AZ NYT/Siena: McSally +2

[2016]

After applying this new poll, the model I'm currently working on thinks the AZ Senate race would look like this if it were held today:

Kyrsten Sinema (D): 48.82% - 964,408 ✓
Martha McSally (R): 46.88% - 926,085
Other candidates: 4.30% - 84,944

Total votes: 1,975,437

These are numbers based on data and fundamentals, not a random guess. It is not a final prediction by any means, as it will change by Election Day with new data. But this gives an idea of what I would like to do.

I think it will be over 2 Million Votes. How do you come up with these Numbers? Sinema would need to win Maricopa County to win the Election and she won't win that County. The last Democrat to win that County running in a Statewide Race I believe was former Governor Janet Napolitano in 2006. Dems haven't won Maricopa in a Governor, Senate or Presidential Race ever since.

[2016]

After applying this new poll, the model I'm currently working on thinks the AZ Senate race would look like this if it were held today:

Kyrsten Sinema (D): 48.82% - 964,408 ✓
Martha McSally (R): 46.88% - 926,085
Other candidates: 4.30% - 84,944

Total votes: 1,975,437

These are numbers based on data and fundamentals, not a random guess. It is not a final prediction by any means, as it will change by Election Day with new data. But this gives an idea of what I would like to do.

I think it will be over 2 Million Votes. How do you come up with these Numbers? Sinema would need to win Maricopa County to win the Election and she won't win that County. The last Democrat to win that County running in a Statewide Race I believe was former Governor Janet Napolitano in 2006. Dems haven't won Maricopa in a Governor, Senate or Presidential Race ever since.

we actually won it in 2014, in a downballot race. Besides, I don't see how you could say that unless mcsally was leading every poll by 3+ points in every poll. Sinema will likely win it regardless of the winner of the overall race.

We'll see. As we get closer to Election Day Republicans will come home even more. The GOP had a very divisive Primary which ended August 27th. Arizona will behave like it always does in the end I think. Democrats haven't won a Senate Seat in AZ since 1988. Even if Sinema wins she will be a one-termer similar to Gardner in CO.

[2016]

Siena claims that McSally gets only 86% of Republicans. That is hilarious. My Prediction is that she will get 92-95% of the GOP Vote on Election Day/Night. In a close Race like this it could make all the Difference.

[2016]

Average it in with the Data Orbital poll, and that’s basically my prediction. Not sure why some people here are surprised that Democrats could pick up a Senate seat in a Trump +3 state, lol.

Democrats easily will win all three Trump +20 states, but lose badly in a Trump +3 state and a Clinton +2 state because #CandidateQualityMatters and #IncumbencyMatters .

Don’t forget that #PollsMatter, and Sens. Heck/Bayh and Govs. Koster/Gregg can attest to the infallible accuracy of NV/MO/IN polls.

To be fair, CCM, Young, Greitens, and Holcomb were all very strong or appropriate candidates for their states.

And McSally is not? Give me a break!