TheSaint250
Junior Chimp
Posts: 7,072
Political Matrix E: -2.84, S: 5.22
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« on: November 01, 2018, 08:31:28 AM » |
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1. Iowa 2. Ohio 3. Georgia 4. Florida 5. Kansas
Iowa: Seeing who wins and the margin of victory may help to determine not only how IA-03 will turn out (since IA-01 is all but guaranteed to flip) but also other districts in the region that are viewed as competitive. I would still give Kim Reynolds a slight advantage here, but if she is losing by a good amount, then that bodes well for Democrats.
Ohio: This is on the list for some of the same reasons as Iowa, though I don't think it's as good of a predictor. Adding to this is the fact that it is one of the most hotly contested gubernatorial elections out there and seems to be a true tossup.
Georgia: Another one on here because of its being one of the most hotly contested. If Stacey Abrams is doing really well (even possibly avoiding a run-off), then Democrats in GA-07 and GA-06 (in that order) may be able to flip both.
Florida: Andrew Gillum is all but guaranteed to win, so it is the margin of victory here that I am interested in. If he is over performing, not only will FL-26 and FL-27 flip but FL-15 and FL-06 may flip as well.
Kansas: The outcomes of the House elections seem to be determined at this point, with KS-02 being the main wild card (though Paul Davis does hold a slight advantage). This is just an election I want to see the outcome of. Will Laura Kelly be able to beat back Kris Kobach and win enough votes despite Greg Orman remaining in the race? This one will definitely be interesting to see on Tuesday.
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