Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
November 20, 2019, 03:25:51 pm
News: 2020 Presidential Predictions (General) are now active.

  Atlas Forum
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2018 Gubernatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  FL CNN/SSRS: Gillum +12 (search mode)
Pages: [1] Print
Author Topic: FL CNN/SSRS: Gillum +12  (Read 4241 times)
x
Virginia C
Modadmin
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14,687
Ukraine


« on: October 21, 2018, 10:38:53 am »

I don't think it'll be this high in the end, but high single digits at least are not that surprising anymore. This would be the 3rd blowout (relative to Florida) poll in the past month, with others showing him up mid-single digits. I get that Florida is a somewhat close state, but all but 3 of the gubernatorial elections since the 80s have been modest-to-large wins. Rick Scott is the only recent candidate to keep it close, and Chiles barely won in 1994, but I think that can easily be attributed to the fact that it was a GOP wave year in a state that was completing its transition away from old southern Democrats.

Probably Gillum+4 - Gillum+6 in the end.
Logged
x
Virginia C
Modadmin
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14,687
Ukraine


« Reply #1 on: October 21, 2018, 12:17:33 pm »

DeSantis is garbage.

But remember the KY-GOV 2015 polls? Remember the US Presidential 2016 polls?

FL GOP will realize that yes, Florida is a center-right state, but it is not Kansas or even Arizona-level right-wing.

Putnam would have had the race as Tossup.

Worst way to make a case for an election outcome is to say "but 2016" wrt polls.

Florida polls for 2016's presidential race were accurate.
Logged
x
Virginia C
Modadmin
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14,687
Ukraine


« Reply #2 on: October 21, 2018, 02:12:38 pm »

Pretty clearly a bad sample. Gillum doesn't need to win by 12 and he's not going to.

DeSantis is in trouble if even the friendlier polls never show him leading, though. Unless the GOP has been saving a Sinema-style oppo dump for the last few weeks, this race is pretty close to midnight.

The fact that Gillum has proximity to that FBI investigation and still is leading comfortably in the polls (mostly) makes me doubt that whatever oppo they could scare up, if any, will be effective. It would have to be some pretty serious stuff. Also, given how desperate DeSantis seems to be getting, I'm not even convinced he would hold on to it until the last minute (which would be unwise anyway, due to early voting).

Most likely scenario here seems to be that DeSantis is a dud candidate on track to lose.
Logged
x
Virginia C
Modadmin
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14,687
Ukraine


« Reply #3 on: October 21, 2018, 02:25:21 pm »

A trend I have noticed. Polls that are considered high quality and have done polls around the USA have shown large leads for Gillum, while polls done by medicore/poor polls based in FL have shown a really close race.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/governor/fl/florida_governor_desantis_vs_gillum-6518.html

Introducing the new gold standard, St. Pete Polls!
Logged
Pages: [1] Print 
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC