Competitive House Race Predictions - Alabama to Arkansas

[ElectionsGuy]

Another series to record aggregate predictions for the forum. I was convinced to do this not only because a few others opted not to but because I feel the Senate races get too much attention compared to the house races when the house will ultimately be the bigger story (at least in my opinion). I rounded up all the non-safe races from Cook and Sabato combined and that's what I'll use. It total 115 races. I'm going to do this on a state by state basis, with each thread every day averaging 6-7 races, but this could vary, as the next thread (all California races) has 11, some might only have 4-5 (like this one).

AK-AL: Young (R), although this could go either way.
AZ-01: O'Halleran (D)
AZ-02: Kirkpatrick (D+1)
AZ-06: Schweikert (R)
AR-02: Hill (R)

Predictions



Safe D: 182
Safe R: 138

Competitive D:
Competitive R:

Democrats: 182
Republicans: 138

[Politician]

AK-AL: Young +3.
AZ-01: O'Holleran +8.
AZ-02: Kirkpatrick +10.
AZ-06: Schweikert +9.
AR-02: Hill +4.

[Xing]

AK-AL: Likely R, but probably closer to Lean than Safe.
AZ-01: Safe D
AZ-02: Safe D (D+1)
AZ-06: Likely R
AR-02: Lean R

[ON Progressive]

AK-AL: Likely R, but probably closer to Lean than Safe.
AZ-01: Safe D
AZ-02: Safe D (D+1)
AZ-06: Likely R
AR-02: Lean R

Exactly this. I'd also put AZ-08 at Likely R, although that wasn't on the list.

[😥]

AK-AL: Lean R
AZ-01: Safe D
AZ-02: Likely D
AZ-06: Likely R
AR-02: Likely R

Pickups:
DEM:AZ-02
REP: none

D+1

[Del Tachi]

Young
O'Halleran
Kirkpatrick
Schweikert
Hill

[Orser67]

AK-AL: Likely R
AZ-01: Safe D
AZ-02: Likely D
AZ-06: Likely R
AZ-08: Likely R
AR-02: Lean R

I wish I could call AL-03 Likely Republican, but...yeah, it's safe.