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  2018 Gubernatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  FL CNN/SSRS: Gillum +12
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Author Topic: FL CNN/SSRS: Gillum +12  (Read 3122 times)
OneJ
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« Reply #50 on: October 21, 2018, 01:19:57 pm »

I honestly don't see how you can be a Gillum/Scott voter.  It defies all logic and reason.


My best guess of what one might look like. Tongue

Gillum/Scott voter: Nelson has been in office for far too long. We need new blood. I like what Scott's been doing for our state. I'll vote for Scott.

Also Gillum/Scott voter: DeSantis loves making a fool out of himself. I like Gillum. He's enthusiastic or whatever.

Yeah, remember how many Trump/Greitens/Kander there were? Swing voters donít base their votes on actual issues, lol.

Especially considering that in a scenario in which Kander becomes Senator he would likely vote to McCaskill's left despite her already being fairly to the left of MO.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #51 on: October 21, 2018, 01:49:47 pm »

I honestly don't see how you can be a Gillum/Scott voter.  It defies all logic and reason.


Swing voters certainly arenít the brightest despite their portrayal as magical RINO Tom-esque unicorns in the media
I mean, Gillum is running as the anti-Scott.  

Gillum: "Scott has screwed up our state for the past 8 years.  Let's not elect another 4 years of him, even if he goes by a different name!"

Florida Voter: "I agree!  Let's bring change to Tallahassee!"

Rick Scott: "I'm running for Senate!"

Florida Voter: "Ooh!  Our economy is nice, and he handled the hurricanes really great!!"

Bill Nelson: "Uh...Red Tide Rick!  I'm an astronaut!"

Florida Voter: "I'm voting for Scott!  Sure, I think he's corrupt from Tallahassee, but I trust him to have federal control of my life, not to mention the lives of 300 million other Americans!"

I mean...do Florida voters REALIZE they have to go through these types of mental gymnastics?!

The problem is you're assuming they're doing any mental gymnastics or justifications. They are not.
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Senator ON Progressive
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« Reply #52 on: October 21, 2018, 01:50:42 pm »

I honestly don't see how you can be a Gillum/Scott voter.  It defies all logic and reason.


Swing voters certainly arenít the brightest despite their portrayal as magical RINO Tom-esque unicorns in the media
I mean, Gillum is running as the anti-Scott.  

Gillum: "Scott has screwed up our state for the past 8 years.  Let's not elect another 4 years of him, even if he goes by a different name!"

Florida Voter: "I agree!  Let's bring change to Tallahassee!"

Rick Scott: "I'm running for Senate!"

Florida Voter: "Ooh!  Our economy is nice, and he handled the hurricanes really great!!"

Bill Nelson: "Uh...Red Tide Rick!  I'm an astronaut!"

Florida Voter: "I'm voting for Scott!  Sure, I think he's corrupt from Tallahassee, but I trust him to have federal control of my life, not to mention the lives of 300 million other Americans!"

I mean...do Florida voters REALIZE they have to go through these types of mental gymnastics?!

The problem is you're assuming they're doing any mental gymnastics or justifications. They are not.

That's true. These type of voters are too dumb to even be able to do either of them.
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Republicans for Buttigieg
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« Reply #53 on: October 21, 2018, 02:08:55 pm »

Pretty clearly a bad sample. Gillum doesn't need to win by 12 and he's not going to.

DeSantis is in trouble if even the friendlier polls never show him leading, though. Unless the GOP has been saving a Sinema-style oppo dump for the last few weeks, this race is pretty close to midnight.
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VirginiŠ
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« Reply #54 on: October 21, 2018, 02:12:38 pm »

Pretty clearly a bad sample. Gillum doesn't need to win by 12 and he's not going to.

DeSantis is in trouble if even the friendlier polls never show him leading, though. Unless the GOP has been saving a Sinema-style oppo dump for the last few weeks, this race is pretty close to midnight.

The fact that Gillum has proximity to that FBI investigation and still is leading comfortably in the polls (mostly) makes me doubt that whatever oppo they could scare up, if any, will be effective. It would have to be some pretty serious stuff. Also, given how desperate DeSantis seems to be getting, I'm not even convinced he would hold on to it until the last minute (which would be unwise anyway, due to early voting).

Most likely scenario here seems to be that DeSantis is a dud candidate on track to lose.
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Former Senator Zaybay
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« Reply #55 on: October 21, 2018, 02:18:00 pm »

A trend I have noticed. Polls that are considered high quality and have done polls around the USA have shown large leads for Gillum, while polls done by medicore/poor polls based in FL have shown a really close race.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/governor/fl/florida_governor_desantis_vs_gillum-6518.html
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VirginiŠ
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« Reply #56 on: October 21, 2018, 02:25:21 pm »

A trend I have noticed. Polls that are considered high quality and have done polls around the USA have shown large leads for Gillum, while polls done by medicore/poor polls based in FL have shown a really close race.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/governor/fl/florida_governor_desantis_vs_gillum-6518.html

Introducing the new gold standard, St. Pete Polls!
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TX more competitive than OH
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« Reply #57 on: October 21, 2018, 10:11:41 pm »

Clearly an outlier, but I'll let atlas have their fun for the day...enjoy it people.

Three polls in a row have shown this race approaching blowout territory, so if you need to comfort yourself, okay
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #58 on: October 22, 2018, 01:33:21 am »

#Gillumunder55
#DeSantisunder43
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #59 on: October 22, 2018, 09:46:29 am »

If DeSantis doesn't reach low-single digits soon, the RGA should triage this race and focus on Georgia, Ohio, Wisconsin, Kansas, and Iowa.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #60 on: October 22, 2018, 07:31:28 pm »

This is a very encouraging poll from a race that has been unexpectedly encouraging. He won't win by this much though. Gillum winning by anything will make me satisfied though, even if it's by one-twelfth of this.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #61 on: October 22, 2018, 08:06:49 pm »

UWS says tilt R because Scott 61% approvals. FL is lean D
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TarHeelDem
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« Reply #62 on: October 22, 2018, 09:11:37 pm »

Triage time.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #63 on: November 12, 2018, 04:07:09 am »

Junk poll!
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #64 on: November 12, 2018, 04:37:44 am »

Junk poll!

The poll was fine, it's the electorate that's junk.
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Pickup Paulite
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« Reply #65 on: November 12, 2018, 08:00:42 am »

Iím going to find it hard to trust CNN polls in the future
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Edgar Suit Larry
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« Reply #66 on: November 12, 2018, 10:09:41 am »

The Gillum Effect.
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History505
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« Reply #67 on: November 12, 2018, 10:59:26 am »

Lol.
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Edgar Suit Larry
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« Reply #68 on: November 12, 2018, 12:40:33 pm »

Though the discrepancies between the polls and all that we are learning now point to another conclusion- The election wasn't an election.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #69 on: November 12, 2018, 05:35:23 pm »

2010 Alex Sink, 2014 Charlie Crist and 2018 Andrew Gillum, third midterm in a row, where polls got it wrong in FL.
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auburntiger
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« Reply #70 on: November 12, 2018, 09:02:09 pm »

I honestly don't see how you can be a Gillum/Scott voter.  It defies all logic and reason.

There's the possibility that some folks could simply leave the Senate race blank in the end

Which is exactly what just happened, but in reverse in Broward County!
The ballot designs there are/were awful!
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New York Dude
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« Reply #71 on: November 12, 2018, 09:24:18 pm »

Guys, CNN's final poll for this race was Gillum +1. This is clearly a bad poll, but it's unfair to use it to criticize the pollster.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #72 on: November 12, 2018, 09:25:37 pm »

Guys, CNN's final poll for this race was Gillum +1. This is clearly a bad poll, but it's unfair to use it to criticize the pollster.

The race was never Gillum +12 or anywhere close to that.
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Pericles
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« Reply #73 on: November 12, 2018, 10:11:55 pm »

Good on them at least for not herding.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #74 on: November 13, 2018, 04:33:01 am »

Gillum never lead by 12
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