Redistricting victims next cycle.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Pennsylvania:
-I could see Lamb being sacrificed (there's no way to  make 2 Dem-leaning seats out of the Pitt area without ugliness in the lines/tearing across counties...besides, this will clear the way for him to take on Toomey in 2022)

Wisconsin:
-GOP are favoured to take the trifecta...I could see Kind's district being pushed toward the Hudson area, which is full of GOP Twin Cities exurban voters.

Minnesota:
-Walz's district is gonna get the chop regardless of whether a Dem or a Republican hold this by 2020.

Alabama:
-I could see Mo Brooks being punished for his "NeverTrump" stance and having his district get the chop between the 3rd and 4th.


Who else do you see being affected?

[Nyvin]

How do you chop up MN-1?   there's going to be a southeast district in any map that's drawn.

[muon2]

How do you chop up MN-1?   there's going to be a southeast district in any map that's drawn.

Agreed. It's hard to picture a serious plan that isn't essentially 4 CDs in the Twin City Metro and 3 CDs for the rest of the state. Rochester/Olmstead county is the anchor of SE MN and is growing. That means something like the current MN-1 will survive.

[palandio]

Pennsylvania:
-I could see Lamb being sacrificed (there's no way to  make 2 Dem-leaning seats out of the Pitt area without ugliness in the lines/tearing across counties...besides, this will clear the way for him to take on Toomey in 2022)
[...]

The new PA-17 is R+3, i.e. clearly not Dem-leaning.

It is possible to draw a Likely D district which is fully in Allegheny County and includes Pittsburgh plus Northern and Western suburbs, and a toss-up district which includes the remaining Eastern and Southern suburbs plus Washington County and some adjacent areas along the Monongahela. Sadly DRA doesn't work for me anymore, so I cannot prove it, but the idea should be quite clear.

[cvparty]

Pennsylvania:
-I could see Lamb being sacrificed (there's no way to  make 2 Dem-leaning seats out of the Pitt area without ugliness in the lines/tearing across counties...besides, this will clear the way for him to take on Toomey in 2022)

Wisconsin:
-GOP are favoured to take the trifecta...I could see Kind's district being pushed toward the Hudson area, which is full of GOP Twin Cities exurban voters.

Minnesota:
-Walz's district is gonna get the chop regardless of whether a Dem or a Republican hold this by 2020.

Alabama:
-I could see Mo Brooks being punished for his "NeverTrump" stance and having his district get the chop between the 3rd and 4th.


Who else do you see being affected?

lamb wouldn’t necessarily be dead. he could still get a R+5 district if you keep his current area and add washco, which would be winnable

gop aRE faVoUReD to TaKE the TRifEcTA

mn would probably have a district containing the whole northern half of mn, most of which would be mn-08 plus nw mn. so not really. if anything mn-07 probably goes, with north going to the 8th, south going to the 1st, and the rest going to the 6th

i could see some pub seats going in nj if dems win big in the house delegation and the commission wants to protect incumbents. possibly ungerrymandered atlanta seats if abrams wins, and nc if the gop can’t go crazy with the lines anymore. some seat in the detroit area will go, balderson’s district could become even/d-leaning with ohio’s ballot initiative, and ny-22 might get chopped up (it will be some upstate district)

[Nyvin]

Alabama - AL-7 is most underpopulated but also VRA so it'll obviously survive in some form. AL-6 is probably the district that gets cut up, in fact I think it's the only real choice.

Illinois - IL-16 will probably get divided up between Chicagoland and the rest of the state.  IL-14 will take it's place as the border district.

Michigan - Probably lose a Detroit district (MI-13?).  On the plus side MI-12 will probably get pushed out of Wayne so Washtenaw can finally have it's own district (with some surrounding counties obviously).

Minnesota - MN-7 gets chopped.  Have one big gigantic "Northern Minnesota" district, and then divide the rest between MN-1 and MN-6.

New York - NY-22 is the most centrally located and the most underpopulated. Since Upstate NY is the big loser with NY redistricting it's the prime target.

Ohio - BLEH!  Redo the whole map, what a mess.

Pennsylvania - Tough one.   I'd guess the best option is PA-12.   The northeast is the most underpopulated, so expand PA-8 and PA-9 into PA-12 to accommodate the eastern part of the state, give PA-15 the rest to accommodate the rest of the state.  

West Virginia - WV-2.  Duh.

[Devils30]

If GOP wins MN-8 and Dems get legislature, expect Peterson to retire after 2020 and Dems to combine the reddest areas of 7 and 8. Maybe they create a bluer Minneapolis suburbs to Duluth district and chop off the rural areas.

[Oryxslayer]

I'll just run off a list:

AZ: Always weird, watch the swing vote. But since they are gaining a seat, its more likely the current map gets reinforced and goes from 4 R - 4 D - 1 Swing to 5 R - 4 D - 1 Swing.

AL: AL-03 I think is the dead seat: 6, 7, and 2 each eat bits especially since 7 needs more of the Black Belt from 2.

GA: Considering the number of close calls the Republican are going to have in 6 and 7 (2017, 2018, maybe even 2020) I suspect even under Kemp one becomes a White/Hispanic/Black dem pack. GA also I think now requires a fourth BVAP seat, so GA-02 eats the entire black belt. This isn't even considering an Abrams-R Legislature compromise map, which probably endangers quite a few Atlanta Rs.  

IN: Will R's try and sink either of the two natural dem seats? Trump/Pence numbers here were certainly inflated, and the occasional competitiveness of 9 and 2 make me think the two dems seats just become deeper vote sinks. This of course depends on Reps holding the governorship in 2020.

IL: Quite a lot will happen here. IL-06 becomes blue, and IL-14 now becomes the exurban/suburban R pack for Chicagoland. IL-12/13 gets cut/merged with the new seat taking the bluest parts of both for a new D-leaning seat. Overall, 4 rep seats are left.  

KY: The constitution prevents cutting KY-03 into oblivion, but if McGrath is still around in 2020 then she is definitely out of a job. This also depends on R's hold the gov seat in 2019.

LA: In 2010, New Orleans was still recovering from Katrina. If Edwards wins in 2019, than LA might be in for a battle over drawing a second BVAP seat. Its not hard to do of course - one seat centered on New Orleans, and one from Batan to Shreveport. Rs however will fight tooth and nail to prevent this from happening.

MD: Are dems greedy enough to go 8-0?

MI: With the new fair commission, there will be a lot changing on this map. The only real guarantee is that if Republicans don't lose seats here in 2018, there will be a lot of red tears in 2020. One interesting thing though is that pop losses in the north mean MI-01 is creeping even more southwards, squeezing the rest of the seats with drastic consequences. I have drawn one map for instance that transforms 6 from a SW seat to a central one just because of pop shifts shoving 2, 3, and 4 south.

MN: MN-07 is the cut seat, with one big southern MN-01 forming, One big central MN-06, and one big northern MN-07. Though this map can vary a lot depending on if dems have a trifecta...

MO: R's could spidermander St. Louis, but such a map would probably anger the present R delegation and depends on winning the gov seat in 2020. So probably doesn't happen. Instead, 5 probably eats the Bluer north suburbs.

NJ: NJ protects incumbents. The map will get weird depending on who represents what come 2020.

NY: With a dem trifecta, much is possible. NY-22 gets the ax, and under a fair map this locks down every upstate seat for its dem or rep incumbent. Especially if Syracuse gets custody of Ithaca. But under a dem gerry, who knows what will happen...

OH: Tear it all down, and start over. The new redistricting law still makes it possible to gerry, but very hard to with strict cut requirements. For example, OH-01 now basically can't escape being fully encased in Hamilton, a prospect that can produce a seat anywhere between Tossup and D+4. Generally however, I suspect dems gain 1-2 seats. OH-15 is the present seat that gets cut.

PA: PA-17 actually easily survives in most "least change" maps I have drawn, it takes in Lawrence, a bit more of Allegheny, and a town in Westmoreland/Butler. Rather, the seat that oftern gets cut is 9, which makes 7 or 8 more republican, but less then R+5 of course . Interestingly, if such a seat includes Schuylkill...return of Tim Holden?

TN: No way around it, TN-05 is DOA.

UT: Someone is going to become a semi-victim and get stuck with a R+4 SLC seat if this mixed redistricting reform package gets passed. Or the commission could even be nice and give dems a blue tilting seat, which means someone got the axe.

VA: Dem Gerry is going to kill any of the three Republican seats (2, 7, 10) that Pubs manage to hold this year.

WA: H-B could be a victim if the commission ends up dem dominated. But more likely she survives and the 8th takes in inner suburbs to become more blue.

WI: If dems lose the gov race in November, WI-03 is dead. If they do win though, than WI-03 and WI-02 probably cut Dane to make them both safe.

WV: WV03 is the most ancestral dem friendly seat. so it gets divided in twain.

[Zaybay]

Alright, Ill take a stab at this. Ill only talk about the states losing a CD though.




-First up, AL. Due to the VRA, the Democratic seat in the Black Belt will likely stay in place, so it will be a Republican who is cut. The Black Belt has been steady losing population, so its likely that the district being sacrificed would have enough AA Democrats to keep the seat afloat. The GOP can take two different approaches. They can sacrifice AL-02 to give the Dems Birmingham, or they can sacrifice AL-06, and give Dems the entire Black Belt. I would go with AL-06 being on the chopping block, so you can say goodbye to Gary Palmer.

-Next up, IL. Now, IL will probably be gerrymandered to hell and back by Madigan and his crew, so its hard to say which seat gets the axe. IL-06 and IL-14 would be made a part of the Democratic Chicago block, while the D leaning areas left in downstate would be merged together to form a district. This would leave around 4 districts to the Rs, but if Madigan really takes out the pen, it could go down to 3.

-MI is gonna be a big one. The redistricting commission being put into the state will be rather effective, and the map will likely be completely different compared to the current one. Unlike in IL, the seats in Detroit are likely to branch out, not compact inward, due to Detroit's decline. More seats would be scrunched up in the Southwest and Southeast, as the North of the state continues to become desolate. The commission would likely find a 7R-6D map.

-MN is an odd state, with all three rural areas being represented by Ds. That wont last, however. With a likely D governor and possible trifecta, the results will likely be beneficial to the Dems. The concentration of the suburban seats in the Twin cities, with MN-06 serving as an R vote sink for the area. If a district had to go, it would be MN-07, with the seat being split between the other two rural areas. This would likely make the two rather hard to win for the Dems, so its possible some parts of the D suburbs may be put into MN-08 to keep at least 1 swing district.

-OH, even with the commission and possible D governor, will still be rather favorable to Rs. The seat lost would have to be a central OH district in the rurals, as the Ds are already in vote sink districts. The city of Cinncinatti would finally have a voice, as the seat will have to be redrawn to, at the very least, a neutral district. It would still be a mess, however.

-PA will be interesting, and really depends on how well the Ds do in the state legislature. In the most R favored scenario, the Ds keep the governorship, the Rs lose the supermajorities. This would likely mean the cut district is in the center of the state. However, PA-17 would probably absorb a lot of of R turf, making it hard for even Lamb to win, so a rather neutral move.

In the moderate to best case scenario, Lamb's seat would stay at least neutral, and the Rs would still lose a seat in the center.

-RI is a battle to the death.

-WV will be interesting. There is a chance that the Ds take the governorship and, funnily enough, a state chamber in 2020. In the best R case scenario, WV would be split on a latitude, not a longitude, which would eliminate the D base in WV-03. In the D best case, the Ds would force a longitude split, with the 3rd taking as much D leaning land as possible to at least maintain a possible seat pickup.


Thats what I got so far.

[Brittain33]

4 bases in Alabama have to have their own districts:

• African-American (7)
• Mobile (1)
• Huntsville/northern tier (5)
• Birmingham suburbs (6)

This all points to the 3rd district being dismembered or moving so far north it's effectively a different district.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Alright, Ill take a stab at this. Ill only talk about the states losing a CD though.




-First up, AL. Due to the VRA, the Democratic seat in the Black Belt will likely stay in place, so it will be a Republican who is cut. The Black Belt has been steady losing population, so its likely that the district being sacrificed would have enough AA Democrats to keep the seat afloat. The GOP can take two different approaches. They can sacrifice AL-02 to give the Dems Birmingham, or they can sacrifice AL-02, and give Dems the entire Black Belt. I would go with AL-06 being on the chopping block, so you can say goodbye to Gary Palmer.

-Next up, IL. Now, IL will probably be gerrymandered to hell and back by Madigan and his crew, so its hard to say which seat gets the axe. IL-06 and IL-14 would be made a part of the Democratic Chicago block, while the D leaning areas left in downstate would be merged together to form a district. This would leave around 4 districts to the Rs, but if Madigan really takes out the pen, it could go down to 3.

-MI is gonna be a big one. The redistricting commission being put into the state will be rather effective, and the map will likely be completely different compared to the current one. Unlike in IL, the seats in Detroit are likely to branch out, not compact inward, due to Detroit's decline. More seats would be scrunched up in the Southwest and Southeast, as the North of the state continues to become desolate. The commission would likely find a 7R-6D map.

-MN is an odd state, with all three rural areas being represented by Ds. That wont last, however. With a likely D governor and possible trifecta, the results will likely be beneficial to the Dems. The concentration of the suburban seats in the Twin cities, with MN-06 serving as an R vote sink for the area. If a district had to go, it would be MN-07, with the seat being split between the other two rural areas. This would likely make the two rather hard to win for the Dems, so its possible some parts of the D suburbs may be put into MN-08 to keep at least 1 swing district.

-OH, even with the commission and possible D governor, will still be rather favorable to Rs. The seat lost would have to be a central OH district in the rurals, as the Ds are already in vote sink districts. The city of Cinncinatti would finally have a voice, as the seat will have to be redrawn to, at the very least, a neutral district. It would still be a mess, however.

-PA will be interesting, and really depends on how well the Ds do in the state legislature. In the most R favored scenario, the Ds keep the governorship, the Rs lose the supermajorities. This would likely mean the cut district is in the center of the state. However, PA-17 would probably absorb a lot of of R turf, making it hard for even Lamb to win, so a rather neutral move.

In the moderate to best case scenario, Lamb's seat would stay at least neutral, and the Rs would still lose a seat in the center.

-RI is a battle to the death.

-WV will be interesting. There is a chance that the Ds take the governorship and, funnily enough, a state chamber in 2020. In the best R case scenario, WV would be split on a latitude, not a longitude, which would eliminate the D base in WV-03. In the D best case, the Ds would force a longitude split, with the 3rd taking as much D leaning land as possible to at least maintain a possible seat pickup.


Thats what I got so far.

Where did you hear that Ohio will have an independent commission?

[palandio]

-MN is an odd state, with all three rural areas being represented by Ds. That wont last, however. With a likely D governor and possible trifecta, the results will likely be beneficial to the Dems. The concentration of the suburban seats in the Twin cities, with MN-06 serving as an R vote sink for the area. If a district had to go, it would be MN-07, with the seat being split between the other two rural areas. This would likely make the two rather hard to win for the Dems, so its possible some parts of the D suburbs may be put into MN-08 to keep at least 1 swing district.

The area from Clay County northwards is actually the most Dem friendly part of MN-07. A successor of MN-08 that includes this area, but excludes Morrison County and Wadena County, would actually be slightly more Dem friendly than the old MN-08.

[Oryxslayer]

Alright, Ill take a stab at this. Ill only talk about the states losing a CD though.




-First up, AL. Due to the VRA, the Democratic seat in the Black Belt will likely stay in place, so it will be a Republican who is cut. The Black Belt has been steady losing population, so its likely that the district being sacrificed would have enough AA Democrats to keep the seat afloat. The GOP can take two different approaches. They can sacrifice AL-02 to give the Dems Birmingham, or they can sacrifice AL-02, and give Dems the entire Black Belt. I would go with AL-06 being on the chopping block, so you can say goodbye to Gary Palmer.

-Next up, IL. Now, IL will probably be gerrymandered to hell and back by Madigan and his crew, so its hard to say which seat gets the axe. IL-06 and IL-14 would be made a part of the Democratic Chicago block, while the D leaning areas left in downstate would be merged together to form a district. This would leave around 4 districts to the Rs, but if Madigan really takes out the pen, it could go down to 3.

-MI is gonna be a big one. The redistricting commission being put into the state will be rather effective, and the map will likely be completely different compared to the current one. Unlike in IL, the seats in Detroit are likely to branch out, not compact inward, due to Detroit's decline. More seats would be scrunched up in the Southwest and Southeast, as the North of the state continues to become desolate. The commission would likely find a 7R-6D map.

-MN is an odd state, with all three rural areas being represented by Ds. That wont last, however. With a likely D governor and possible trifecta, the results will likely be beneficial to the Dems. The concentration of the suburban seats in the Twin cities, with MN-06 serving as an R vote sink for the area. If a district had to go, it would be MN-07, with the seat being split between the other two rural areas. This would likely make the two rather hard to win for the Dems, so its possible some parts of the D suburbs may be put into MN-08 to keep at least 1 swing district.

-OH, even with the commission and possible D governor, will still be rather favorable to Rs. The seat lost would have to be a central OH district in the rurals, as the Ds are already in vote sink districts. The city of Cinncinatti would finally have a voice, as the seat will have to be redrawn to, at the very least, a neutral district. It would still be a mess, however.

-PA will be interesting, and really depends on how well the Ds do in the state legislature. In the most R favored scenario, the Ds keep the governorship, the Rs lose the supermajorities. This would likely mean the cut district is in the center of the state. However, PA-17 would probably absorb a lot of of R turf, making it hard for even Lamb to win, so a rather neutral move.

In the moderate to best case scenario, Lamb's seat would stay at least neutral, and the Rs would still lose a seat in the center.

-RI is a battle to the death.

-WV will be interesting. There is a chance that the Ds take the governorship and, funnily enough, a state chamber in 2020. In the best R case scenario, WV would be split on a latitude, not a longitude, which would eliminate the D base in WV-03. In the D best case, the Ds would force a longitude split, with the 3rd taking as much D leaning land as possible to at least maintain a possible seat pickup.


Thats what I got so far.

Where did you hear that Ohio will have an independent commission?

There is a initiative on the ballot this year that establishes a commission over redistricting. Its members are prominent statewide elected officials and the majority/minority leaders of the legislature. So it is not independent, but multi-partisan - maps need to be agreed to by members of both sides. If they are not agreed, then the old Legislature+Gov route can pass a map, but it only holds for 4 years. This initiative is endorsed by both sides (Dems see it as reform, reps see it as reform that still has them hold power), so will pass overwhelmingly.

Now even if Reps go the most partisan route, their hands will still be tied. Even the Legislature+Gov map route is now limited in a variety of ways: limited number of cuts it can be made, how many times one can cut certain counties, large cities need to be kept whole or if larger then a seat (Cleveland/Columbus) make up the majority of a district, if a county is larger then a district, it needs to be kept as whole as possible, etc. This means we don't know what will happen, but one guaranteed change will be Hamilton in the SW now getting its own seat, rather then cut in two. As I mentioned above, this seat can be anywhere from Tossup to D+4, depending on which suburbs (North Dem, East/West Rep) are in the seat.

[Nyvin]

4 bases in Alabama have to have their own districts:

• African-American (7)
• Mobile (1)
• Huntsville/northern tier (5)
• Birmingham suburbs (6)

This all points to the 3rd district being dismembered or moving so far north it's effectively a different district.

But the 3rd is on the eastern boarder.   It makes more sense to just expand it into AL-6 and move it north so AL-7 can get more AA voters.   Then cut off that northern part of AL-6 and give it to the two northern district.   

Removing AL-3 altogether would require basically an entirely new map.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

4 bases in Alabama have to have their own districts:

• African-American (7)
• Mobile (1)
• Huntsville/northern tier (5)
• Birmingham suburbs (6)

This all points to the 3rd district being dismembered or moving so far north it's effectively a different district.

But the 3rd is on the eastern boarder.   It makes more sense to just expand it into AL-6 and move it north so AL-7 can get more AA voters.   Then cut off that northern part of AL-6 and give it to the two northern district.   

Removing AL-3 altogether would require basically an entirely new map.

Why not eliminate AL-4?

[Zaybay]

-MN is an odd state, with all three rural areas being represented by Ds. That wont last, however. With a likely D governor and possible trifecta, the results will likely be beneficial to the Dems. The concentration of the suburban seats in the Twin cities, with MN-06 serving as an R vote sink for the area. If a district had to go, it would be MN-07, with the seat being split between the other two rural areas. This would likely make the two rather hard to win for the Dems, so its possible some parts of the D suburbs may be put into MN-08 to keep at least 1 swing district.

The area from Clay County northwards is actually the most Dem friendly part of MN-07. A successor of MN-08 that includes this area, but excludes Morrison County and Wadena County, would actually be slightly more Dem friendly than the old MN-08.

Interesting, I had no idea. I still think it would get more red, due to the fact that the rurals have been trending R, but its highly possible that it stays a winnable seat.

[Virginiá]

i could see some pub seats going in nj if dems win big in the house delegation and the commission wants to protect incumbents. possibly ungerrymandered atlanta seats if abrams wins, and nc if the gop can’t go crazy with the lines anymore. some seat in the detroit area will go, balderson’s district could become even/d-leaning with ohio’s ballot initiative, and ny-22 might get chopped up (it will be some upstate district)

Could they even adequately protect the number of Democrats that seem to be on track to winning (10-11)? NJ is a state where Republicans tend to do fairly well downballot when a Democrat is in the White House, like wayyy over-performing the presidential results, so any good map that ensures a certain high # of Dem seats would seem to require being more practical and less greedy.

There is a initiative on the ballot this year that establishes a commission over redistricting. Its members are prominent statewide elected officials and the majority/minority leaders of the legislature. So it is not independent, but multi-partisan - maps need to be agreed to by members of both sides. If they are not agreed, then the old Legislature+Gov route can pass a map, but it only holds for 4 years. This initiative is endorsed by both sides (Dems see it as reform, reps see it as reform that still has them hold power), so will pass overwhelmingly.

[...]

It already passed overwhelmingly. It was on the ballot in the primary.

[Oryxslayer]

i could see some pub seats going in nj if dems win big in the house delegation and the commission wants to protect incumbents. possibly ungerrymandered atlanta seats if abrams wins, and nc if the gop can’t go crazy with the lines anymore. some seat in the detroit area will go, balderson’s district could become even/d-leaning with ohio’s ballot initiative, and ny-22 might get chopped up (it will be some upstate district)

Could they even adequately protect the number of Democrats that seem to be on track to winning (10-11)? NJ is a state where Republicans tend to do fairly well downballot when a Democrat is in the White House, like wayyy over-performing the presidential results, so any good map that ensures a certain high # of Dem seats would seem to require being more practical and less greedy.

There is a initiative on the ballot this year that establishes a commission over redistricting. Its members are prominent statewide elected officials and the majority/minority leaders of the legislature. So it is not independent, but multi-partisan - maps need to be agreed to by members of both sides. If they are not agreed, then the old Legislature+Gov route can pass a map, but it only holds for 4 years. This initiative is endorsed by both sides (Dems see it as reform, reps see it as reform that still has them hold power), so will pass overwhelmingly.

[...]

It already passed overwhelmingly. It was on the ballot in the primary.

I have drawn a 11-1 NJ which ends up with most seats as D+5 ish. Its no too hand, you just have to be willing to spiral NJ-04 from The residence in Hamilton township to Ocean and then across the state to Warren and Sussex. In a simmilar fashion to how LoBoindo's seat was drawn in previous years, Van Drew can probably survive with D+3, making such a map more feasible. It however does get easier if the 2020 seats are 10-2, you can get two R-Packs: one for the south and one for the north.

Oh, I didn't realize The reform was a primary initiative, I thought it was on the November ballot.

[Virginiá]

Oryxslayer how well would Democrats do on this map in 2014? The House PV was D+2 in NJ in that midterm. Republicans won it by a bit over 1 point in 2010. I just feel like going by PVI doesn't do the real environment justice. PVI in NJ is like the best-case scenario.

[Oryxslayer]

Oryxslayer how well would Democrats do on this map in 2014? The House PV was D+2 in NJ in that midterm. Republicans won it by a bit over 1 point in 2010. I just feel like going by PVI doesn't do the real environment justice. PVI in NJ is like the best-case scenario.

They would certainly do worse, but we really only have partial partisan data for 2020. We still lack 2018, 2019, and 2020 data - 2020 being the elephant in the room. We really don't know if trends will hold or change, come 2020 Morris might be blue. Or Somerset might be red. We don't know. But PVI is the most recent data point.

Also...of course 2014 was only D+2. 2016 was the first year any of the northern seats were comptative. Frankly the first time any non NJ-03 seat was seen as competive.

[Sol]

David Cicilline is guaranteed. He's loathed in Rhode Island and I think is very likely to lose the primary.

[Adam Griffin]

West Virginia - WV-2.  Duh.

Almost certainly it'll be whoever is in WV-3 who gets the short end of the stick, due both to geography and seniority (barring any retirement). This was/will be the logical conclusion of any GOP-dominated coalition in WV government; to divide the state into east and west in order to prevent any potential weakness from popping up in the southern end of the state. This was something that was surely on their radar even before 2016, and with Ojeda's relative success in running in WV-03, it's all but guaranteed now. He's even talked about how there have been backroom discussions on dividing WV this way before he jumped into the race.

McKinley's in Wheeling and Mooney is in Charles Town; cut a line down the middle of the state and neither have to move to run for re-election - and especially if a Democrat holds WV-03 then, it'll all but guarantee their victories.

[DC Al Fine]

Jim Cooper's  district in Nashville is surrounded by three GOP safe seats. That wouldn't be too hard to crack.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Republicans left TN-05 as a Nashville seat because their incumbents did not want to deal with seats that were less heavy Republican. I do not see how this would change after 2020.

[Strudelcutie4427]

Im not sure who gets screwed out in this AL map, but this could be a likely map plan