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Author Topic: FL-St. Pete's: Gillum +1  (Read 728 times)
RogueBeaver
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« on: October 17, 2018, 06:06:03 am »

47/46. Previous poll was a tie at 47.
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Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #1 on: October 17, 2018, 06:14:51 am »

47/46. Previous poll was a tie at 47.

Looks like the smear campaign didn't work against him as well as hoped.
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The Inevitable Kevin Stitt
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« Reply #2 on: October 17, 2018, 06:58:29 am »

47/46. Previous poll was a tie at 47.

Looks like the smear campaign didn't work against him as well as hoped.

St. Pete is a joke all around. They had Romney +8 and Crist +7 in October of those years
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Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #3 on: October 17, 2018, 07:06:20 am »

47/46. Previous poll was a tie at 47.

Looks like the smear campaign didn't work against him as well as hoped.

St. Pete is a joke all around. They had Romney +8 and Crist +7 in October of those years

I don't even think RCP has them around.
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Joni Ernst 20∞
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« Reply #4 on: October 17, 2018, 08:27:20 am »

Gillum doing three points better than Nelson is definitely believable.
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« Reply #5 on: October 17, 2018, 10:59:20 am »

Not great, but Gillum is still favored, albeit narrowly.
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auburntiger
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« Reply #6 on: October 17, 2018, 11:01:25 am »

Both senate and governor races will go down to the wire per usual in this state.
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« Reply #7 on: October 17, 2018, 11:22:07 am »

De Santis still hasnít led since the primary.
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« Reply #8 on: October 17, 2018, 11:24:30 am »

Both senate and governor races will go down to the wire per usual in this state.

Think there could be a recount?
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auburntiger
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« Reply #9 on: October 17, 2018, 12:01:46 pm »

Wouldnít put it out of the realm of possibilities. It has happened before!
+1 gillum and +2 Scott are both believable but we are still well within the MOE. I said on another thread this race will get much closer than Gillum +9. Both parties are guaranteed a 47% floor. Early voting in Orange County starts Monday
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« Reply #10 on: October 17, 2018, 07:14:16 pm »

Both senate and governor races will go down to the wire per usual in this state.

And I've been scorned so much by it. I really hope, that even if the margins are razor thin, for  Gillum/Nelson victories. It would improve my opinion of the state enough to make me want to apologize for all the s*** I've given it on this forum.
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auburntiger
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« Reply #11 on: October 17, 2018, 09:47:48 pm »

Both senate and governor races will go down to the wire per usual in this state.

And I've been scorned so much by it. I really hope, that even if the margins are razor thin, for  Gillum/Nelson victories. It would improve my opinion of the state enough to make me want to apologize for all the s*** I've given it on this forum.

Both races are going to be fascinating to watch. While turnout will be the ultimate factor, I have spoken with quite a few people who are ticket splitting for DeSantis/Nelson. These are moderate  voters for Gwen Graham in the primary who think Gillum is a bridge too far ideologically, but believe Scott is a terrible person altogether (red tide is one factor). Itíll be interesting to see if turnout exceeds 2016 - I think it actually might.  There are so many cross-currents at play here affecting both races.
1) two centrists running for senate (by Florida standards)
2) two ideologues for governor (by Florida standards)
3) trumpís approval is net +2 (at least thatís the last one I saw)
4) red tide - Everglades Trust endorses DeSantis - does this help DeSantis?
5) Hurricane Michael- does the panhandle turnout drop effectively helping Gillum?
6) Polling- Gillum never led in any primary polling; DeSantis has yet to lead in GE polling- can we trust the polls are correct now?
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« Reply #12 on: October 17, 2018, 10:11:37 pm »

Both senate and governor races will go down to the wire per usual in this state.

And I've been scorned so much by it. I really hope, that even if the margins are razor thin, for  Gillum/Nelson victories. It would improve my opinion of the state enough to make me want to apologize for all the s*** I've given it on this forum.

Both races are going to be fascinating to watch. While turnout will be the ultimate factor, I have spoken with quite a few people who are ticket splitting for DeSantis/Nelson. These are moderate  voters for Gwen Graham in the primary who think Gillum is a bridge too far ideologically, but believe Scott is a terrible person altogether (red tide is one factor). Itíll be interesting to see if turnout exceeds 2016 - I think it actually might.  There are so many cross-currents at play here affecting both races.
1) two centrists running for senate (by Florida standards)
2) two ideologues for governor (by Florida standards)
3) trumpís approval is net +2 (at least thatís the last one I saw)
4) red tide - Everglades Trust endorses DeSantis - does this help DeSantis?
5) Hurricane Michael- does the panhandle turnout drop effectively helping Gillum?
6) Polling- Gillum never led in any primary polling; DeSantis has yet to lead in GE polling- can we trust the polls are correct now?


So they think Gillum is too liberal so they're voting for...a Trump clone? Jesus Christ, moderates are useless sometimes.
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TarHeelDem
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« Reply #13 on: October 18, 2018, 11:43:59 pm »

47/46. Previous poll was a tie at 47.

Looks like the smear campaign didn't work against him as well as hoped.

St. Pete is a joke all around. They had Romney +8 and Crist +7 in October of those years
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"However difficult the moment, however frustrating the hour, it will not be long, because 'truth crushed to earth will rise again.'

How long? Not long, because 'no lie can live forever.'

How long? Not long, because 'you shall reap what you sow.' [...]

How long? Not long, because the arc of the moral universe is long, but it bends toward justice." -Dr. Martin Luther King
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