Hugin is more likely to win than Bredesen, O'Rourke, or Heitkamp.
Hugin is less likely to win than all three, and it's not even close. Hugin hasn't even been close in recent polls and I'm confident undecideds are going to break hard for Menendez.
That said, it's a travesty that this race is so close.
Undecideds tend to break in favour of corrupted incumbent in what world?
This assumption is based on the disproportionate numbers of undecideds in this race who fall into one of the following categories: women, non-white, from the Philadelphia suburbs. This is a typical assumption that often holds true, though it discounts that all reasons for indecision are not alike.
However, this poll also shows that a disproportionate number of undecideds are from the Shore, non-educated, and independents (especially among women), groups that all go for Hugin. I wouldn't assume the conventional wisdom holds up here.