State Legislature Model from Carl Klarner

[adrac]

https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/ps-political-science-and-politics/article/2018-state-legislative-election-forecasts/5C9A138DA4E0DAB0F86447211AD82455/core-reader

Looks like somebody's gone out and made a state legislature model.

They don't have maps here, so I went and made some. Here's their upper house predictions:

And their lower house predictions:

90%: Solid
60%: Likely
40%: Lean
30%: Tossup/Tilt

Bodies that only have a few seats up or no seats up at all this year I have marked Solid, independent of their exact current composition.

If I put something in wrong, let me know.

[Politician]

Dems winning the WV House?

[Frodo]

And why is the Virginia General Assembly solidly Republican? 

[Oryxslayer]

And why is the Virginia General Assembly solidly Republican?  

Probably because its not up for election in 2018? Anyway, I don't disagree with these ratings too much, though I would probably shift MN House and NY Sen 1 category Left, and FL House one category right. He also notes the IDC are still around...even though the faction basically died in the primary. 

Something to watch in a few weeks will be Michigan since the Wave seems to be crashing hard there (for obvious reasons) and as he notes, the chamber might go from Pub Trifecta to Dem Trifecta.

[ctherainbow]

There's something going on with pundits and PA elections this year.    

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

There's something going on with pundits and PA elections this year.    

Yeah. My low quality model was that a roughly 20 pt swing from 2016 would result in taking the PA State Senate, and a 12 pt swing for the house. Wolf and Casey probably both pass 12, and I wouldn't be surprised if they pass 20. I have the State House as Tilt D and the State Senate as Lean R.

[adrac]

And why is the Virginia General Assembly solidly Republican? 

Yes, because the model only deals with seats up this year.