538 - Governors Forcast Up
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Author Topic: 538 - Governors Forcast Up  (Read 1802 times)
Gass3268
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« on: October 17, 2018, 12:04:16 PM »
« edited: October 17, 2018, 01:32:21 PM by Gass3268 »
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Gass3268
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« Reply #1 on: October 17, 2018, 12:05:25 PM »
Predictions?
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Zaybay
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« Reply #2 on: October 17, 2018, 12:07:46 PM »
Democrats at 23 governorships, Republicans at 27, I am not sure which states will be in which direction.
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American2020
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« Reply #3 on: October 17, 2018, 01:21:07 PM »
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Wisconsin SC Race 2019
hofoid
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« Reply #4 on: October 17, 2018, 01:27:41 PM »
They actually have Cordray about as likely to win as Abrams in Georgia. What a laugh. OH-GOV is gonna be a DeWine slam dunk.
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adrac
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« Reply #5 on: October 17, 2018, 01:27:56 PM »
It's up now.
I'm surprised by the confidence in ME, IA, and especially RI. IA vs WI and RI vs CT relative to each other were also big surprised for me.
Can't wait to see the individual race pages.
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Wisconsin SC Race 2019
hofoid
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« Reply #6 on: October 17, 2018, 01:30:03 PM »
Too rosy on Dems in the Midwest (look at those Wisconsin, Iowa, and Ohio numbers), but a solid metric otherwise.
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adrac
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« Reply #7 on: October 17, 2018, 01:32:41 PM »
I really like how the focus on population governed, as this is what really matters here. Really puts into perspective how big the Democrat's gains could be.
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Skye
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« Reply #8 on: October 17, 2018, 01:32:59 PM »
Sad that you can't click on each race to find out what's going on. Especially considering there are some odd results.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #9 on: October 17, 2018, 01:37:05 PM »
Probably most surprised by Iowa. I think Hubbell wins, but this seems to be a bit too confident. Everything else looks about right.
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Skye
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« Reply #10 on: October 17, 2018, 01:40:21 PM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on October 17, 2018, 01:37:05 PM
Probably most surprised by Iowa. I think Hubbell wins, but this seems to be a bit too confident. Everything else looks about right.

I think their "fundamentals" are distorting these results a little too much. Their "lite" version is closer to the results I had in mind, at least at first glance. But maybe that's just me.
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Zaybay
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« Reply #11 on: October 17, 2018, 01:42:28 PM »
Quote from: American2020 on October 17, 2018, 01:21:07 PM


Oh, so close, off by decimals. Anyway, similar prediction to what I have, though I am more rosy on OH.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #12 on: October 17, 2018, 01:43:05 PM »
Quote from: yeah_93 on October 17, 2018, 01:40:21 PM
Quote from: Gass3268 on October 17, 2018, 01:37:05 PM
Probably most surprised by Iowa. I think Hubbell wins, but this seems to be a bit too confident. Everything else looks about right.

I think their "fundamentals" are distorting these results a little too much. Their "lite" version is closer to the results I had in mind, at least at first glance. But maybe that's just me.

Yet in the "lite" version, Evers' chances go up by 13 points, haha.
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Skye
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« Reply #13 on: October 17, 2018, 01:48:18 PM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on October 17, 2018, 01:43:05 PM
Quote from: yeah_93 on October 17, 2018, 01:40:21 PM
Quote from: Gass3268 on October 17, 2018, 01:37:05 PM
Probably most surprised by Iowa. I think Hubbell wins, but this seems to be a bit too confident. Everything else looks about right.

I think their "fundamentals" are distorting these results a little too much. Their "lite" version is closer to the results I had in mind, at least at first glance. But maybe that's just me.

Yet in the "lite" version, Evers' chances go up by 13 points, haha.

Considering that model only takes polls into account, and they've mostly been rosy to Evers, I wouldn't expect it any other way.
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #14 on: October 17, 2018, 01:48:59 PM »
I find some things questionable. While I do think Fred Hubbell will defeat Kim Reynolds, I think that it won't be by 8 points. I think it'll be 5 at most.
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Xing
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« Reply #15 on: October 17, 2018, 02:00:54 PM »
I agree that their lite model is probably the best (although LOL at NV, and I think a 62% chance for Evers is more realistic than a 74% chance.) IA seems very bullish for Democrats, I'd sooner call it a Toss-Up slightly tilted toward the Democrats.
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Holy Unifying Centrist
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« Reply #16 on: October 17, 2018, 02:03:37 PM »
Quote from: Reasonable™ Moderate Republican on October 17, 2018, 02:00:54 PM
I agree that their lite model is probably the best (although LOL at NV, and I think a 62% chance for Evers is more realistic than a 74% chance.) IA seems very bullish for Democrats, I'd sooner call it a Toss-Up slightly tilted toward the Democrats.

Actually, 62.45% is far more realistic for Evers. You're way underestimating him
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MAINEiac4434
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« Reply #17 on: October 17, 2018, 02:13:11 PM »
They have Maine at likely D and place Mills with a 91% chance of winning which seems...generous.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #18 on: October 17, 2018, 02:13:41 PM »
« Edited: October 17, 2018, 02:49:04 PM by President Johnson »
What? Fred Hubbell has a 84% chance of victory? Seems a bit high. I also don't buy that Janet Mills will end up with 54% of the vote.

Great numbers for Gillum though. Hope Steve Sisolak can also pull ahead, as he is one of my favorite candidates.

The New York prediction also looks great, King Andy almost at 60%.
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American2020
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« Reply #19 on: October 17, 2018, 02:16:49 PM »


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Doimper
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« Reply #20 on: October 17, 2018, 02:20:13 PM »
I really like how they make the states not up this year a darker hue of their party's color instead of blanking them out. Makes it much easier to visualize the entire landscape.
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #21 on: October 17, 2018, 02:46:28 PM »
This seems mostly right, with the obvious exceptions of Nevada (way too bearish on Sisolak) and Iowa (way too bullish for Hubbell, although I think he will pull it out).
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President Johnson
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« Reply #22 on: October 17, 2018, 02:48:39 PM »
Quote from: ON Progressive on October 17, 2018, 02:46:28 PM
This seems mostly right, with the obvious exceptions of Nevada (way too bearish on Sisolak) and Iowa (way too bullish for Hubbell, although I think he will pull it out).

Sisolak is ahead by an inch in the deluxe version, though.
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Scottholes 2.0
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« Reply #23 on: October 17, 2018, 02:48:51 PM »
Will these ratings be updated? D+2.2 seems really low for WI.
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #24 on: October 17, 2018, 02:50:43 PM »
« Edited: October 17, 2018, 02:54:44 PM by ON Progressive »
Quote from: President Johnson on October 17, 2018, 02:48:39 PM
Quote from: ON Progressive on October 17, 2018, 02:46:28 PM
This seems mostly right, with the obvious exceptions of Nevada (way too bearish on Sisolak) and Iowa (way too bullish for Hubbell, although I think he will pull it out).

Sisolak is ahead by an inch in the deluxe version, though.

That proves my point. Sisolak is not losing or even tied, especially if he's polling better than Rosen.
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