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  TN (Reuters/Ipsos/UVA): Blackburn +3
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Author Topic: TN (Reuters/Ipsos/UVA): Blackburn +3  (Read 1698 times)
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« Reply #25 on: October 17, 2018, 11:29:21 am »

THIS. RACE. IS. NOT. OVER.

Of course it isn't.

Just because there's an outlier poll conducted after the Trump visit and massive GOP spending, it doesn't mean it's over.

Dems have reserved millions of $ for the final few weeks as well ...

"An outlier poll"

(misleading chart)

Donít bother him with facts.

Your chart is missing the percentages.

Since the year started, Bredesen and Blackburn have been within 4% all the time.

There have been 2 major outlier polls: the Axios and the NYT poll.

What kind of Bernie Math is this? All the polls of this race in the last month, in chronological order:

Blackburn +14 (Siena)
Blackburn +3 (Reuters)
Blackburn +8 (YouGov)
Blackburn +5 (FOX)
Tie (SurveyMonkey)
He was talking about removing these two polls, which are pretty obvious outliers.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #26 on: October 17, 2018, 11:32:13 am »

THIS. RACE. IS. NOT. OVER.

Of course it isn't.

Just because there's an outlier poll conducted after the Trump visit and massive GOP spending, it doesn't mean it's over.

Dems have reserved millions of $ for the final few weeks as well ...

"An outlier poll"

(misleading chart)

Donít bother him with facts.

Your chart is missing the percentages.

Since the year started, Bredesen and Blackburn have been within 4% all the time.

There have been 2 major outlier polls: the Axios and the NYT poll.

What kind of Bernie Math is this? All the polls of this race in the last month, in chronological order:

Blackburn +14 (Siena)
Blackburn +3 (Reuters)
Blackburn +8 (YouGov)
Blackburn +5 (FOX)
Tie (SurveyMonkey)

There's also the Bredesen internal poll, +1 for Blackburn vs. Bredesen +2 a month ago, showing no major movement.

And CNN and Vox Populi had him ahead as well.

+ I also take into account the Cygnal (R) poll of young voters, which Bredesen leads by double digits, assuming a close race as well overall.

If we average all these polls, Blackburn is only ahead in the 1-4% range, well within the MoE.
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« Reply #27 on: October 17, 2018, 11:32:51 am »

Can someone fill me in on the hate for Reuters/Ipsos polls? They don't produce "consistent" results, but that's not a mark of a bad pollster at all.

They are an online pollster using a panel (partially self-selected). Online polls are generally not the best.

But, on top of that...

You are right that having some variation in results is not normally the mark of a bad pollster, but with an online panel you should have much less variation than with a phone poll, and you are not subject to response bias in the same way.

So the fact that they have had so much volatility despite using an online panel is an indication of junkiness in that case, whereas it wouldn't be so much for a phone pollster.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #28 on: October 17, 2018, 11:36:06 am »

THIS. RACE. IS. NOT. OVER.

Of course it isn't.

Just because there's an outlier poll conducted after the Trump visit and massive GOP spending, it doesn't mean it's over.

Dems have reserved millions of $ for the final few weeks as well ...

"An outlier poll"

(misleading chart)

Donít bother him with facts.

Your chart is missing the percentages.

Since the year started, Bredesen and Blackburn have been within 4% all the time.

There have been 2 major outlier polls: the Axios and the NYT poll.

What kind of Bernie Math is this? All the polls of this race in the last month, in chronological order:

Blackburn +14 (Siena)
Blackburn +3 (Reuters)
Blackburn +8 (YouGov)
Blackburn +5 (FOX)
Tie (SurveyMonkey)
He was talking about removing these two polls, which are pretty obvious outliers.

You could just as easily say that this and the SurveyMonkey poll are outliers.

Regardless, even if you assume the race is currently Blackburn +5 or something, this is in a heavily Republican state where Democrats tend to overpoll and where "undecideds" almost always break Republican. Bredesen's trajectory is clearly downward and Blackburn's is clearly upward. The race is over.
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« Reply #29 on: October 17, 2018, 11:38:02 am »

So the delusion train seems to have departed from TX-SEN and is now making a stop in TN-SEN.

That it would do so based on a reuters poll is particularly strange, because the most recent reuters poll in TX had Beto up by 2 points.

So if you are deluded enough to think that Bredesen will win TN-SEN, you should certainly be deluded enough to think that Beto will win TX-SEN, and yet in the TX-SEN poll threads, everyone is now resigned to realistic pessimism, whereas in the TN-SEN polling threads some still cling to false hope.

Strange.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #30 on: October 17, 2018, 11:39:13 am »

THIS. RACE. IS. NOT. OVER.

Of course it isn't.

Just because there's an outlier poll conducted after the Trump visit and massive GOP spending, it doesn't mean it's over.

Dems have reserved millions of $ for the final few weeks as well ...

"An outlier poll"

(misleading chart)

Donít bother him with facts.

Your chart is missing the percentages.

Since the year started, Bredesen and Blackburn have been within 4% all the time.

There have been 2 major outlier polls: the Axios and the NYT poll.

What kind of Bernie Math is this? All the polls of this race in the last month, in chronological order:

Blackburn +14 (Siena)
Blackburn +3 (Reuters)
Blackburn +8 (YouGov)
Blackburn +5 (FOX)
Tie (SurveyMonkey)

There's also the Bredesen internal poll, +1 for Blackburn vs. Bredesen +2 a month ago, showing no major movement.

And CNN and Vox Populi had him ahead as well.

+ I also take into account the Cygnal (R) poll of young voters, which Bredesen leads by double digits, assuming a close race as well overall.

If we average all these polls, Blackburn is only ahead in the 1-4% range, well within the MoE.

CNN and Vox Populi are from over a month ago, completely irrelevant. As are internal polls.
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« Reply #31 on: October 17, 2018, 11:39:25 am »

Vox Populi had him ahead as well.

OMG (some) people are citing Vox Populi with a straight face.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #32 on: October 17, 2018, 11:42:15 am »

So the delusion train seems to have departed from TX-SEN and is now making a stop in TN-SEN.

That it would do so based on a reuters poll is particularly strange, because the most recent reuters poll in TX had Beto up by 2 points.

So if you are deluded enough to think that Bredesen will win TN-SEN, you should certainly be deluded enough to think that Beto will win TX-SEN, and yet in the TX-SEN poll threads, everyone is now resigned to realistic pessimism, whereas in the TN-SEN polling threads some still cling to false hope.

Strange.

I think at this point people will grasp at any possible straw to pretend Dems still have a chance at taking the Senate. Once more Tennessee polls show Blackburn dominating it'll suddenly become "Hey guys, we haven't gotten a North Dakota poll in a while...I bet Heitkamp has surged!"
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« Reply #33 on: October 17, 2018, 12:12:00 pm »

You could just as easily say that this and the SurveyMonkey poll are outliers.

Regardless, even if you assume the race is currently Blackburn +5 or something, this is in a heavily Republican state where Democrats tend to overpoll and where "undecideds" almost always break Republican. Bredesen's trajectory is clearly downward and Blackburn's is clearly upward. The race is over.

Exactly. If the polling average in TN-SEN returns to something like Bredesen +5, then maybe we can talk about Bredesen having a realistic chance to win. But even if the race were tied (which it is not), that does not mean Bredesen has a 50-50 chance to win - it means that Blackburn will more than likely win.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #34 on: October 17, 2018, 10:23:22 pm »

Hey guys, we got a new chart.



I'm not sure I've ever seen a prettier collapse in a decade of poll watching.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #35 on: November 13, 2018, 04:47:21 pm »

Junk poll!
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