FL-St. Pete's: Scott +2

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

I still think Nelson and DeSantis will win, regardless of what the polls say. The idea of a Scott/Gillum victory just doesn't make sense to me.

[Woody]

If it wasn't for Matthew, McCrory would have lost in a landslide. Matthew is the reason why McCrory still had a fighting chance against Cooper. If I had to bet my life on who would win, it would be Scott. Mark my words.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I still think Nelson and DeSantis will win, regardless of what the polls say. The idea of a Scott/Gillum victory just doesn't make sense to me.

NV and FL PolLs are up in the air right now and I think the polls showing Laxalt winning and Gillum winning are too optimistic

[UWS]

Zaybay always discredits the Pollster because he doesn't like the Numbers. This isn't just an Anti-Republican Year, it is a anti-Incumbent Year for people in Washington and Nelson has been in D. C. for 18 years and has done nothing good for Florida.

Its literally one Scott +2 poll. If Nelson were leading by 2 in this poll, I wouldnt jump and declare him the victor, especially if DeSantis were leading in the governor portion.

You did say the race was Lean D in a thread about a poll that had Scott winning though.

Well yeah, that was based off the clear momentum Nelson was showing in multiple pollsters. The hurricane wasnt in my thinking at the time, as it could have a clear impact moving it to tossup. I would like more polls before justifying a trend.

Pat McCrory helped with hurricane assistance and he still lost. The idea it will Scott over the edge is ludicrous.

Of course, the hurricane may or may not have an effect, the question is if this one will, which is why we must wait to see what movement comes out of FL, and not jump on the first poll.

Like I said, 61 % of Florida voters approved of how Scott handled Hurricane Michael. And 61% is not nothing. And now Scott is closer to 50 % than the previous poll released before the hurricane. So of course it has a great chance of having an impact just like Hurricane Sandy had a part of responsibility of boosting Obama a few days before the 2012 election because of his handling of Hurricane Sandy. And I guess that Hurricane Sandy is also a reason why Chris Christie won gubernatorial re-election by so much in 2013.

[Zaybay]

Zaybay always discredits the Pollster because he doesn't like the Numbers. This isn't just an Anti-Republican Year, it is a anti-Incumbent Year for people in Washington and Nelson has been in D. C. for 18 years and has done nothing good for Florida.

Its literally one Scott +2 poll. If Nelson were leading by 2 in this poll, I wouldnt jump and declare him the victor, especially if DeSantis were leading in the governor portion.

You did say the race was Lean D in a thread about a poll that had Scott winning though.

Well yeah, that was based off the clear momentum Nelson was showing in multiple pollsters. The hurricane wasnt in my thinking at the time, as it could have a clear impact moving it to tossup. I would like more polls before justifying a trend.

Pat McCrory helped with hurricane assistance and he still lost. The idea it will Scott over the edge is ludicrous.

Of course, the hurricane may or may not have an effect, the question is if this one will, which is why we must wait to see what movement comes out of FL, and not jump on the first poll.

Like I said, 61 % of Florida voters approved of how Scott handled Hurricane Michael. And 61% is not nothing. And now Scott is closer to 50 % than the previous poll released before the hurricane. So of course it has a great chance of having an impact just like Hurricane Sandy had a part of responsibility of boosting Obama a few days before the 2012 election because of his handling of Hurricane Sandy. And I guess that Hurricane Sandy is also a reason why Chris Christie won gubernatorial re-election by so much in 2013.

Wait, now that I think about it, shouldnt his vote share be higher? If he is getting such high checks for the hurricane, shouldnt he be leading by more? This should be his peak for hurricanes, it was the same for Obama, so why isnt he leading by more than just 2?

[UWS]

Zaybay always discredits the Pollster because he doesn't like the Numbers. This isn't just an Anti-Republican Year, it is a anti-Incumbent Year for people in Washington and Nelson has been in D. C. for 18 years and has done nothing good for Florida.

Its literally one Scott +2 poll. If Nelson were leading by 2 in this poll, I wouldnt jump and declare him the victor, especially if DeSantis were leading in the governor portion.

You did say the race was Lean D in a thread about a poll that had Scott winning though.

Well yeah, that was based off the clear momentum Nelson was showing in multiple pollsters. The hurricane wasnt in my thinking at the time, as it could have a clear impact moving it to tossup. I would like more polls before justifying a trend.

Pat McCrory helped with hurricane assistance and he still lost. The idea it will Scott over the edge is ludicrous.

Of course, the hurricane may or may not have an effect, the question is if this one will, which is why we must wait to see what movement comes out of FL, and not jump on the first poll.

Like I said, 61 % of Florida voters approved of how Scott handled Hurricane Michael. And 61% is not nothing. And now Scott is closer to 50 % than the previous poll released before the hurricane. So of course it has a great chance of having an impact just like Hurricane Sandy had a part of responsibility of boosting Obama a few days before the 2012 election because of his handling of Hurricane Sandy. And I guess that Hurricane Sandy is also a reason why Chris Christie won gubernatorial re-election by so much in 2013.

Wait, now that I think about it, shouldnt his vote share be higher? If he is getting such high checks for the hurricane, shouldnt he be leading by more? This should be his peak for hurricanes, it was the same for Obama, so why isnt he leading by more than just 2?

First we need more patience before we see the actual effects of this.

And Hurricane Sandy also contributed to Obama winning even more votes in New Jersey in 2012 than in 2008.

[Sir Mohamed]

61% approval for Rick Scott seems a bit high, doesn't it? Or does he have a "hurricane bump"?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I am prepared for worse, Dems losing 2-3 seats

[Zaybay]

I warned you guys, dont jump on the first poll you see.

[Yellowhammer]

I warned you guys, dont jump on the first poll you see.

This poll was conducted post-Michael, and long after the Kaiser poll (which was taken pre-Michael). If anything, this one is more relevant and perhaps more reflective of the current state of the race.

[Progressive Pessimist]

And also Scott's record as Governor : strong job creation and the fact that during his 8 years as Governor, education in Florida prospered. Florida passed from #35 in 2011 to #7 in the country in terms of education.

Attributing job creation to governors is usually a fool's errand. They usually just stand by and take credit for things that are out of their control.

That's true of Presidents and the economy in general too.

[Zaybay]

I warned you guys, dont jump on the first poll you see.

This poll was conducted post-Michael, and long after the Kaiser poll (which was taken pre-Michael). If anything, this one is more relevant and perhaps more reflective of the current state of the race.

As I said, I warned you guys not to jump to conclusions off of one poll.