber's name was pulled out of a hat, so he was elected over the incumbent mayor, Jack Bowers.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #17 on: October 20, 2018, 11:23:54 PM »

No results in Vancouver yet, but looks like Conservative Doug McCallum is well ahead in Surrey, and NDPer Derek Corrigan is losing his bid for re-election in Burnaby.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #18 on: October 20, 2018, 11:32:14 PM »

McCallum wins in Surrey.

Finally the first polls in Vancouver. Stewart leads Ken Sim 7720-7660.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #19 on: October 20, 2018, 11:44:25 PM »

Firefighter/BC Liberal Mike Hurley wins in Burnaby, ending 15 years Corrigan rule. Corrigan's party looks like will hold on to a majority on council, though.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #20 on: October 20, 2018, 11:51:45 PM »

Real danger of vote splitting on the left in Vancouver. 47/133 polls:

Stewart 12k
Sim 11k
Sylvester 9k
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trebor204
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« Reply #21 on: October 21, 2018, 12:05:42 AM »

Very close in Vancouver with (65/133) Sim has a Slim 139 vote lead.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #22 on: October 21, 2018, 12:14:15 AM »

The mayoral seat might be the tipping point as the NPA is leading with 6 seats including them mayor's.

Meanwhile Lisa Helps is re-elected in Victoria. Smiley
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #23 on: October 21, 2018, 12:40:40 AM »

Stewart now ahead by 1000 votes, 87/133 polls
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #24 on: October 21, 2018, 12:57:59 AM »

Lead is up to 2K with 99 polls in.

The 10th seat on council keeps flipping between the Greens and NPA. They're now tied at 4.
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