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  TN Vanderbilt/SSRS: Bredesen +1
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Author Topic: TN Vanderbilt/SSRS: Bredesen +1  (Read 3242 times)
TheRocketRaccoon
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« on: October 18, 2018, 07:17:21 am »
« edited: October 18, 2018, 07:46:22 am by TheRocketRaccoon »

https://www.tennessean.com/story/news/politics/tn-elections/2018/10/18/tennessee-senate-poll-phil-bredesen-slim-edge-over-marsha-blackburn-vanderbilt/1675126002/

Phil 44
Marsha 43
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #1 on: October 18, 2018, 07:21:27 am »

Their past polls:

Trump +11
Romney +7
Romney +3

Junk.
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Chief Justice windjammer
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« Reply #2 on: October 18, 2018, 07:25:44 am »

JUNK
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The Invisible Hand (that suicided Jeffrey Epstein)
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« Reply #3 on: October 18, 2018, 07:30:07 am »

Their past polls:

Trump +11
Romney +7
Romney +3

Junk.

When were these polls taken?
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DaWN
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« Reply #4 on: October 18, 2018, 07:32:36 am »

That's a comically high level of undecideds two weeks out
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #5 on: October 18, 2018, 07:38:22 am »

No Blackburn plus 10
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #6 on: October 18, 2018, 07:40:13 am »

So Blackburn probably wins by 10-15 in the end?
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #7 on: October 18, 2018, 07:41:11 am »

Their past polls:

Trump +11
Romney +7
Romney +3

Junk.

When were these polls taken?

The 2016 one was conducted from late September to early October. The national average at the time ranged from Clinton +1 to Clinton +3.

The 2012 ones were taken in February and May. The national average at the time ranged from a tie to Obama +6.

Not that it really matters. Those margins were completely unrealistic for Tennessee during any point of the 2012/2016 campaigns, even right after the pussygrabber tape.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #8 on: October 18, 2018, 07:44:11 am »

#cantjettisonthebredesen
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dfwlibertylover
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« Reply #9 on: October 18, 2018, 07:59:11 am »

Their past polls:

Trump +11
Romney +7
Romney +3

Junk.
Big Difference this time though is that they seem to be working with CNN's pollster, SSRS, to conduct this poll this time, so doesn't that make this almost like a CNN/SSRS poll in a way?
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #10 on: October 18, 2018, 08:04:22 am »

Their past polls:

Trump +11
Romney +7
Romney +3

Junk.
Big Difference this time though is that they seem to be working with CNN's pollster, SSRS, to conduct this poll this time, so doesn't that make this almost like a CNN/SSRS poll in a way?

Good catch, I didn't notice that.

This is actually a decent poll for Bredesen then considering the circumstances, but not really since he was up 5 in their last poll.
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Comrade Funk
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« Reply #11 on: October 18, 2018, 08:04:44 am »

Meh. Need confirmation from a second poll to see if close.
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« Reply #12 on: October 18, 2018, 08:08:48 am »

Meh. Need confirmation from a second poll to see if close.
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TheRocketRaccoon
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« Reply #13 on: October 18, 2018, 08:09:25 am »

Their past polls:

Trump +11
Romney +7
Romney +3

Junk.
Big Difference this time though is that they seem to be working with CNN's pollster, SSRS, to conduct this poll this time, so doesn't that make this almost like a CNN/SSRS poll in a way?

Good catch, I didn't notice that.

This is actually a decent poll for Bredesen then considering the circumstances, but not really since he was up 5 in their last poll.

It's not too bad if there was an actual Kavanaugh senate bump that swung the race towards Blackburn.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #14 on: October 18, 2018, 08:39:19 am »

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wbrocks67
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« Reply #15 on: October 18, 2018, 08:40:29 am »

SSRS had Bredesen +5 about a month ago, so it makes sense that he dropped off a bit. Although that poll was like 50-45, so there is way more undecideds this time.
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Politician
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« Reply #16 on: October 18, 2018, 09:06:35 am »

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Xing
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« Reply #17 on: October 18, 2018, 09:08:23 am »

Sorry, not buying it.
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Zaybay
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« Reply #18 on: October 18, 2018, 09:21:52 am »

Its highly possible that, while Kavanaugh hit hard in ND, TN, and other states, the issue itself has already receded, as can be seen in others states/the GCB. Though I am still in the lean R camp, there is an outside chance of a Bredesen comeback, though I personally think its highly unlikely.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #19 on: October 18, 2018, 10:19:07 am »

That Blackburn woman simply can't shake off the Phil ...
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Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #20 on: October 18, 2018, 10:26:10 am »

13% undecided at this point is silly. Junk.
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Temporarily Embarrassed Millionaire
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« Reply #21 on: October 18, 2018, 10:36:14 am »

Its highly possible that, while Kavanaugh hit hard in ND, TN, and other states, the issue itself has already receded, as can be seen in others states/the GCB. Though I am still in the lean R camp, there is an outside chance of a Bredesen comeback, though I personally think its highly unlikely.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #22 on: October 18, 2018, 10:36:16 am »

Polls showing Blackburn with a 10 plus lead weren't accurate
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Speaker YE
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« Reply #23 on: October 18, 2018, 10:37:21 am »

Polls showing Blackburn with a 10 plus lead weren't accurate

No. It's this poll that is not accurate.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #24 on: October 18, 2018, 11:56:34 am »

I believe they are using a different firm than they did in the past.
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