Gubernatorial Ratings and Predictions - New Hampshire

[ElectionsGuy]

Previous threads you can still vote in and affect the overall result:

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Lean R, 53-46 Sununu.

Ratings

ME: Toss-Up --> Lean D

No Election: 7
Safe D: 3
Likely D: 4
Lean D: 2
Toss-Up: 4
Lean R: 1
Likely R: 1
Safe R: 6
No Election: 7

Predictions

Democrats: 19
Republicans: 16

Runoffs

Georgia

Pickups

Alaska
Florida
Illinois
Iowa
Kansas
Maine
Michigan
Nevada

Net: D+7, R-6, I-1

[Xing]

Likely R, Sununu wins 54-46. Could tighten more, but I think it's a little too late for Kelly to surge enough to win.

[Politician]

Likely R, Sununu wins 55-45.

[Strudelcutie4427]

Likely R. Sununu wins 55-45

[Skye]

Likely R, Sununu wins 54-46. Could tighten more, but I think it's a little too late for Kelly to surge enough to win.

[MT Treasurer]

Lean D, Kelly 51-48.

This happens every election cycle.

[ElectionsGuy]

Lean D, Kelly 51-48.

This happens every election cycle.

...

Likely D, Van Ostern by 2-3 points. Stefany Shaheen would have beaten Sununu by 15 points.

[libertpaulian]

Likely R.  Sununu wins 53-45, and our usual suspects will crow about how Molly Kelly was a low-quality candidate on November 7 after they've been talking about how fierce she is pre-November 6.

[jamestroll]

Lean d Kelly by 3

[😥]

Likely R, Sununu wins 55-45.

[MT Treasurer]

Likely D, Van Ostern by 2-3 points. Stefany Shaheen would have beaten Sununu by 15 points.

You’ll notice that I only rated this one Likely D when I had the Senate and presidential race as Safe D (which they were, even when everyone else on this forum thought that Republicans had a better chance of winning NH-PRES/NH-SEN than PA-PRES/PA-SEN or WI-PRES/WI-SEN, etc.). But yeah, I was surprised that Sununu was able to eke out a win in 2016 with Clinton and Hassan on the ballot, but this time the Democrats nominated the right candidate in the right environment with the right president in the White House. Sununu’s certainly no Scott, Hogan or Baker who could survive even a massive Democratic wave, and I hope Molly Kelly goes hard after him.

[ElectionsGuy]

Likely D, Van Ostern by 2-3 points. Stefany Shaheen would have beaten Sununu by 15 points.

You’ll notice that I only rated this one Likely D when I had the Senate and presidential race as Safe D (which they were, even when everyone else on this forum thought that Republicans had a better chance of winning NH-PRES/NH-SEN than PA-PRES/PA-SEN or WI-PRES/WI-SEN, etc.). But yeah, I was surprised that Sununu was able to eke out a win in 2016 with Clinton and Hassan on the ballot, but this time the Democrats nominated the right candidate in the right environment with the right president in the White House. Sununu’s certainly no Scott, Hogan or Baker who could survive even a massive Democratic wave, and I hope Molly Kelly goes hard after him.

Safe D and they were both decided by less than half a percentage point.

[MT Treasurer]

You’re the best troll on Atlas. I love how you’re able to get everyone so worked up over NH and how you were single-handedly able to convince most of Atlas that Heidi Heitkamp was unironically the safest Romney state Democrat up for re-election 🙂

Romney state Democrat? Honestly, in 2017 I thought the GOP's best-case scenario in ND would be a +1 or maybe +2% win contingent upon them nominating a John Thune-tier candidate who would need a GOP wave year to overcome Heitkamp's charisma/popularity/rhetorical and retail politics skills. I thought ND was about as "vulnerable" for Democrats as ME.

In all fairness, I wasn’t the only one who overestimated Heitkamp.

[Politician]

Likely D, Van Ostern by 2-3 points. Stefany Shaheen would have beaten Sununu by 15 points.

You’ll notice that I only rated this one Likely D when I had the Senate and presidential race as Safe D (which they were, even when everyone else on this forum thought that Republicans had a better chance of winning NH-PRES/NH-SEN than PA-PRES/PA-SEN or WI-PRES/WI-SEN, etc.). But yeah, I was surprised that Sununu was able to eke out a win in 2016 with Clinton and Hassan on the ballot, but this time the Democrats nominated the right candidate in the right environment with the right president in the White House. Sununu’s certainly no Scott, Hogan or Baker who could survive even a massive Democratic wave, and I hope Molly Kelly goes hard after him.

You do realize Sununu is the 4th most popular governor in the country, and has yet to trail in a single poll (and has led most of them by double digits)?

Ayotte only lost by 1,000 votes against a popular governor of NH with a conservative third party on the ballot, so "Safe D".

[Skye]

Likely D, Van Ostern by 2-3 points. Stefany Shaheen would have beaten Sununu by 15 points.

You’ll notice that I only rated this one Likely D when I had the Senate and presidential race as Safe D (which they were, even when everyone else on this forum thought that Republicans had a better chance of winning NH-PRES/NH-SEN than PA-PRES/PA-SEN or WI-PRES/WI-SEN, etc.). But yeah, I was surprised that Sununu was able to eke out a win in 2016 with Clinton and Hassan on the ballot, but this time the Democrats nominated the right candidate in the right environment with the right president in the White House. Sununu’s certainly no Scott, Hogan or Baker who could survive even a massive Democratic wave, and I hope Molly Kelly goes hard after him.

You do realize Sununu is the 4th most popular governor in the country, and has yet to trail in a single poll (and has led most of them by double digits)?

Ayotte only lost by 1,000 votes against a popular governor of NH with a conservative third party on the ballot, so "Safe D".

He does realize it. Don't waste your breath.

[ON Progressive]

Likely R, but I wouldn't rule out Kelly at all.

[Xing]

I don’t know about you guys, but I’m personally really stoked about Governor Kelly and two Democrats getting elected in House races in the same state.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Tilt R, Shaheen and Hassan are the only two that can win a senate seat or a Governor seat.

[IceSpear]

Likely R, Sununu wins 54-46. Could tighten more, but I think it's a little too late for Kelly to surge enough to win.

[PoliticalJunkie23]

Likely R.  It's a shame too since Kelly is a great candidate and Sununu has a face I want to punch

[junior chįmp]

Anyone care to redo their predictions now? Sunununu is in big BIG trouble

https://mobile.twitter.com/FarrellGabriell/status/1055249745600544768

[MT Treasurer]

^I’m not changing it, I’ve always had this as Lean/Likely D.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Likely R. New Hampshire has yet to be tired of the Sununu family.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

I haven't paid any attention to this race but I thought in early 2016 this would be an easy pick up. What gives? I get that Sununu is more popular than Trump but why?

[Gass3268]

Bump