Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
February 20, 2019, 08:20:48 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Election Archive
| |-+  Election Archive
| | |-+  All Archived Boards
| | | |-+  2018 Gubernatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
| | | | |-+  MN Mason-Dixon: Walz +6
« previous next »
Pages: [1] Print
Author Topic: MN Mason-Dixon: Walz +6  (Read 699 times)
TheRocketRaccoon
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 726
Singapore


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: October 21, 2018, 12:54:23 am »

http://www.startribune.com/minnesota-governor-s-race-poll-star-tribune-mpr-news-tim-walz-jeff-johnson/497958991/

Walz 45
Johnson 39
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 47,957
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09

P P
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: October 21, 2018, 12:58:35 am »

It should be noted that Mason-Dixon and SurveyUSA always underestimate Dems in MN in Dem wave years by about 5-10 points.

So, Walz wins by about 10-15 in the end and Smith by at least 10-15 as well.
Logged
Bevinevitable
IceSpear
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 30,562
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.65, S: -5.70

P P

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: October 21, 2018, 10:41:36 am »

It should be noted that Mason-Dixon and SurveyUSA always underestimate Dems in MN in Dem wave years by about 5-10 points.

So, Walz wins by about 10-15 in the end and Smith by at least 10-15 as well.

I was curious about this so I went to check.

2016: Both overestimated Dems
2014: Both were spot on
2012: SUSA overestimated Dems, Mason Dixon overestimated Reps
2010: SUSA was spot on, Mason Dixon didn't have a poll
2008: Both overestimated Reps
2006: Both were pretty close to the mark

Certainly doesn't seem to be any consistent trend there.
Logged

Joni Ernst 20∞
IndyRep
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 17,409
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: October 21, 2018, 10:44:35 am »

It should be noted that Mason-Dixon and SurveyUSA always underestimate Dems in MN in Dem wave years by about 5-10 points.

So, Walz wins by about 10-15 in the end and Smith by at least 10-15 as well.

lol
Logged

populist neoliberal elitist corporatist polarized record levels polarization elastic inelastic elasticity inelasticity college-educated fiscally conservative socially liberal moderate reasonable wwc



Countdown timer to Joni Ernst's victory speech
Bevinevitable
IceSpear
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 30,562
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.65, S: -5.70

P P

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: October 21, 2018, 10:45:48 am »

It should be noted that Mason-Dixon and SurveyUSA always underestimate Dems in MN in Dem wave years by about 5-10 points.

So, Walz wins by about 10-15 in the end and Smith by at least 10-15 as well.

I was curious about this so I went to check.

2016: Both overestimated Dems
2014: Both were spot on
2012: SUSA overestimated Dems, Mason Dixon overestimated Reps
2010: SUSA was spot on, Mason Dixon didn't have a poll
2008: Both overestimated Reps
2006: Both were pretty close to the mark

Certainly doesn't seem to be any consistent trend there.
Did you read what he said? In Dem Wave Years?

Literally one example in the past decade does not a trend make. And the fact that you actually believe Nevada polls makes it even funnier that you of all people are arguing this.
Logged

RussFeingoldWasRobbedk
Progress96
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,663
United States


Political Matrix
E: -8.65, S: -6.26

P P

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: October 21, 2018, 10:46:56 am »

Walz will win by 10-15.
« Last Edit: October 21, 2018, 10:50:32 am by RussFeingoldWasRobbedk »Logged

2020 Senate Dream Team
CO- Neguse/Carroll
IA- Cindy Axne(so we can run DeJear for IA-03)
MT- Bullock
KS- Barry Grissom
AZ- Ruben Gallego
ME- Jared Golden
NC- Jeff Jackson
GA- Sanford Bishop/Stacey Abrams(other should run for Senate/Gov 2022)
TX- Colin Allred
VA- Lee Carter
2020-
1. Gillibrand
2. O'Rourke
3. Sanders
Gass3268
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 18,571
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: October 21, 2018, 02:17:44 pm »

This poll doesn't mesh with the RGA pulling out all their money here.
Logged

Ranked Preferences for Announced Democratic Nominees:

1. Warren
2. Harris
3. Buttigieg
4. Sanders
5. Klobuchar
6. Gillibrand
7. Castro
8. Booker
9. Delaney
10. Gabbard
Bevinevitable
IceSpear
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 30,562
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.65, S: -5.70

P P

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: October 21, 2018, 03:10:13 pm »

This poll doesn't mesh with the RGA pulling out all their money here.

My guess is that Walz wins by more than 6, but even if he doesn't, it's pretty clear why the RGA would pull their money. For one, they're butthurt that their anointed candidate Pawlenty lost the primary. Secondly, 6 is still a pretty big gap to close in a state that even voted for Hillary and hasn't voted for a Republican statewide in ages. If they see it as unwinnable, it doesn't really matter whether Walz is ahead by 6 or 16. And third, they're playing so much defense this year that they'd rather focus on prospects where the money could actually make a difference.
Logged

Gass3268
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 18,571
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: October 21, 2018, 03:15:17 pm »

This poll doesn't mesh with the RGA pulling out all their money here.

My guess is that Walz wins by more than 6, but even if he doesn't, it's pretty clear why the RGA would pull their money. For one, they're butthurt that their anointed candidate Pawlenty lost the primary. Secondly, 6 is still a pretty big gap to close in a state that even voted for Hillary and hasn't voted for a Republican statewide in ages. If they see it as unwinnable, it doesn't really matter whether Walz is ahead by 6 or 16. And third, they're playing so much defense this year that they'd rather focus on prospects where the money could actually make a difference.

All good points
Logged

Ranked Preferences for Announced Democratic Nominees:

1. Warren
2. Harris
3. Buttigieg
4. Sanders
5. Klobuchar
6. Gillibrand
7. Castro
8. Booker
9. Delaney
10. Gabbard
KingSweden
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,327
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: October 21, 2018, 03:18:06 pm »

This poll doesn't mesh with the RGA pulling out all their money here.

My guess is that Walz wins by more than 6, but even if he doesn't, it's pretty clear why the RGA would pull their money. For one, they're butthurt that their anointed candidate Pawlenty lost the primary. Secondly, 6 is still a pretty big gap to close in a state that even voted for Hillary and hasn't voted for a Republican statewide in ages. If they see it as unwinnable, it doesn't really matter whether Walz is ahead by 6 or 16. And third, they're playing so much defense this year that they'd rather focus on prospects where the money could actually make a difference.

All good points
Logged

For England, James?

No. For me.
Alabama_Indy10
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,239
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: October 21, 2018, 03:26:27 pm »

This poll doesn't mesh with the RGA pulling out all their money here.

My guess is that Walz wins by more than 6, but even if he doesn't, it's pretty clear why the RGA would pull their money. For one, they're butthurt that their anointed candidate Pawlenty lost the primary. Secondly, 6 is still a pretty big gap to close in a state that even voted for Hillary and hasn't voted for a Republican statewide in ages. If they see it as unwinnable, it doesn't really matter whether Walz is ahead by 6 or 16. And third, they're playing so much defense this year that they'd rather focus on prospects where the money could actually make a difference.

All good points
Logged
Scottholes 2.0
Wisconsinite
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 571
United States


P P
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: October 21, 2018, 05:08:09 pm »

I'm glad to see the Midwest riding the blue wave this year! Let's hope WI does, too, by getting rid of Walker. Next WI poll please!
Logged



Badger
badger
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,665
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: October 23, 2018, 02:30:27 pm »

This poll doesn't mesh with the RGA pulling out all their money here.

My guess is that Walz wins by more than 6, but even if he doesn't, it's pretty clear why the RGA would pull their money. For one, they're butthurt that their anointed candidate Pawlenty lost the primary. Secondly, 6 is still a pretty big gap to close in a state that even voted for Hillary and hasn't voted for a Republican statewide in ages. If they see it as unwinnable, it doesn't really matter whether Walz is ahead by 6 or 16. And third, they're playing so much defense this year that they'd rather focus on prospects where the money could actually make a difference.

All good points
Logged

In America, it's easier to con somebody than to convince them they've been conned.-- Mark Twain.
Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,473
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.00, S: -4.00

P P
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: November 10, 2018, 10:39:39 am »

It should be noted that Mason-Dixon and SurveyUSA always underestimate Dems in MN in Dem wave years by about 5-10 points.

So, Walz wins by about 10-15 in the end and Smith by at least 10-15 as well.

lol
He was right, though.
Logged

Temporarily switching to a socialist avatar to protest the red avatars' Sanders Derangement.
Pages: [1] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines