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| | |-+  2018 Gubernatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
| | | |-+  CA-SurveyUSA: Cox (R) almost winning (down 17 points)
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Author Topic: CA-SurveyUSA: Cox (R) almost winning (down 17 points)  (Read 782 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: October 16, 2018, 01:59:15 pm »

He's down only 52-35 ...

https://abc7.com/politics/newsom-leads-cox-in-polls;-prop-6-likely-to-pass-surveyusa-finds/4496743/
« Last Edit: October 16, 2018, 03:48:04 pm by Brittain33 »Logged
DINGO Joe
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« Reply #1 on: October 16, 2018, 02:00:46 pm »

He should be able to manage a three way tie for third.
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A Dingo in name only
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« Reply #2 on: October 16, 2018, 02:01:35 pm »

Why has this race been polled more than the OR one
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« Reply #3 on: October 16, 2018, 02:02:15 pm »

Finally a quality poll of CA. Do you have the full data for viewing? I want to see if they polled Poizner v Lara.
« Last Edit: October 16, 2018, 02:05:57 pm by Oryxslayer »Logged

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« Reply #4 on: October 16, 2018, 02:05:45 pm »

But some junk polls nobody ever's heard of told me this was a close race!
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« Reply #5 on: October 16, 2018, 02:09:09 pm »

While this is still a safe race for the Democrats, I start to believe Newsom will not outperform Brown 2014. I could see this ending up 57-43%.
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« Reply #6 on: October 16, 2018, 02:10:12 pm »

I actually for a second thought this was "Cox ahead" and laughed to myself.
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« Reply #7 on: October 16, 2018, 02:57:38 pm »

lol tender, nice trolling

This is a bit more believable, but I still think he breaks 60%.
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« Reply #8 on: October 16, 2018, 03:02:10 pm »

Why has this race been polled more than the OR one

Being a big state, California has its in-state pollsters that regularly poll the state, close race or not. Oregon doesn't.

Plus, ABC7 paid SurveyUSA to poll California. Perhaps the Portland, Eugene and Bend TV stations don't want to spend the money to poll.
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Technocracy Timmy
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« Reply #9 on: October 16, 2018, 03:02:25 pm »

Junk poll!

This is a tilt D race, closer to Lean than tossup.
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Xing
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« Reply #10 on: October 16, 2018, 03:13:52 pm »

But I thought OR and CA were going to go Republican along with NV, causing the Republican West realignment!!!!
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« Reply #11 on: October 16, 2018, 03:55:00 pm »

If Cox gets over 40% in a Trump midterm that's a decent accomplishment.
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« Reply #12 on: October 16, 2018, 05:03:49 pm »

I thought there were rules about clickbait titles...
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« Reply #13 on: October 16, 2018, 06:07:09 pm »

"Progressive" California is voting for a DLC member for governor, someone who voted for the Bush tax cuts for senator, and a gas tax repeal funded by the national Republican leadership.
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« Reply #14 on: October 17, 2018, 02:22:15 am »

Here's the full poll with crosstabs for everything. Unfortunately they did not poll the Insurance Commissioner's race. http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=85614f00-b105-4f49-a6e5-630e246d8d52
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« Reply #15 on: October 17, 2018, 02:28:23 am »

Prop 6 polling has been erratic, especially from SurveyUSA. I'm convinced it's entirely to do with how they ask the question:

"Proposition 6, a constitutional amendment which would repeal gasoline and diesel taxes, and vehicle fees, that were enacted in 2017 and would require any future fuel taxes be approved by voters. A YES vote on Prop 6 would repeal fuel tax increases that were enacted in 2017, including the Road Repaid and Accountability Act of 2017. A NO vote on Prop 6 would keep the fuel taxes imposed in 2017 by the California legislature in place, and would allow the legislature to impose whatever fees and taxes it approved in the future, provided 2/3 of the CA House and 2/3 of the CA Senate approved. On Proposition 6, how do you vote?"


Yet, in polls that use the official ballot language about "certain road repair and transportation funding", Prop 6 support collapses.
« Last Edit: October 17, 2018, 02:37:00 am by Interlocutor »Logged
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