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September 20, 2019, 03:15:26 pm
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  TN (Reuters/Ipsos/UVA): Blackburn +3 (search mode)
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Author Topic: TN (Reuters/Ipsos/UVA): Blackburn +3  (Read 1862 times)
Senate/SCOTUS/EC Delenda Est 👁
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« on: October 17, 2018, 11:09:05 am »

LOL @ anyone changing their opinion based on a reuters poll.
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« Reply #1 on: October 17, 2018, 11:32:51 am »

Can someone fill me in on the hate for Reuters/Ipsos polls? They don't produce "consistent" results, but that's not a mark of a bad pollster at all.

They are an online pollster using a panel (partially self-selected). Online polls are generally not the best.

But, on top of that...

You are right that having some variation in results is not normally the mark of a bad pollster, but with an online panel you should have much less variation than with a phone poll, and you are not subject to response bias in the same way.

So the fact that they have had so much volatility despite using an online panel is an indication of junkiness in that case, whereas it wouldn't be so much for a phone pollster.
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« Reply #2 on: October 17, 2018, 11:38:02 am »

So the delusion train seems to have departed from TX-SEN and is now making a stop in TN-SEN.

That it would do so based on a reuters poll is particularly strange, because the most recent reuters poll in TX had Beto up by 2 points.

So if you are deluded enough to think that Bredesen will win TN-SEN, you should certainly be deluded enough to think that Beto will win TX-SEN, and yet in the TX-SEN poll threads, everyone is now resigned to realistic pessimism, whereas in the TN-SEN polling threads some still cling to false hope.

Strange.
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« Reply #3 on: October 17, 2018, 11:39:25 am »


OMG (some) people are citing Vox Populi with a straight face.
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« Reply #4 on: October 17, 2018, 12:12:00 pm »

You could just as easily say that this and the SurveyMonkey poll are outliers.

Regardless, even if you assume the race is currently Blackburn +5 or something, this is in a heavily Republican state where Democrats tend to overpoll and where "undecideds" almost always break Republican. Bredesen's trajectory is clearly downward and Blackburn's is clearly upward. The race is over.

Exactly. If the polling average in TN-SEN returns to something like Bredesen +5, then maybe we can talk about Bredesen having a realistic chance to win. But even if the race were tied (which it is not), that does not mean Bredesen has a 50-50 chance to win - it means that Blackburn will more than likely win.
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