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Author Topic: ME-Pan Atlantic Research: Janet Mills (D) heading for the win  (Read 1107 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: October 19, 2018, 02:42:45 pm »

44% Janet Mills (D)
36% Shawn Moody (R)
  8% Terry Hayes (I)
  2% Alan Caron (I)

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/Pan_Atlantic_Research_Maine.pdf
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olowakandi
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« Reply #1 on: October 19, 2018, 02:45:23 pm »

But I thought Maine was a red state now...

Collins vote to affirm Kavanaugh has damaged Moody's chances
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« Reply #2 on: October 19, 2018, 02:45:40 pm »

Glad we’re at least getting a little more data on this race. I might move this to Lean D.
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« Reply #3 on: October 19, 2018, 02:46:44 pm »

If I could vote for Janet Mills I would - whether or not you agree with her policies she just seems like a stand up person. Maine is going to be lucky to have her undo the LePage legacy.
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« Reply #4 on: October 19, 2018, 02:47:18 pm »

But I thought Maine was a red state now...

Collins vote to affirm Kavanaugh has damaged Moody's chances

Polling of ME-02 (admittedly the more conservative half of the state) shows that Collins's vote is approved by a wide margin. It's hard to imagine that it would be as radically opposed in ME-01, which would be necessary for it to have any negative effect on statewide Republicans.

This has nothing to do with Collins and everything to do with LePage.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #5 on: October 19, 2018, 02:49:29 pm »

But, Pingree is gonna challenge Collins in 2020, and most likely win
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« Reply #6 on: October 19, 2018, 02:49:34 pm »

Still a Toss-up for now, but Mills is probably slightly favored at this point.

Also lol@Kavanaugh dooming Collins, her favorability in this poll is +30.1%.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #7 on: October 19, 2018, 02:50:20 pm »

Still a Toss-up for now, but Mills is probably slightly favored at this point.

Also lol@Kavanaugh dooming Collins, her favorability in this poll is +30.1%.

She doesn't have a challenger yet, and we will see about that when Pingree announces a challenger to her
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Sentor MAINEiac4434 of Lincoln
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« Reply #8 on: October 19, 2018, 03:09:54 pm »

Holt shit she’s actually up by 8
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Sentor MAINEiac4434 of Lincoln
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« Reply #9 on: October 19, 2018, 04:05:19 pm »

But I thought Maine was a red state now...

Collins vote to affirm Kavanaugh has damaged Moody's chances

Polling of ME-02 (admittedly the more conservative half of the state) shows that Collins's vote is approved by a wide margin. It's hard to imagine that it would be as radically opposed in ME-01, which would be necessary for it to have any negative effect on statewide Republicans.

This has nothing to do with Collins and everything to do with LePage.
The NYT sample seemed Republican leaning (it actually polled more Republicans and Democrats still have a registration advantage there).
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Sentor MAINEiac4434 of Lincoln
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« Reply #10 on: October 19, 2018, 04:30:58 pm »

Mills leading the 2nd district is probably good news for Golden
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« Reply #11 on: October 19, 2018, 04:35:31 pm »

Lean D, closer to Likely than Tossup. I realistically don't see this one going for the Rs. It's not guaranteed like IL, NM, or MI, but a Moody win is highly likely IMO.
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« Reply #12 on: October 19, 2018, 04:39:22 pm »

Unless there’s some kind of crazy herding going on in think Mills is up by 8, folks
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Sentor MAINEiac4434 of Lincoln
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« Reply #13 on: October 19, 2018, 04:44:58 pm »

Unless there’s some kind of crazy herding going on in think Mills is up by 8, folks
*nods excitedly*

Moody has not united Republicans (I guess joining the party a few days before you announce your campaign isn’t good strategy), and Democrats are not defecting their candidate.
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« Reply #14 on: October 19, 2018, 07:23:13 pm »

Holt shit she’s actually up by 8

What is it, the fourth poll where she's up by exactly 8? That's odd.
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« Reply #15 on: October 19, 2018, 07:27:04 pm »

Holt shit she’s actually up by 8

What is it, the fourth poll where she's led by exactly 8? That's odd.
Third, but they've all been released consecutively and in the last few weeks.

Slingshot Strategies, a Hayes internal, found Mills to be at 41 with Moody at 33, Hayes at 10 and Caron at 2.

Change Research found Mills at 52 with Moody at 44 in the H2H, and apparently didn't poll the independents.

And now Pan Atlantic.
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« Reply #16 on: October 19, 2018, 07:43:52 pm »

Holt shit she’s actually up by 8

What is it, the fourth poll where she's led by exactly 8? That's odd.
Third, but they've all been released consecutively and in the last few weeks.

Slingshot Strategies, a Hayes internal, found Mills to be at 41 with Moody at 33, Hayes at 10 and Caron at 2.

Change Research found Mills at 52 with Moody at 44 in the H2H, and apparently didn't poll the independents.

And now Pan Atlantic.

Even if Mills is in fact up by 8, you should see different poll results just by virtue of random variance (let alone the fact that they were designed so differently).
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« Reply #17 on: October 19, 2018, 09:20:37 pm »

PanAtlantic predicted a LePage 7 point margin in 2014. LePage ended up winning by 5.



This might be the Pan Atlantic might be the Marquette of Maine.
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« Reply #18 on: October 20, 2018, 05:53:47 am »

Great poll!

I'd feel a lot better about this race if it had IRV though.
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« Reply #19 on: October 22, 2018, 05:50:04 pm »

Wow, it is actually Lean D
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« Reply #20 on: October 22, 2018, 07:28:06 pm »

Perhaps Mills wasn't such a bad candidate after all.
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« Reply #21 on: October 22, 2018, 07:30:40 pm »

Perhaps Mills wasn't such a bad candidate after all.

Atlas assumes anyone with a vagina is a bad candidate.

Seriously, notice whenever Atlas is bashing someone's "candidate quality", it is almost always a woman. The only exceptions are for over the top offensively bad male candidates like Roy Moore, Bob Menendez, etc.

Ex: Jacky Rosen is a bad candidate because she has a bad haircut and is uninspiring. Donna Shalala is a bad candidate because she doesn't speak Spanish. Randy Bryce is a great candidate despite his multiple arrests, multiple DUIs, delinquent child support payments, etc. because he's a #populist Purple heart white man.
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« Reply #22 on: October 23, 2018, 10:28:08 am »

Perhaps Mills wasn't such a bad candidate after all.

Atlas assumes anyone with a vagina is a bad candidate.

Seriously, notice whenever Atlas is bashing someone's "candidate quality", it is almost always a woman. The only exceptions are for over the top offensively bad male candidates like Roy Moore, Bob Menendez, etc.

Ex: Jacky Rosen is a bad candidate because she has a bad haircut and is uninspiring. Donna Shalala is a bad candidate because she doesn't speak Spanish. Randy Bryce is a great candidate despite his multiple arrests, multiple DUIs, delinquent child support payments, etc. because he's a #populist Purple heart white man.
Wait until the 2020 primaries and then you'll see the same thing x10
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« Reply #23 on: October 23, 2018, 10:29:56 am »

Perhaps Mills wasn't such a bad candidate after all.

Atlas assumes anyone with a vagina is a bad candidate.

Seriously, notice whenever Atlas is bashing someone's "candidate quality", it is almost always a woman. The only exceptions are for over the top offensively bad male candidates like Roy Moore, Bob Menendez, etc.

Ex: Jacky Rosen is a bad candidate because she has a bad haircut and is uninspiring. Donna Shalala is a bad candidate because she doesn't speak Spanish. Randy Bryce is a great candidate despite his multiple arrests, multiple DUIs, delinquent child support payments, etc. because he's a #populist Purple heart white man.
Wait until the 2020 primaries and then you'll see the same thing x10

This entire thread x 1000
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« Reply #24 on: October 23, 2018, 10:30:20 am »

Dang. On an unrelated note, I just looked at the Wikipedia page for this race and Moody's picture looks like a mugshot lol
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