What is more likely
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  What is more likely
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Poll
Question: Which is more likely?
#1
Democrats win Kansas and Oklahoma
 
#2
Republicans win Connecticut and Rhode Island
 
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Total Voters: 49

Author Topic: What is more likely  (Read 834 times)
RussFeingoldWasRobbed
Progress96
Junior Chimp
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« on: October 18, 2018, 02:25:30 PM »

Discuss
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #1 on: October 18, 2018, 02:29:59 PM »

Democrats winning Kansas and Oklahoma. Kansas is at least 50/50, I don't see any of the other 3 states flipping.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #2 on: October 18, 2018, 02:32:13 PM »

0% = 0%. Connecticut and Oklahoma are not flipping. But I voted option 1 just because Kansas is far more likely to flip than Rhode Island.
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Politician
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #3 on: October 18, 2018, 02:34:36 PM »

Option 1 (sane). Kansas has about a 50% chance, Oklahoma has a 20% chance, Connecticut has a 10% chance and Rhode Island has a 5% chance.
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MT Treasurer
IndyRep
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« Reply #4 on: October 18, 2018, 02:43:55 PM »

KS - Toss-up
OK - Toss-up (maybe Lean R)

CT - Safe D
RI - Lean D

Tough choice. /s

Option 1, obviously (sane).
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andjey
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #5 on: October 18, 2018, 02:47:14 PM »

KS- Tossup (50/50% chance)
OK- Tossup, (R 51% chance)

CT-Likely D, (D 70% chance)
RI- Lean D, (D 60% chance)

So, option 1
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IceSpear
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« Reply #6 on: October 18, 2018, 02:51:19 PM »

Someone's going to have to explain to me how an R+13 state where every poll is a tie is in the same group as an R+20 state where every poll has the Republican ahead.
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
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« Reply #7 on: October 18, 2018, 03:37:11 PM »

Option 1, easily.

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TML
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« Reply #8 on: October 18, 2018, 05:28:22 PM »

538's governor forecast gives Democrats a greater chance of winning in KS & OK than the Republicans winning in CT & RI, regardless of which of the three models you go by.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #9 on: October 18, 2018, 05:30:33 PM »

1. Democrats win Kansas
2. Republicans win Rhode Island
3. Republicans win Connecticut
4. Democrats win Oklahoma
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Xing
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« Reply #10 on: October 18, 2018, 06:39:55 PM »

Someone's going to have to explain to me how an R+13 state where every poll is a tie is in the same group as an R+20 state where every poll has the Republican ahead.

#CandidateQualityMattersWhenItFitsMyNarrative
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #11 on: October 18, 2018, 07:55:51 PM »

In this climate, option 1.
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Orser67
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #12 on: October 18, 2018, 08:10:27 PM »

Option 1 (sane). Kansas has about a 50% chance, Oklahoma has a 20% chance, Connecticut has a 10% chance and Rhode Island has a 5% chance.
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America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
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« Reply #13 on: October 18, 2018, 10:36:00 PM »

Kansas will flip.
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Breton Racer
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« Reply #14 on: October 18, 2018, 11:11:31 PM »

At this point I would posit that Laura Kelly has a 50-55% of being the next governor of Kansas. Oklahoma has a pretty good chance of flipping for Drew Edmondson (38-48%). I think I have some say so on the last prediction.

My Predictions
Rhode Island
D: 53.5%
R: 41.5%

Connecticut
D: 51.5%
R: 46.5%

Kansas
D: 45.5%
R: 43.5%

Oklahoma
R: 50.5%
D: 48.5%
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Del Tachi
Republican95
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« Reply #15 on: October 18, 2018, 11:34:15 PM »

Definitely KS and OK because there will be a blue wave on election day (the jury is still out on how big it will be), so its likelier that those states come along for the ride rather than CT and RI bucking the national mood.
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