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  AZ NYT/Siena: McSally +2
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Author Topic: AZ NYT/Siena: McSally +2  (Read 1301 times)
DataGuy
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« on: October 20, 2018, 12:45:04 am »

McSally (R): 48%
Sinema (D) 46%
Undecided: 6%

This is exactly the result I anticipated, as I stated in another thread a few days ago:

Quote
This poll is pretty much turning out just as I expected so far. Sinema started with unrealistically high numbers in key groups but the poll shifted to about even as whites moved to the Republicans and non-whites moved to the Democrats.

Things usually level out somewhat by this point, so the final results probably won't be too different.  If I had to guess, I would say it ends up around McSally +2.
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Senator ON Progressive
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« Reply #1 on: October 20, 2018, 12:53:09 am »

Lmao @ Sinema winning 9% of Republicans but tied with indies. That makes absolutely no sense.
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UncleSam
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« Reply #2 on: October 20, 2018, 01:10:12 am »

Lmao @ Sinema winning 9% of Republicans but tied with indies. That makes absolutely no sense.
Why?
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Senator ON Progressive
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« Reply #3 on: October 20, 2018, 01:17:09 am »

Lmao @ Sinema winning 9% of Republicans but tied with indies. That makes absolutely no sense.
Why?

Itís hard to believe that someone who can peel self identified Republicans away like that (9% is massive crossover by any standard) would have a difficult time winning over indies.
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DataGuy
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« Reply #4 on: October 20, 2018, 01:46:31 am »

After applying this new poll, the model I'm currently working on thinks the AZ Senate race would look like this if it were held today:

Kyrsten Sinema (D): 48.82% - 964,408 ✓
Martha McSally (R): 46.88% - 926,085
Other candidates: 4.30% - 84,944

Total votes: 1,975,437

These are numbers based on data and fundamentals, not a random guess. It is not a final prediction by any means, as it will change by Election Day with new data. But this gives an idea of what I would like to do.
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« Reply #5 on: October 20, 2018, 02:18:39 am »

After applying this new poll, the model I'm currently working on thinks the AZ Senate race would look like this if it were held today:

Kyrsten Sinema (D): 48.82% - 964,408 ✓
Martha McSally (R): 46.88% - 926,085
Other candidates: 4.30% - 84,944

Total votes: 1,975,437

These are numbers based on data and fundamentals, not a random guess. It is not a final prediction by any means, as it will change by Election Day with new data. But this gives an idea of what I would like to do.

I'd be interested in seeing how you arrived at those numbers. They do seem plausible.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #6 on: October 20, 2018, 07:00:20 am »

But Atlas told me that Sinema had this in the bag and was more likely to win than Rosen because she led in June polls.
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Hindsight is 2020
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« Reply #7 on: October 20, 2018, 07:36:41 am »

Lmao @ Sinema winning 9% of Republicans but tied with indies. That makes absolutely no sense.
Why?

Itís hard to believe that someone who can peel self identified Republicans away like that (9% is massive crossover by any standard) would have a difficult time winning over indies.
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« Reply #8 on: October 20, 2018, 09:36:51 am »

After applying this new poll, the model I'm currently working on thinks the AZ Senate race would look like this if it were held today:

Kyrsten Sinema (D): 48.82% - 964,408 ✓
Martha McSally (R): 46.88% - 926,085
Other candidates: 4.30% - 84,944

Total votes: 1,975,437

These are numbers based on data and fundamentals, not a random guess. It is not a final prediction by any means, as it will change by Election Day with new data. But this gives an idea of what I would like to do.

I think it will be over 2 Million Votes. How do you come up with these Numbers? Sinema would need to win Maricopa County to win the Election and she won't win that County. The last Democrat to win that County running in a Statewide Race I believe was former Governor Janet Napolitano in 2006. Dems haven't won Maricopa in a Governor, Senate or Presidential Race ever since.
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politicalmasta73
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« Reply #9 on: October 20, 2018, 09:43:15 am »

After applying this new poll, the model I'm currently working on thinks the AZ Senate race would look like this if it were held today:

Kyrsten Sinema (D): 48.82% - 964,408 ✓
Martha McSally (R): 46.88% - 926,085
Other candidates: 4.30% - 84,944

Total votes: 1,975,437

These are numbers based on data and fundamentals, not a random guess. It is not a final prediction by any means, as it will change by Election Day with new data. But this gives an idea of what I would like to do.

I think it will be over 2 Million Votes. How do you come up with these Numbers? Sinema would need to win Maricopa County to win the Election and she won't win that County. The last Democrat to win that County running in a Statewide Race I believe was former Governor Janet Napolitano in 2006. Dems haven't won Maricopa in a Governor, Senate or Presidential Race ever since.
we actually won it in 2014, in a downballot race. Besides, I don't see how you could say that unless mcsally was leading every poll by 3+ points in every poll. Sinema will likely win it regardless of the winner of the overall race.
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IA less likely to flip than OH/TX/FL/GA/NC/AZ
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« Reply #10 on: October 20, 2018, 09:55:00 am »

Average it in with the Data Orbital poll, and thatís basically my prediction. Not sure why some people here are surprised that Democrats could pick up a Senate seat in a Trump +3 state, lol.
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Olawakandi
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« Reply #11 on: October 20, 2018, 10:03:30 am »

But Atlas told me that Sinema had this in the bag and was more likely to win than Rosen because she led in June polls.

You mean Solid and Politician said that
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yeah_93
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« Reply #12 on: October 20, 2018, 10:03:46 am »

This is the final result? I thought they were supposed to poll more people?
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VirginiŠ
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« Reply #13 on: October 20, 2018, 10:40:23 am »

I think it will be over 2 Million Votes. How do you come up with these Numbers? Sinema would need to win Maricopa County to win the Election and she won't win that County. The last Democrat to win that County running in a Statewide Race I believe was former Governor Janet Napolitano in 2006. Dems haven't won Maricopa in a Governor, Senate or Presidential Race ever since.

Maybe, but rule of thumb in politics is that it's impossible until it isn't. Large, lasting swings at the state/county level are not impossible by any means, and can sometimes seem like they are coming out of nowhere. I'm sure lots of people were saying Democrats/Republicans in 2008/2016 would not win <county>, yet they did in the end. On top of that, Trump's margin in Maricopa was pretty underwhelming. It was only a few points, and comfortably under 50%. I think even pluralities under 50 are fairly noteworthy because it does indicate a dislike of the president that can and often does manifest itself in a backlash against their party down the line.

This is the final result? I thought they were supposed to poll more people?

I thought so. They are short about 200 people.
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« Reply #14 on: October 20, 2018, 10:46:32 am »

After applying this new poll, the model I'm currently working on thinks the AZ Senate race would look like this if it were held today:

Kyrsten Sinema (D): 48.82% - 964,408 ✓
Martha McSally (R): 46.88% - 926,085
Other candidates: 4.30% - 84,944

Total votes: 1,975,437

These are numbers based on data and fundamentals, not a random guess. It is not a final prediction by any means, as it will change by Election Day with new data. But this gives an idea of what I would like to do.

I think it will be over 2 Million Votes. How do you come up with these Numbers? Sinema would need to win Maricopa County to win the Election and she won't win that County. The last Democrat to win that County running in a Statewide Race I believe was former Governor Janet Napolitano in 2006. Dems haven't won Maricopa in a Governor, Senate or Presidential Race ever since.
we actually won it in 2014, in a downballot race. Besides, I don't see how you could say that unless mcsally was leading every poll by 3+ points in every poll. Sinema will likely win it regardless of the winner of the overall race.

We'll see. As we get closer to Election Day Republicans will come home even more. The GOP had a very divisive Primary which ended August 27th. Arizona will behave like it always does in the end I think. Democrats haven't won a Senate Seat in AZ since 1988. Even if Sinema wins she will be a one-termer similar to Gardner in CO.
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #15 on: October 20, 2018, 10:47:14 am »

This is the final result? I thought they were supposed to poll more people?
Nate got the result he wanted, ergo it's good to go.

FL-27 needs at least 400 more 65-year old Cubans, though.
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« Reply #16 on: October 20, 2018, 10:49:43 am »

Average it in with the Data Orbital poll, and thatís basically my prediction. Not sure why some people here are surprised that Democrats could pick up a Senate seat in a Trump +3 state, lol.

Democrats easily will win all three Trump +20 states, but lose badly in a Trump +3 state and a Clinton +2 state because #CandidateQualityMatters and #IncumbencyMatters Smiley.
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DataGuy
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« Reply #17 on: October 20, 2018, 10:58:08 am »

People are curious about how I'm doing my predictions. I'm still working on the technical details, but I'll give a brief overview. The first part, naturally, is the polls. I average the polls within a certain time frame, adjust them for bias (not house effect, like most use), and in a new twist I also consider trend lines. In other words, who has the momentum? Finally, the polls are converted to numbers that are realistic considering third-party candidates.

The fundamentals basically consider national shifts vs. local shifts and applies them to historical margins. I have chosen not to include fundraising, as I believe that money is much less relevant to the outcome than it used to be. Finally, the model blends in some "expert" ratings and converts them to numbers.

These different factors are weighed appropriately, with polls getting more weight as more are available (although they can never be weighed above 70%). The basic ingredients are similar to 538's "Deluxe" model, which they expect to be the most accurate. However, I apply the data somewhat differently. Indeed, everyone has the same data, but the success or failure of predictions depend on how the data is used.

As for the actual vote tallies, it's worth noting that turnout is difficult to predict, so that part of the model is still incomplete right now.

I intend to post predictions just like this for every Senate race just before Election Day.

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IceSpear
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« Reply #18 on: October 20, 2018, 10:58:29 am »

This is the final result? I thought they were supposed to poll more people?
Nate got the result he wanted, ergo it's good to go.

FL-27 needs at least 400 more 65-year old Cubans, though.
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IA less likely to flip than OH/TX/FL/GA/NC/AZ
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« Reply #19 on: October 20, 2018, 11:19:44 am »

Average it in with the Data Orbital poll, and thatís basically my prediction. Not sure why some people here are surprised that Democrats could pick up a Senate seat in a Trump +3 state, lol.

Democrats easily will win all three Trump +20 states, but lose badly in a Trump +3 state and a Clinton +2 state because #CandidateQualityMatters and #IncumbencyMatters Smiley.

Donít forget that #PollsMatter, and Sens. Heck/Bayh and Govs. Koster/Gregg can attest to the infallible accuracy of NV/MO/IN polls.
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« Reply #20 on: October 20, 2018, 11:29:27 am »

Siena claims that McSally gets only 86% of Republicans. That is hilarious. My Prediction is that she will get 92-95% of the GOP Vote on Election Day/Night. In a close Race like this it could make all the Difference.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #21 on: October 20, 2018, 11:48:33 am »

Average it in with the Data Orbital poll, and thatís basically my prediction. Not sure why some people here are surprised that Democrats could pick up a Senate seat in a Trump +3 state, lol.

Democrats easily will win all three Trump +20 states, but lose badly in a Trump +3 state and a Clinton +2 state because #CandidateQualityMatters and #IncumbencyMatters Smiley.

Donít forget that #PollsMatter, and Sens. Heck/Bayh and Govs. Koster/Gregg can attest to the infallible accuracy of NV/MO/IN polls.
To be fair, CCM, Young, Greitens, and Holcomb were all very strong or appropriate candidates for their states.
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john cage bubblegum
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« Reply #22 on: October 20, 2018, 11:57:17 am »

This is the final result? I thought they were supposed to poll more people?

Nate tweeted that their goal for states like TN and AZ is about 600 respondents.  They wanted more for a big population state like TX.

This race continues to be a toss-up, but if I'm Sinema, I do like the fact that Trump's net approval is the same as McSally's margin in this sample, and that the Senate generic ballot is R+9.  I could be wrong, but I would expect the final electorate to be a few points to the left of that.
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« Reply #23 on: October 20, 2018, 12:23:40 pm »

Average it in with the Data Orbital poll, and thatís basically my prediction. Not sure why some people here are surprised that Democrats could pick up a Senate seat in a Trump +3 state, lol.

Democrats easily will win all three Trump +20 states, but lose badly in a Trump +3 state and a Clinton +2 state because #CandidateQualityMatters and #IncumbencyMatters Smiley.

Donít forget that #PollsMatter, and Sens. Heck/Bayh and Govs. Koster/Gregg can attest to the infallible accuracy of NV/MO/IN polls.
To be fair, CCM, Young, Greitens, and Holcomb were all very strong or appropriate candidates for their states.


And McSally is not? Give me a break!
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politicalmasta73
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« Reply #24 on: October 20, 2018, 12:31:52 pm »

After applying this new poll, the model I'm currently working on thinks the AZ Senate race would look like this if it were held today:

Kyrsten Sinema (D): 48.82% - 964,408 ✓
Martha McSally (R): 46.88% - 926,085
Other candidates: 4.30% - 84,944

Total votes: 1,975,437

These are numbers based on data and fundamentals, not a random guess. It is not a final prediction by any means, as it will change by Election Day with new data. But this gives an idea of what I would like to do.

I think it will be over 2 Million Votes. How do you come up with these Numbers? Sinema would need to win Maricopa County to win the Election and she won't win that County. The last Democrat to win that County running in a Statewide Race I believe was former Governor Janet Napolitano in 2006. Dems haven't won Maricopa in a Governor, Senate or Presidential Race ever since.
we actually won it in 2014, in a downballot race. Besides, I don't see how you could say that unless mcsally was leading every poll by 3+ points in every poll. Sinema will likely win it regardless of the winner of the overall race.

We'll see. As we get closer to Election Day Republicans will come home even more. The GOP had a very divisive Primary which ended August 27th. Arizona will behave like it always does in the end I think. Democrats haven't won a Senate Seat in AZ since 1988. Even if Sinema wins she will be a one-termer similar to Gardner in CO.
umm.. the only reason sinema has the upper hand is BECAUSE the state is diversifying. It will be even more diverse by 2024. Also, this poll had way more undecided dems than pubs. They will come home.
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