Detailed 2020 Election Prediction

[Bidenworth2020]

I am going to do a couple parts of this.

Part 1- Primary

Candidates
-Kamala Harris
-Elizabeth Warren
-Cory Booker
-Michael Avenatti (LOL)
-Michael Bloomberg
-Joe Biden

In the first three primaries, Biden wipes the floor. With the exception of New Hampshire, which was relatively close between him and Warren, he wins with majorities in both Iowa and South Carolina. Him winning SC, a heavily black dem primary electorate,  signals no chance for Booker, so he drops out. Biden winning NH signifies to Warren she has little to no shot, and she drops out. Avenatti is basically the O'Malley of 2020, but he refuses to drop out. Bloomberg is still weighing his options, as he did 2nd and 3rd in NH and IA. Right now, it seems like Harris is the only one to take on Biden, with the moving of California to March primaries and her relative strength with the Latino vote. She knows will be tested in Nevada, where, although she is down in the polls by a handful, the silent Hispanic vote could carry her. Nevada's caucus comes, and in a shocker, Harris wins by a pretty comfortable 42-35. This is a huge blow to Biden, who is losing the momentum now. He knows he needs to something to prevent a disappointing loss in the coming primaries, so he brings out the big guns: Obama. He and Obama go on a tour of the rustbelt states, as well as a few southern states to help lock up AA's as part of Biden's coalition. National polls have him up 42-30. As the primaries go on, it becomes clearer and clearer that Biden will win the nomination. He is only losing in Hispanic states and even only lost California by 17, a good performance considering the polls, and wiping the floor otherwise. In April, realizing she doesnt have any shot, Harris begins to wind down her campaign and prepare for unity at the convention, and with hopes of getting on the ticket.

During all of this, the economy is growing under Trump, but not at the levels it was earlier in his presidency. The last quarter had the economy grow 1.9%. Trump is running constant ads about the "unhinged left" to distract from the economy and smear his opponents, and polls are showing it is rallying the base.

Polls- National

Biden- 45%
Trump-43%

Harris-42%
Trump-44%

                                                           TO BE CONTINUED