I'm confused why Trump approval in many of these state polls is so at odds with the national polls. If Trump is -10 nationwide, there's no way he should be +6 in AZ, or -1 in NV, or even +7 in TX.
They're probably assuming that turnout will look like it has (at least in terms or race and age) in previous midterms.
They do list the results of many different turnout models. Among "the types of people who voted in 2014", McSally is +9.
If Trump's approval rating is like 20% in CA/NY/MA/MD-DC-NoVa it could really skew the numbers.
