TN-Cygnal (R): Bredesen +14 ... among 18-35 year old Tennessee voters

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I expect a larger than usual age gap in this race (for TN, which has smaller than average age gaps), but it's tough to tell from a one-demographic poll like that.  I expect that the age gap in TN-SEN will be significantly greater than that in TN-GOV.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

According to the FOX Voter Analysis ("Enhanced Exit Poll"):

18-34:
Senate- Bredesen +4
Governor- Dean +1

Now, the traditional exit poll shows a different story (Bredesen +39, Dean +16) and a larger gap between the two, and the truth may lie somewhere in the middle of the two characterizations.

Among 18-44 (race/gender groups only broken down this way, and FOX showed very little difference between 18-29 and 30-44 in the Senate- albeit some in the gubernatorial race-, so this may be reasonable):

Whites:
Governor- Lee +24
Senator- Blackburn +3

Non-Whites:
Governor- Dean +70
Senator- Bredesen +73 (Hispanics were only Bredesen +13, but there aren't very many in TN, so this mostly reflects the black vote)



Men:
Governor- Lee +10
Senator- Blackburn +3

Women:
Governor- Tie
Senator- Bredesen +10


So my prediction of Lee far outperforming Blackburn with young voters is kind of true, but not to the degree I expected in this FOX poll (and Blackburn held up somewhat better than I worried, especially due to young populations in trendier areas of Nashville that have little in common with most of Tennessee).