2024 Election Game - IC

[OBD]

I'm going to attempt to do one of these. I have never done this before so if you guys could help me I would appreciate it greatly

Prologue
The 2018 elections were a fairly Democratic set of elections, with Democrats taking control of the House (gaining 42 seats) and tying control of the Senate (picking up Nevada and Arizona, while losing North Dakota). They also came close to gaining a majority in governorships, stifled only by upset victories by Scott Walker and Allen Fung.

2018 Governorships

Democrats 25 (+9)
Republicans 25 (-8)

The 2020 Democratic Primaries were extremely competitive with a wide field of candidates. However, by the Iowa caucus the field had narrowed to three frontrunners: New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, and Former VP Joe Biden. Bernie Sanders, representing a united progressive faction within the Democratic Party, capitalized on the establishment split to take the nomination with relative ease, with 60% of the delegates. He selected Oregon Senator Jeff Merkley as his running mate. On the Republican side, President Trump faced little major primary opposition, but was still burdened by approvals stuck in the upper 30s. Up until October, a Sanders victory appeared likely, however on October 2 he suffered from a stroke while on the campaign trail. For the next two weeks, he stayed in the race before dropping off the ticket due to further health concerns. Mass confusion ensued, with Sanders’s name stuck on the ballots, and the unprecedented nature of this event. Merkley was officially elevated to the Presidential slot and Kirsten Gillibrand was appointed his running mate. Despite the national climate remaining favorable to Democrats, voter confusion tipped the election to Trump, who won 270-268 (losing PA and WI from 2016). Downballot, however, Democrats made significant gains. While they did indeed lose the Montana governorship, they gained a shocking 9 Senate seats (and managed to save Doug Jones), erasing their losses from 2014 and nearly securing a supermajority. They also gained 14 seats in the House, bringing their seat count to 249.

2020 Presidential Election

Donald Trump / Mike Pence 270 EVs 47.1%
Jeff Merkley / Kirsten Gillibrand 268 EVs 49.0%

2019/20/21 Governorships

Democrats 25
Republicans 25

The first half of Trump’s second term was fraught with controversy, most notably relating to the Supreme Court. In 2021, Justice Clarence Thomas retired and Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg died, leaving two vacancies. Trump appointed Amy Coney Barrett and Raymond Kethledge to the high court, but these nominees were blocked by the Democratic Senate, who were determined to get revenge for Gorsuch and Kavanaugh. This impasse crippled the court and the popularity of the President and Congress tumbled. This pattern continued on legislative fronts, with Trump being unable to get his agenda through the Democratic congress, and refused to consider Democratic bills on immigration and healthcare. In 2022, the six-year itch combined with anger at Trump and redistricting led to major Democratic gains in both houses (32 House seats and 9 Senate seats), putting Democrats in a dominating position, and likely to win 2024. In early 2023, they nearly pushed a single-payer healthcare bill over Trump’s veto, energizing the progressive base but leading to a slight erosion in support among independents.  

2022 Governorships

Democrats 32 (+7)
Republicans 18 (-7)

But then Chuck Schumer and Tim Ryan commited an unforced error. Frustrated with Trump’s obstructionism, they gave the President an ultmatium: confirm Merrick Garland and another liberal justice to the Supreme Court, or face impeachment. When Trump refused, Congress charged him with multiple gross misdemeanors, and the House impeached him 234-201 with 47 Democrats voting with Republicans against the charges. In the Senate, Democrats theoretically had one more vote than needed to impeach Trump, but defections from multiple red-state Democrats (plus Oregon senator Kurt Schrader) sunk the effort. The American people, Republicans and Independents in particular, were shocked by this blatant attempt at a power grab, and suddenly Republicans had a chance in 2024 again, holding tenous leads in both generic ballots at press time. The fields for both parties are wide open. Republican candidates will need to give the American public a reason to elect them for another 4 years in the White House, while Democratic candidates will need to separate themselves sufficiently from ImpeachmentGate while also appealing to the progressive base.

Trump Approval
Disapprove 51%
Approve 44%

Congress Approval
Disapprove 70%
Approve 19%

Presidential Generic Ballot
Republicans 45%
Democrats 44%

Congress Generic Ballot
Republicans 46%
Democrats 43%

Candidate lists are in no particular order

Declared Republican Candidates
Senator Bill Haslam (R-TN) - New Tennessean Politician
Governor Josh Hawley (R-MO) - NOTTYLER
Fmr. Governor Jon Huntsman (R-UT) - katman46
Governor Phil Scott (R-VT) - KaiserDave
Congressman Justin Amash (R-MI) - NMR
Conservative Commentator Ben Shapiro (R-CA) - x-guy
Fmr. Un Ambassador Nikki Haley (R-SC) - jakobisgood

Potential Republican Candidates
Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN)
Sec. of State Mike Pompeo (R-KS)
Governor Tom Cotton (R-AR)
Governor Josh Hawley (R-MO)
Fmr. UN Ambassador Nikki Haley (R-SC)
Governor Charlie Baker (R-MA)
Fmr. Governor Larry Hogan (R-MD)
Congressman Steve Scalise (R-LA)
Congressman Justin Amash (R-MI)
Senator Rand Paul (R-KY)
Senator Ben Sasse (R-NE)
Senator Lisa Murkowski (R-AK)
Congressman Steve King (R-IA)
Fmr. Governor Chris Sununu (R-NH)
Fmr. Senator Rob Portman (R-OH)
Fmr. Governor Jon Huntsman (R-UT)
Fmr. Governor John Kasich (R-OH)
Conservative Commentator Ben Shapiro (R-CA)
among others

Declared Democratic Candidates
Governor Andrew Gillum (D-FL) - JacksonHitchcock
Congressman Scott Rolen (D-MO) - Jaguar4life
Senator Chris Murphy (D-CT) - Sherrod Brown 2020
Senator Alison Lundergan Grimes (D-KY) - McGinty
Senator and 2020 Vice Presidential Candidate Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) - AdamEvans
Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA) - Mycool

Potential Democratic Candidates
Senator Pete Buttigieg (D-IN)
Senator Steve Bullock (D-MT)
Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV)
Senator Jason Kander (D-MO)
Fmr. Senator and Presidential candidate Jeff Merkley (D-OR)
Congresswomen Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI)
Congressman Conor Lamb (D-PA)
Governor Richard Cordray (D-OH)
Senator Susan Rice (D-ME)
Senator and 2020 Vice Presidential candidate Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY)
Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA)
Governor Gavin Newsom (D-CA)
Governor Andrew Gillum (D-FL)
Fmr. Governor Ralph Northam (D-VA)
Senator Tim Kaine (D-VA)
Senator Tim Ashe (D-VT)
Congressman Jared Golden (D-ME)
Fmr. Governor Martin O´Malley (D-MD)
Senator Krysten Sinema (D-AZ)
Senator Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV)
Fmr. Governor Tom Wolf (D-PA)
Senator Amy Kloubuchar (D-MN)
Senator Sally Yates (D-GA)
Governor Roy Cooper (D-NC)
Governor Julian Castro (D-TX)
Governor Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY)
Governor Fred Hubbell (D-IA)
among others

Declared Other Candidates
Director of Neo-Sage and Activist Larry Sharpe (L-NY)

Rules
I have never done one of these before, so I’m going to rely a lot on crowd feedback and ideas. That said, I will base the rules off of similar rules from previous games (thanks Lumine, wxtransit, HCP, and New Tennessean Politican for said rules).

This game will cover the 2024 US Presidential Election from September 1st, 2023 to November 5th, 2024, divided into three main phases:

Primary Phase: Assuming campaign announcements to have come earlier in the year, this primary season will take us from September 2023 to June 2024, with players from the Democratic and Republican Parties fighting to emerge as the frontrunner or even the nominee of their respective parties. As candidates will have entered by September, they will have been assumed to have entered earlier in the year.

Convention Phase: Both main parties will enter this phase to decide on their eventual nominee, although the gameplay will be very limited if a player has already won his respective nomination. Should a party lack a clear nominee, players will be allowed to control their delegates and have them vote for a preferred candidate, with some exceptions to be decided by the moderator (me and possibly others)

General Election Phase: Taking us from September 1st to November 5th, 2024, with eight turns of a week to account for the final stage of the campaign as players play the Presidential and Vice-Presidential candidates, and potentially some key surrogates for their campaigns.

2.- The in-game length of turns will vary from days to an entire month depending on the circumstances, but all turns will last one week (from calendar Saturday to Saturday, no more) in RL. Duly informing of a turn absence will yield no penalty (a polling freeze or very limited loss), but simply not posting will bring consequences. Due to the quirks of my schuedle I may be unable to post turns at busy parts of my year, please bear with me.

3.- Personal message me for endorsements! No candidate may recieve more than 2 per turn, and there are some special endorsements that will be reserved for key events or dates (for example, New Hampshire or Iowa Governors, or relevant newspapers like the Des Moines Register or the New Hampshire Union Leader). Exceptions if the candidate is from Iowa or New Hampshire.

4.- There will be debates, several of them to account for the OTL high number of GOP debates and their undeniable impact on the race. The first few turns will all feature limited debates. I’m unsure quite how to do this, I will appreciate crowdsourcing ideas here.

5.- Like other games, I will use a number randomizer to determine positive and negative news for the candidates. 1-5 will be positive experiences (1 being great news) and 95-100 will be negative experiences (100 being terrible news). 6-94 will be no news. Real life news will also feature as part of the game for players to exploit (or influence).

6.- Third Party candidates are allowed to join, but their respective gameplay will be focused on the General Election. There will be exceptions on a case-by-case basis, for example if two major Libertarian candidates are facing off in a primary.

7 - If your candidate is not included in the provided list below, make a request on the sign-up board. Please make your candidates realistic (I’m going to be pretty flexible with this) .

8. Have fun.

I have copies of the maps for the 2018 House and 2018, 2020, 2022 Senate races, I will post them on request.


Primary Schedule
January 30
Iowa
February 6
Oklahoma
New Hampshire
February 13
South Carolina
February 20
Nevada
February 27
Alabama
March 5 (Super Tuesday)
Oregon
Missouri
Tennessee
Nebraska
Virginia
Washington
Idaho
California
Illinois
Montana
Colorado
March 9
West Virginia
Arizona
South Dakota
Kansas
March 10
Puerto Rico
March 12
North Dakota
Texas
Hawaii
Alaska
March 14
US Virgin Islands
March 16
District of Columbia
Guam
March 19 (Super Tuesday II)
North Carolina
Ohio
New Mexico
Vermont
Kentucky
Northern Mariana Islands
March 26
Indiana
Florida
American Samoa
April 9 (ACELA)
Connecticut
Delaware
Pennslyvania
Rhode Island
Maryland
April 23
Maine
April 30
Michigan
May 7
Wisconsin
May 14
New Jersey
Minnesota
May 21
Utah
May 28
Mississippi
June 11
Arkansas
New York
Georgia
Wyoming
Massachusetts
Louisiana

[OBD]

For endorsements, I will begin updating this space with current Senators and Governors.

Alabama
Governor Will Ainsworth (R)
Senior Senator Doug Jones (D)
Junior Senator Martha Roby (R)

Alaska
Governor Ethan Berkowitz (D)
Senior Senator Lisa Murkowski (R)
Junior Senator Dan Sullivan (R)

Arizona
Governor Mark Kelly (D)
Senior Senator Krysten Sinema (D)
Junior Senator Ruben Gallego (D)

Arkansas
Governor Tom Cotton (R)
Senior Senator John Boozman (D)
Junior Senator Mike Beebe (D)

California
Governor Gavin Newsom (D)
Senior Senator Dianne Feinstein (D)
Junior Senator Kamala Harris (D)

Colorado
Governor Jared Polis (D)
Senior Senator Michael Bennet (D)
Junior Senator John Hickenlooper (D)

Connecticut
Governor Ned Lamont (D)
Senior Senator Richard Blumenthal (D)
Junior Senator Chris Murphy (D)

Connecticut
Governor Ned Lamont (D)
Senior Senator Richard Blumenthal (D)
Junior Senator Chris Murphy (D)

Connecticut
Governor Ned Lamont (D)
Senior Senator Richard Blumenthal (D)
Junior Senator Chris Murphy (D)

Connecticut
Governor Ned Lamont (D)
Senior Senator Richard Blumenthal (D)
Junior Senator Chris Murphy (D)

Delaware
Governor TBD (D)
Senior Senator Tom Carper (D)
Junior Senator Chris Coons (D)

Florida
Governor Andrew Gillum (D)
Senior Senator Bill Nelson (D)
Junior Senator Stephanie Murphy (D)

Georgia
Governor Stacey Abrahms(D)
Senior Senator Sally Yates (D)
Junior Senator TBD (D)

Hawaii
Governor TBD (D)
Senior Senator Brian Schatz(D)
Junior Senator Mazie Hirono (D)

Idaho
Governor TBD (R)
Senior Senator Mike Crapo (R)
Junior Senator JIm Risch (R)

Illinois
Governor J.B Pritzker (D)
Senior Senator Dick Durbin (D)
Junior Senator Tammy Duckworth (D)

Indiana
Governor Eric Holcomb (R)
Senior Senator Joe Donnelly (D)
Junior Senator Pete Buttigieg (D)

Iowa
Governor Fred Hubbell(D)
Senior Senator Abby Finkenauer (D)
Junior Senator to be filled by 2023 Special Election (Joni Ernst (R) vs. Cindy Axne (D)) (replacing Tom Vilsack (D) (deceased))

Kansas
Governor Laura Kelly(D)
Senior Senator Jerry Moran (R)
Junior Senator TBD (R)

Kentucky
Governor Matt Bevin (R)
Senior Senator Rand Paul (R)
Junior Senator Alison Lundergan Grimes (D)

Louisiana
Governor John Bel Edwards (D)
Senior Senator Bill Cassidy (R)
Junior Senator John Neely Kennedy (R)

Maine
Governor TBD (D)
Senior Senator Angus King (I-D)
Junior Senator Susan Rice (D)

Maryland
Governor TBD (D)
Senior Senator Ben Cardin (D)
Junior Senator Chris Van Hollen (D)

Massachusetts
Governor Charlie Baker (R)
Senior Senator Elizabeth Warren (D)
Junior Senator Ed Markey (D)

[OBD]

ANNOUNCEMENT
The first turn is now open. It will last in game-time from September 1 to September 15, 2023. The turn will close 12:00 AM CST Thursday October 25 and I expect to release a news post on Friday the 26th. This game remains open for new players and I will grant extensions for anyone who joins late free of polling penalty, until in-game October 1. After in-game November 1 no more candidate sign-ups will be permitted. Thanks for participating!
Endorsements will not be allowed for the first turn except for home-state politicians not on the potential candidates list. This is to accommodate anyone who decides to join in the meantime.

[OBD]

Here are Republican polls, Democratic polls will be up soon. As VP and probably most prestigious Republican, Mike Pence is in the polls and holds a lead. If there is no Pence player he will decline to run and his blurb will disappear.

National Polls - Republicans
Undecided/Other 24%
Mike Pence (R-IN) 17%
Ben Shapiro (R-CA) 13%
Nikki Haley (R-SC) 12%
Bill Haslam (R-TN) 9%
Josh Hawley (R-MO) 9%
Phil Scott (R-VT) 6%
Jon Huntsman (R-UT) 6%
Justin Amash (R-MI) 4%'

Iowa Polls - Republicans
Undecided/Other 24%
Mike Pence (R-IN) 14%
Josh Hawley (R-MO) 13%
Ben Shapiro (R-CA) 13%
Bill Haslam (R-TN) 11%
Nikki Haley (R-SC) 10%
Justin Amash (R-MI) 6%
Phil Scott (R-VT) 6%
Jon Huntsman (R-UT) 3%

Oklahoma Polls - Republicans
Undecided/Other 24%
Ben Shapiro (R-CA) 16%
Mike Pence (R-IN) 15%
Bill Haslam (R-TN) 13%
Nikki Haley (R-SC) 12%
Josh Hawley (R-MO) 9%
Jon Huntsman (R-UT) 7%
Justin Amash (R-MI) 3%
Phil Scott (R-VT) 2%

New Hampshire Polls - Republicans
Undecided/Other 24%
Mike Pence (R-IN) 17%
Phil Scott (R-VT) 14%
Ben Shapiro (R-CA) 12%
Jon Huntsman (R-UT) 12%
Nikki Haley (R-SC) 10%
Bill Haslam (R-TN) 9%
Justin Amash (R-MI) 6%
Josh Hawley (R-MO) 5%

South Carolina Polls - Republicans
Undecided/Other 24%
Nikki Haley (R-SC) 21%
Mike Pence (R-IN) 16%
Bill Haslam (R-TN) 12%
Ben Shapiro (R-CA) 12%
Jon Huntsman (R-UT) 9%
Josh Hawley (R-MO) 8%
Justin Amash (R-MI) 4%
Phil Scott (R-VT) 3%

Nevada Polls - Republicans
Undecided/Other 24%
Mike Pence (R-IN) 17%
Ben Shapiro (R-CA) 14%
Jon Huntsman (R-UT) 14%
Nikki Haley (R-SC) 12%
Bill Haslam (R-TN) 10%
Josh Hawley (R-MO) 9%
Phil Scott (R-VT) 5%
Justin Amash (R-MI) 4%

Alabama Polls - Republicans
Undecided/Other 24%
Bill Haslam (R-TN) 15%
Mike Pence (R-IN) 15%
Ben Shapiro (R-CA) 14%
Nikki Haley (R-SC) 12%
Josh Hawley (R-MO) 7%
Jon Huntsman (R-UT) 7%
Justin Amash (R-MI) 4%
Phil Scott (R-VT) 2%

Analysis
The Republican primary field is wide, and lacks a clear frontrunner, the perfect combo for a dramatic primary season. The main thing to watch for is: will Mike Pence run? As incumbent Vice President, he is in a powerful position should he choose to throw his hat in the ring, due to high name recognition and the ability to build a formidable fundraising machine, and will become an early favorite. However, he does have strong competition. Conservative commentator Ben Shapiro rose to prominence during the Impeachmentgate scandals and the WarrenCare (single-payer) Act nearly passing over Trump’s veto. He has the best name recognition despite not holding elected office. Nikki Haley is another strong candidate, a previous South Carolina Governor and UN ambassador, but some may argue her time has passed. Behind them, things become less clear. Senators Bill Haslam and Josh Hawley are solidly in the middle of the pack. Both are well-known and liked in their states, but they don’t have a true national brand. Trailing are Phil Scott, Justin Amash, and Jon Huntsman. For them to come back and win the nomination, they need to increase national name recognition. Scott is perhaps in the best position to do this, as he is in second in New Hampshire, while the others have more ground to make up across the board. Remember, anything is possible at this point, with the debates coming up soon.

[OBD]

ANNOUNCEMENT
To make it very clear, only in-state endorsements are allowed for Turn 1. This is due to the possibility of new candidates entering.

[OBD]

National Polls - Democrats
Undecided/Other 28%
Jeff Merkley (D-OR) 26%
Scott Rolen (D-MO) 14%
Andrew Gillum (D-FL) 13%
Chris Murphy (D-CT) 10%
Stacey Abrams (D-GA) 9%

Iowa Polls - Democrats
Undecided/Other 28%
Jeff Merkley (D-OR) 23%
Scott Rolen (D-MO) 17%
Andrew Gillum (D-FL) 13%
Chris Murphy (D-CT) 11%
Stacey Abrams (D-GA) 8%

Oklahoma Polls - Democrats
Undecided/Other 28%
Jeff Merkley (D-OR) 21%
Scott Rolen (D-MO) 17%
Chris Murphy (D-CT) 13%
Andrew Gillum (D-FL) 13%
Stacey Abrams (D-GA) 8%

New Hampshire Polls - Democrats
Undecided/Other 28%
Jeff Merkley (D-OR) 28%
Chris Murphy (D-CT) 15%
Scott Rolen (D-MO) 11%
Andrew Gillum (D-FL) 11%
Stacey Abrams (D-GA) 7%

South Carolina Polls - Democrats
Undecided/Other 28%
Jeff Merkley (D-OR) 19%
Stacey Abrams (D-GA) 15%
Scott Rolen (D-MO) 15%
Andrew Gillum (D-FL) 14%
Chris Murphy (D-CT) 9%

Nevada Polls - Democrats
Undecided/Other 28%
Jeff Merkley (D-OR) 32%
Scott Rolen (D-MO) 12%
Andrew Gillum (D-FL) 11%
Chris Murphy (D-CT) 10%
Stacey Abrams (D-GA) 7%

Alabama Polls - Democrats
Undecided/Other 28%
Jeff Merkley (D-OR) 19%
Andrew Gillum (D-FL) 16%
Scott Rolen (D-MO) 15%
Stacey Abrams (D-GA) 13%
Chris Murphy (D-CT) 9%

The Democratic primaries are slightly less complex, but not much less interesting. 2020 replacement nominee Jeff Merkley clearly leads our early polls, boosted by strong name recognition. The former Oregon senator holds leads in every early primary state, though his strengths vary across them (weaker in the South, stronger in the West and Northeast). However, Merkley’s polls could begin slipping as his opponents have significant material to attack him with (prominent role in Impeachmentgate as policy adviser, loss to Trump in 2020, hasn’t held elected office since January 2021, etc.). Governor Andrew Gillum of Florida was originally seen as the clear #2 in the Democratic primaries, however with the entry of fellow progressive Southern African-American Governor Stacey Abrahms, his path to the nomination has been significantly complicated. Former MLB player Scott Rolen has taken advantage of the three-way progressive split to emerge as the leading candidate of the more centrist wing of the Democrats, despite relative inexperience. However, his candidacy could be crippled by the entry of a more experienced center-left Democrat (eg. New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, Montana Senator Steve Bullock, West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin), and in any case the progessive wing is now firmly in command of the party. Lastly, lesser-known Senator Chris Murphy has been behind in polls, but his candidacy has much potential if he can increase his name recognition and usurp Rolen as the preferred establishment candidate.

[OBD]

News, September 1

Tick Tock
In a somewhat surprising move, the Doomsday Clock was moved from 11:58.30 to 11:59, the closest to Doomsday is had been since it’s creation. The operators of the clock provided the following justification for their decision.
“Unlike in the Cold War, no one crisis caused the clock to shift towards midnight. Rather, numerous events since 2016 have contributed to the shift. Firstly, let’s look at American politics. Ever since the election of Donald Trump seven years ago, tensions here have radically increased, most recently manifesting themselves in the Impeachmentgate crisis of 6 months ago. Congress and the President have been at an impasse, with no major legislation having been passed since the bipartisan 2021 Tax Cuts (which only passed by 1 vote). In the event of a global crisis, if this worrying trend continues the world’s greatest power will be crippled by internal dissent and record levels of partisanship. Secondly, let’s look at East Asia. Ever since 2018, the trade war between the United States and China has been escalating slowly. While neither nation has taken action since 2022 on this, threats have been exchanged and the relations between the superpowers have deteiorated significantly. This is an extremely pressing issue especially in the light of renewed tensions in the Korean Peninsula. The Treaty of Singapore in 2019 theoretically ended the Korean War and provided provisions for denuclearization, but earlier this year reports emerged that Kim Jong Un had ordered nuclear testing to resume, and had requested Chinese premier Xi Jinping for nuclear weapons to place at Kaesong. Reasons for this are unclear, though it could either be desire to align with traditional ally China, the admission of South Korea and Japan to NATO (now renamed WTO, World Treaty Organization) in 2021, and/or political pressure from China.  Thirdly, let’s look at Eastern Europe. Ever since 2014, Russia has been slowly encroaching on Ukraine, first annexing Crimea, then most recently the provinces of Luhansk and Donetesk, in 2022, and also engineering unification with Belarus in 2021. To combat this, Ukraine has applied to join WTO. Should Ukraine be accepted, it would significantly increase tension with Russia. The Middle East remains chaotic, though it has been surpassed in importance by crisis elsewhere. Saudi Arabia remains a stedfast ally of the United States despite alleged human rights violations, and the authortarian Iranian regime remains an issue. Bashar-al-Assad’s forces emerged victorious in 2021, meaning that while there isn’t any war in the Middle East for the first time in 10 years, it remains a powder keg due to inevitable conflicts in interest. Combining all these events together, it appears alarmingly likely that a major war could break out sometime in the next 5 years, and that if a war starts it could snowball quickly due to Russia and China’s mutual dislike of the US and WTO. Therefore, we have decided to shift the Doomsday Clock to one minute before midnight.”

Supreme Court deadlock continues
Despite numerous attempts to mediate by both sides, the Supreme Court crisis of the past two years remains unresolved. In the wake of Impeachmentgate and rapidly falling Democratic poll numbers, Chuck Schumer proposed a compromise with President Trump: An undisclosed liberal justice and a moderate-to-conservative justice like Thomas Hardiman be nominated and confirmed, which would restore the court to it’s ideological position in 2017. However, a still angry President Trump turned down his offer, demanding that Coney Barret and Kethledge be confirmed immediately. After another two months of deadlock, President Trump proposed his own compromise: Merrick Garland and an undisclosed conservative justice would be nominated, which would in practice shift the court considerably to the right by replacing Ginsburg with a center-left moderate. Schumer declined the offer. In August, a bipartisan group of senators (Joe Manchin, Mike Beebe, Doug Jones, Lisa Murkowski, Mitt Romney, and Shelley Moore Capito) proposed a compromise: a liberal justice and conservative justice would be nominated and confirmed, maintaining the balance of the court. Trump agreed to this deal, however Schumer came out against it, meaning Trump didn’t nominate the justices for fear of the liberal justice getting confirmed and the conservative justice failing in the heavilly Democratic Senate. Rumor has it that the group of senators are drafting another solution to the crisis, but at least for now it shows no sign of resolving amid a historic divide between President and Congress.

It’s election season? The elections of 2023
While most elections occur in even-numbered years, the odd-number years aren’t entirely devoid of American elections. This November, there are 4 marquee races. Firstly is the Special Election for Iowa Senate, where Rep. Cindy Axne is facing off against Fmr. Senator Joni Ernst to fill the late Tom Vilsack’s seat. Ernst has a modest lead in that race, leading by 4-5 points in the RCP Polling Average. Secondly is the Mississippi Gubernatorial Election. Governor Jim Hood is quite popular in the Magnolia State, but his party registration is dragging him down in a state that is very favorable to Republicans currently. His race against Phillip Gunn is a dead heat. In Louisiana, Governor John Bel Edwards is retiring. The seat is not looking good for Democrats, with their best recruit being Mayor Mitch Landrieu, who is not as well liked as Edwards. The GOP opposition also looks strong, with AG Jeff Landry leading the pack. However, the presence of David Duke could mess things up for Republicans, so most pundits rate this one Likely Republican Pickup. Lastly, Jeanne Hampton is running to succeed Republican Governor Matt Bevin of Kentucky, but faces strong opposition from 2019 candidate Andy Beshear. Hampton is holding a modest lead due to Kentucky’s political lean and Impeachmentgate dragging down Democrats, but Beshear is a good candidate and could very well come back.
Ratings
Iowa Senate: Leans Republican Pickup
Mississippi Gubernatorial: Toss-up
Louisiana Gubernatorial: Likely Republican Pickup
Kentucky Gubernatorial: Leans Republican

On the Campaign Trail: Chaos in the Democratic Primary
Up until this point, Fmr. Senator Jeff Merkley had been seen as the frontrunner for the nomination. But in a shocking announcement, he declined to run for President. Further shaking up the field were Kamala Harris and Kirsten Gillibrand throwing their hats in the ring. Both are very influential in the Senate and ran in 2020 meaning they are powerful contenders. But they could compete with each other, Scott Rolen, and Chris Murphy for votes. While this is bad news for the latter two contenders, it’s a massive boon to Governors Gillum and Abrahms, who are no longer splitting the progressive vote with Merkley. We’ll have a better idea of the situation when polls are released for the September 15 cycle.

[OBD]

Democratic Primary Poll

National Polls - Democrats
Undecided 26%
Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) 18%
Andrew Gillum (D-FL) 16%
Kamala Harris (D-CA) 13%
Stacey Abrams (D-GA) 11%
Scott Rolen (D-MO) 10%
Chris Murphy (D-CT) 6%

Iowa Polls - Democrats
Undecided 26%
Andrew Gillum (D-FL) 17%
Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) 16%
Scott Rolen (D-MO) 14%
Kamala Harris (D-CA) 11%
Stacey Abrams (D-GA) 11%
Chris Murphy (D-CT) 5%

Oklahoma Polls - Democrats
Undecided 26%
Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) 21%
Kamala Harris (D-CA) 16%
Scott Rolen (D-MO) 13%
Andrew Gillum (D-FL) 12%
Stacey Abrams (D-GA) 6%
Chris Murphy (D-CT) 6%

New Hampshire Polls - Democrats
Undecided 26%
Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) 20%
Kamala Harris (D-CA) 15%
Andrew Gillum (D-FL) 13%
Chris Murphy (D-CT) 10%
Scott Rolen (D-MO) 8%
Stacey Abrams (D-GA) 8%

South Carolina Polls - Democrats
Undecided 26%
Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) 19%
Andrew Gillum (D-FL) 14%
Kamala Harris (D-CA) 14%
Stacey Abrams (D-GA) 12%
Scott Rolen (D-MO) 11%
Chris Murphy (D-CT) 4%

Nevada Polls - Democrats
Undecided 26%
Kamala Harris (D-CA) 23%
Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) 18%
Scott Rolen (D-MO) 11%
Andrew Gillum (D-FL) 10%
Stacey Abrams (D-GA) 6%
Chris Murphy (D-CT) 6%

Alabama Polls - Democrats
Undecided 26%
Andrew Gillum (D-FL) 19%
Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) 17%
Kamala Harris (D-CA) 12%
Stacey Abrams (D-GA) 12%
Scott Rolen (D-MO) 10%
Chris Murphy (D-CT) 4%

[OBD]

ANNOUNCEMENT
With Debate results posted, the turn can end as soon as everyone posts their schedules. Waiting on the following people:

Democrats
Kirsten Gillibrand
Kamala Harris
Scott Rolen (unless you just campaign in Missouri and Iowa, but still say how you distribute your time)
Chris Murphy

Republicans
Justin Amash
Ben Shapiro
Nikki Haley

Thank you for participating. Polls for the next turn will be released soon.

[OBD]

Trouble in Vermont? LG Zuckerman accused of misusing government funds
In a surprising turn for Vermont, Lieutendant Governor Dave Zuckerman was indicted by the FBI for misusing government funds to finance his 2024 gubernatorial bid (to succeed term-limited Phil Scott (R), who is running for President). In a report which content has not been fully released, the investigation found that Zuckerburg had channelled money on multiple occasions, starting in 2022, when there was some speculation he would challenge Scott for governor, but ultimately declined.
Zuckerman has denied the charges, calling them ‘politically-motivated indictments by the Trump administration’. While Democratic officials have been mostly quiet on this, Republican officials have called for Zuckerman to step down. President Trump weighted in on Twitter:
Trump tweet: “Creepy Dave Zuckerman used taxpayer money to fund Governor bid! FBI officials also found large stashes of weed in his office. Democrats think this is okay. Creepy Dave must resign now!  #4moreyears #Republicans2024”
We have been unable to verify Trump’s claim of hidden weed in Zuckerman’s office, however, these allegations are certainly damaging. While Zuckerman’s 2024 plans are clearly scuppled, the impact on Governor Phil Scott’s presidential bid is less certain. Half of Republican voters believe Trump’s weed claims, and since this alledgedly occured under Scott’s nose it certainly won’t help him. A disappointing development given Scott’s strong performance in the debate this week.

Amash recieves high-profile praise for debate performance
Despite being a little-known representative from Michigan, Justin Amash had a strong debate performance, breaking out from relative obscurity. And Republican giants took notice. Vice President Pence, who is reportedly leaning against a presidential run, praised Amash on Twitter, for a “strong performance”, going as far to say that “Amash, along with Bill Haslam, were the winners of the debate”. Amash also earned recognition from Senate candidate Joni Ernst in Iowa, and on Sean Hannity’s Fox News show. Ernst, who came close to endorsing him at a Des Moines rally, which will surely provide a much-needed boost in the first state to hold primaries. Fox News, as the preferred conservative news channel, also holds clout for Republican primary voters.

Senate ‘Gang of Six’ proposes second solution to Supreme Court crisis
In a floor speech today, Senator Doug Jones (D-AL) proposed a second solution to the Supreme Court crisis, which was drafted by the moderate-leaning ‘Gang of Six’ consisting of Jones, Joe Manchin, Mike Beebe, Lisa Murkowski, Mitt Romney, and Shelley Moore Capito. The solution would entail nominating Merrick Garland and Thomas Hardiman to the high court, both of whom were more moderate-leaning than some other proposed appointees. Jones emphasized that with Justice Breyer reportedly considering retirement, the importance of filling the vacancies and that the moderate plan would maintain the current court balance, but with two moderate judges there would be more flexibility on the court.
Initial reactions to the plan from the general public have been enthusiastic, as Americans wish to see the issue resolved (57% approve of the plan, according to a Gallup poll, and 82% of Independents approve). However, the more liberal and conservative wings of the Democrats and the Republicans, respectively, have reservations about the plan. Conservative Republicans want two conservative justices, while liberal Democrats want two liberal justices, and neither of these groups is very interested in compromise. Majority Leader Schumer, Minority Leader Thune, and President Trump have yet to publically react to the proposal, though sources close to Trump say that the President is lukewarm about the plan, fearing that Hardiman would be a liberal ‘stealth justice’. Reports also indicate that Schumer wants to wait until 2024, when 2 liberal justices could be confirmed with the assistance of a Democratic president, but it is unclear if he is willing to risk public backlash to continue delaying the process.

New Polls for 2023 Elections
With November slowly approaching, campaigning for the 2023 off-year elections has intensified, particularly in Iowa. Some new polls have been released. A NYT/Siena poll showed Joni Ernst leading 50%-44%, a solid result for the former Senator. However, a Monmouth poll released days later showed Ernst with a lead of 1 (46%-45%). Mississippi also got polled, with Gravis Marketing showing Phillip Gunn leading 49% to 43%, but a DCCC poll showed Hood with a 1 point lead. Neither of these pollsters are particularly known for accuracy, but the race is looking slightly more favorable to Gunn than two weeks ago. NYT/Siena also polled Kentucky, showing a tie between Beshear and Hampton, a very good result for Democrats. Of course, it’s just one poll. Lastly, Mitch Landrieu is in a dreadful position to succeed John Bel Edwards. 4 polls of varying repute show Landry at or near the 50% threshold, and Landry with a solid advantage in the runoff. Pundits have generally concurred that Kentucky’s race is now a tossup, while Louisiana’s is Solid Republican Pickup.

Draft Kirsten for Senate? Bad sign for Gillibrand in New York
In an interesting turn of events, 7,500 New York Democrats signed a petition for Presidential candidate Kirsten Gillibrand to drop out and return to the Senate. Their website, DraftKirstenSenate.com, states that Gillibrand’s exit complicates the Democrats’ path to holding the seat due to Fmr. Rep. Elise Stefanik (who lost narrowly in the state’s 2022 Gubernatorial election) entering the race and the possibility that Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, New York’s moderately unpopular governor, may enter the race and lose the seat. The group has pledged to vote for one of Gillibrand’s opponents in the New York primary if she fails to comply, most likely Kamala Harris or Andrew Gillum. While this group may not have a significant impact on the result, they could give delegates to Gillibrand’s opponents and dampen the home-state boost she would get on the last primary date before the convention.

On the Campaign Trail: Crisscrossing the Nation
With about a year until the general election and 4 months until the Iowa caucus, candidates from both parties have begun campaigning in earnest. Let’s take a look at where they’ve been going.

Jon Huntsman (R-UT)
Mr. Huntsman, a former Utah governor, ran before in 2012, where he faltered after failing to win New Hampshire. This time around, he has put much emphasis on the state, spending the majority of his time there while also campaigning a bit in Utah and Nevada. While New Hampshire is a good state for him to focus on, he must compete with Phil Scott there, who has a neighboring state advantage. It appears at this juncture that New Hampshire will eliminate either Huntsman or Scott.

Phil Scott (R-VT)
As mentioned earlier, Scott has been putting emphasis on New Hampshire, spending much of his time there and in neighboring Vermont. However, he also spent time doing set-up operations and appearing on Meet the Press. New Hampshire looks by far Scott’s most important, even more so than Huntsman (who at least has Nevada to fall back on), so expect him to focus on there. Also look for Scott to begin gaining momentum. His good 2 weeks was spoiled by the Zuckerman news, but if he can dodge that and keep up the pace/debate performances, his polls will tick up and up.

Bill Haslam (R-TN)
The junior Senator and former Governor of Tennessee had a good 2 weeks in media coverage, mostly due to a solid debate performance. In terms of campaigning, his focus was on Iowa, a state that would be a major win for him, and Alabama, a state where he holds a narrow lead over Shapiro and is tied with Pence (last turn’s polls). Haslam is overall in a much better position than Huntsman and Scott, and has a real chance to become the frontrunner by 2019.

Josh Hawley (R-MO)
Governor Hawley didn’t perform extremely well at the debate, but still is in the fight due to strong polling in Iowa. It thus made sense that he would campaign in Iowa, while he also had events in Oklahoma and South Carolina. While Hawley is nowhere near out in the latter two states, he lags the frontrunners significantly, meaning his campaigning there may not have been worth it. When polls for this week appear, we will have a better idea of this.

Stacey Abrams (D-GA)
Overshadowed by fellow African-American progressive governor Andrew Gillum, Abrams is looking to burst out of the shadows at next week’s debate. Until then, however, she has campaigned mostly in Oklahoma and Iowa, states where she has a reasonable chance of overtaking the leaders. Her chances hinge on being able to swing undecided and Gillum voters to her at the debate.

Andrew Gillum (D-FL)
The slightly better-known African-American progressive governor is firmly in second place at press time, trailing Gillibrand by 2 points in nationwide polling. Gillum focused on Iowa, conducting a bus tour in the early days of the month, but also campaigned in Southern states like Oklahoma and Alabama (both of which where he leads). He also threw in time to New Hampshire, where he is more of a longshot (9 points behind Gillibrand and 4 behind Harris).
Scott Rolen (D-MO)
Rolen’s campaign schedule was...unconventional. Instead of focusing on the early primary states, he barnstormed Missouri and Kentucky. It is unclear why he is doing this, possible reasons include that he is trying to secure a base or trying to get an edge before other candidates arrive in force there. Nonetheless, he will likely lose some ground in early primary states, and will need to perform well in next week’s debate the make it up.

Chris Murphy (D-CT)
Murphy put most of his effort into Iowa and New Hampshire, two states where he could use a solid performance. He also put resources into Nevada, where he had 6% of the vote in the latest poll. Murphy is fairly unknown, so this strategy could certainly help his numbers in critical states. The debate will also help his name recognition - if he does well.

Polls will be posted when the last schedules are posted.

[OBD]

Btw the turn is NOT over. I released the news as it isn't sensitive to what people do for the remainder of the turn. The turn closes tonight at 12:00 AM CST

[OBD]

ANNOUNCEMENT
With 1 hour until the deadline for Turn 1, I will begin Turn 2. It will last until next Wednesday at 12:00 AM CST. The Democratic party will have debates this turn. I will continue to accept candidate schedules for Turn 1 until Friday at 12:00 PM CST.

[OBD]

Can I drop out because of the 2020 Game and endorse Kristen Gillibrand

1. Do this on the OOC thread
2. No. The Gillibrand player has gone inactive for the moment. This may change but for now endorse a more active player.

[OBD]

Chris Murphy Withdrawal Speech

"After discussing it with my family and advisors, I have decided to withdraw from the Democratic race and continue to serve in the Senate. I will not be offering an endorsement at this time. Thank you."

RIP.

ANNOUNCEMENT
Polls will be posted TODAY, I PROMISE. Also, if you need an extension do not hesitate to PM me.

[OBD]

Polls can now be found here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1pBwyCq2Na3wZfZ4HIBjpHdOAHCSBfU3JYR6N4_GL0rQ/edit?usp=sharing