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  AZ Data Orbital: Sinema +5
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Author Topic: AZ Data Orbital: Sinema +5  (Read 1864 times)
TheRocketRaccoon
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« on: October 19, 2018, 11:12:10 am »
« edited: October 19, 2018, 11:15:54 am by TheRocketRaccoon »

https://www.dataorbital.com/the-blog/new-survey-sinema-leads-mcsally-in-latest-survey

Regular: Sinema 46.5, McSally 41.1, Green 2.9 (Sinema +5.4)

D surge: Sinema 47.9, McSally 39.8, Green 2.9 (Sinema +8.1)
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2016
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« Reply #1 on: October 19, 2018, 11:15:18 am »

D-Poll, nuff said.
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TheRocketRaccoon
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« Reply #2 on: October 19, 2018, 11:16:39 am »
« Edited: October 19, 2018, 03:59:13 pm by Brittain33 »


Data Orbital has a mean reverted bias of D+0.1...
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #3 on: October 19, 2018, 11:17:55 am »


They have Douchey (R) up by 16 points in the Governor race ...
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #4 on: October 19, 2018, 11:19:01 am »

They called both statewide races right in 2016 and got the margin of victory right, too.
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2016
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« Reply #5 on: October 19, 2018, 11:21:59 am »

There is no way McSally is down 5 and Ducey up 16. No way.
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Southern Speaker Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #6 on: October 19, 2018, 11:23:50 am »

They called both statewide races right in 2016 and got the margin of victory right, too.
Sinema +5 looks about right as of right now. Arizona was one of the likeliest D pickups a long time ago and that hasn't changed.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #7 on: October 19, 2018, 11:26:05 am »

There is no way McSally is down 5 and Ducey up 16. No way.

Yeah I think this is junky.
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yeah_93
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« Reply #8 on: October 19, 2018, 11:26:17 am »

Their last poll was Sinema +4, so this isn't exactly good news for McSally.
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adrac
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« Reply #9 on: October 19, 2018, 11:26:39 am »

There is no way McSally is down 5 and Ducey up 16. No way.

Yes way. Ticket splitting is alive and well. If you think an 21 point difference is a lot, take a look at Maryland and Massachusetts.
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Zaybay
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« Reply #10 on: October 19, 2018, 11:26:49 am »

There is no way McSally is down 5 and Ducey up 16. No way.

Yeah I think this is junky.
Not really, thats what most polls have shown as well. I believe the Fox Poll showed Ducey up 20 and Sinema up 2, so thats an even bigger margin.
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Comrade Funk
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« Reply #11 on: October 19, 2018, 11:27:17 am »

No one cares what a hack like you thinks. You've been concern trolling on every post I've seen.

Still tossup, but encouraging for Sinema.
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2016
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« Reply #12 on: October 19, 2018, 11:29:37 am »

Honestly, every Poll who has that Baby face Sinema ahead is bad.

I say it again: Sinema wins because she has a good look and is pretty. Arizonans seem to like that.

Her Policies & stands on the issues, constant flip-flopping around meanwhile is bad for the State.
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Edgar Suit Larry
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« Reply #13 on: October 19, 2018, 11:41:33 am »

Honestly, every Poll who has that Baby face Sinema ahead is bad.

I say it again: Sinema wins because she has a good look and is pretty. Arizonans seem to like that.

Her Policies & stands on the issues, constant flip-flopping around meanwhile is bad for the State.

...
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KingSweden
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« Reply #14 on: October 19, 2018, 11:51:14 am »

Honestly, every Poll who has that Baby face Sinema ahead is bad.

I say it again: Sinema wins because she has a good look and is pretty. Arizonans seem to like that.

Her Policies & stands on the issues, constant flip-flopping around meanwhile is bad for the State.

...
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UncleSam
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« Reply #15 on: October 19, 2018, 11:52:53 am »

No one cares what a hack like you thinks. You've been concern trolling on every post I've seen.

Still tossup, but encouraging for Sinema.
Do you know what concern trolling is

This poll seems a bit off from other results lately but itís definitely a good result for Sinema.
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Politician stands with Sanchez
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« Reply #16 on: October 19, 2018, 11:53:06 am »

Awesome! Make Arizona (Non-Atlas) blue!
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MycroftCZ
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« Reply #17 on: October 19, 2018, 11:58:48 am »

Sinema's really holding on to a solid lead here.
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #18 on: October 19, 2018, 12:00:15 pm »
« Edited: October 19, 2018, 12:17:05 pm by Devout Centrist »

Honestly, every Poll who has that Baby face Sinema ahead is bad.

I say it again: Sinema wins because she has a good look and is pretty. Arizonans seem to like that.

Her Policies & stands on the issues, constant flip-flopping around meanwhile is bad for the State.
I get you're not the brightest, but it's best if you keep your thoughts to yourself
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Edgar Suit Larry
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« Reply #19 on: October 19, 2018, 12:01:24 pm »

Honestly, every Poll who has that Baby face Sinema ahead is bad.

I say it again: Sinema wins because she has a good look and is pretty. Arizonans seem to like that.

Her Policies & stands on the issues, constant flip-flopping around meanwhile is bad for the State.
I get you're not the brightest, but it's best if you keep your 'thoughts' to yourself

Something what Mark Twain said...
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DataGuy
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« Reply #20 on: October 19, 2018, 12:09:04 pm »


Finally, people are using mean-reverted bias instead of house effect! Hopefully it catches on. 
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Comrade Funk
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« Reply #21 on: October 19, 2018, 12:21:51 pm »

No one cares what a hack like you thinks. You've been concern trolling on every post I've seen.

Still tossup, but encouraging for Sinema.
Do you know what concern trolling is

This poll seems a bit off from other results lately but itís definitely a good result for Sinema.
I thought 2016 was in the mold of a LimoLiberal. Clearly I was wrong.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #22 on: October 19, 2018, 12:45:53 pm »

McSally isnít more likely to win than Mike Braun.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #23 on: October 19, 2018, 12:58:30 pm »


Finally, people are using mean-reverted bias instead of house effect! Hopefully it catches on. 

God bless you for saving me the effort of editing out a moderated obscenity from quoted posts.
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Secret Cavern Survivor
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« Reply #24 on: October 19, 2018, 01:07:46 pm »

I've gotta say, I don't like this trend of Democrats doing better in lower-quality polls than in higher-quality ones. Still, throw it in the average.
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