NJ Stockton: Hugin +10 in NJ-3

[Senator Incitatus]

Hugin 49
Menendez 39
Sabrin (L) 4

This poll also finds MacArthur +2.

The same pollster found Hugin +10 in NJ-2 (with Jeff Van Drew +22) and Menendez +2 statewide earlier this month. They have been the most consistently pro-Hugin independent pollster.

https://stockton.edu/hughes-center/polling/documents/2018-1015-cd3-2018-wfs.pdf

In 2012, the district leaned Romney +13.19 and Kyrillos +14.35.
In 2013, the district leaned Christie +15.09 and Lonegan +17.38.
In 2014, the district leaned Bell +15.57.
In 2016, the district leaned Trump +20.29.

All numbers are relative to the statewide result.

As with the NJ-2 poll, how you read this depends on how you read the map. If Hugin is a return to pre-Obama Whitman-Kean Republicans and is competitive in North Jersey, he is competitive. If he more closely parallels Trump and Lonegan popuservatives who are losing ground in Morris/Somerset, he's down by high single digits. He might even be in a rare third camp of Christie-style candidates who straddle that line.

Basically, I wish we had a similar poll of NJ-7 or NJ-11 to really understand what Menendez's coalition looks like. This doesn't tell us much about the race we didn't know, but it's another data point.

[Antonio the Sixth]

big if true

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Well Clinton lost it by 6 so this would be consistent with Menendez winning in the ballpark of 10 points statewide, so this looks right.

[Arkansas Yankee]

Could it be that as we get closer to the election that Menendez becomes a serious drag on Democrats in Republican Districts that the Democrats are looking to flip?  Could be that Democrats have been so confident that they have set stages where they are shooting themselves.  Some Anti Trump Republicans may find it hard to take both Menendez and the sneak attack on Kavanaugh. So they will vote for Hudgins and the GOP congressional candidate.  Can dream can’t I.

They can justify their vote as not pro Trump, but anti New Jersey Democrat machine. 

[Senator Incitatus]

Could it be that as we get closer to the election that Menendez becomes a serious drag on Democrats in Republican Districts that the Democrats are looking to flip?  Could be that Democrats have been so confident that they have set stages where they are shooting themselves.  Some Anti Trump Republicans may find it hard to take both Menendez and the sneak attack on Kavanaugh. So they will vote for Hudgins and the GOP congressional candidate.  Can dream can’t I.

They can justify their vote as not pro Trump, but anti New Jersey Democrat machine.  

Doesn't look like it. Menendez doesn't seem to be having much down ballot effect, unless you believe Van Drew should be up 40 and the close races should be Safe D. I would feel more certain of that if we had any polling on Menendez is NJ07 or NJ11.

[Skye]

Almost gave me a heart attack, thought it was statewide.

[Senator Incitatus]

Almost gave me a heart attack, thought it was statewide.

I debated formatting the title otherwise but this was consistent with the other poll posted and most similar polls.

We should maybe switch to something like State/District: Result [Pollster]. Doesn't really seem necessary to highlight the pollster first

[Ebsy]

Do we really need whole threads for crosstabs within polls of other races? Can't these just be discussed in the megathreads.

[Skye]

Do we really need whole threads for crosstabs within polls of other races? Can't these just be discussed in the megathreads.

I agree with this.

[psychprofessor]

This isn't a good result for Hugin and with this result only showing MacArthur up 2 (and only at 44%) - points to a comfortable Menendez win and MacArthur in deep trouble.

[adrac]

Almost gave me a heart attack, thought it was statewide.

Seriously, the short version of the title gives me anxiety every time I look at it.

[Senator Incitatus]

Hopefully this reply (and accompanying title change) at least fixes the truncated preview. Sorry, folks. Won't do that again.