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  2018 Gubernatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  FL CNN/SSRS: Gillum +12 (search mode)
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Author Topic: FL CNN/SSRS: Gillum +12  (Read 3252 times)
Edgar Suit Larry
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« on: October 21, 2018, 09:22:16 am »
« edited: October 21, 2018, 09:46:27 am by Come on! »

That's wicked!
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Edgar Suit Larry
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« Reply #1 on: October 21, 2018, 10:52:27 am »

I don't think it'll be this high in the end, but high single digits at least are not that surprising anymore. This would be the 3rd blowout (relative to Florida) poll in the past month, with others showing him up mid-single digits. I get that Florida is a somewhat close state, but all but 3 of the gubernatorial elections since the 80s have been modest-to-large wins. Rick Scott is the only recent candidate to keep it close, and Chiles barely won in 1994, but I think that can easily be attributed to the fact that it was a GOP wave year in a state that was completing its transition away from old southern Democrats.

Probably Gillum+4 - Gillum+6 in the end.

What would Gillum+5 look like on a map?
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Edgar Suit Larry
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« Reply #2 on: October 21, 2018, 11:28:51 am »

I don't think it'll be this high in the end, but high single digits at least are not that surprising anymore. This would be the 3rd blowout (relative to Florida) poll in the past month, with others showing him up mid-single digits. I get that Florida is a somewhat close state, but all but 3 of the gubernatorial elections since the 80s have been modest-to-large wins. Rick Scott is the only recent candidate to keep it close, and Chiles barely won in 1994, but I think that can easily be attributed to the fact that it was a GOP wave year in a state that was completing its transition away from old southern Democrats.

Probably Gillum+4 - Gillum+6 in the end.

What would Gillum+5 look like on a map?

Obama 2008 minus Flagler, plus Duval, Madison and Seminole, maybe also plus Sarasota.

Maybe Polk too. Now, a Gillum +{high single digits or more} map would probably be Bill Nelsonís 2012 map minus some of the Demosaur panhandle counties

Maybe Sarasota. Doubt it. I think he takes Hillary + Seminole, St.Lucie, Monroe, Duval, Pinellas, and if this is remotely correct, then Polk and Sarasota.
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Edgar Suit Larry
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« Reply #3 on: November 12, 2018, 10:09:41 am »

The Gillum Effect.
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Edgar Suit Larry
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« Reply #4 on: November 12, 2018, 12:40:33 pm »

Though the discrepancies between the polls and all that we are learning now point to another conclusion- The election wasn't an election.
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Edgar Suit Larry
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« Reply #5 on: November 14, 2018, 07:28:10 am »

Good on them at least for not herding.
This. They probably had a D-friendly sample and a D-friendly turnout model and got a weird result but just went with it. Ultimately itís hard to place too much blame on a pollster for something like this. That being said, if this had been a Rosendale +12 poll everyone here would be saying Ďthis is garbage LOL throw it in the junk foreverí so

We knew it was an outlier from the beginning. But why there was a 5 point discrepancy in the race? Either the election was fraudulent or polls are pretty much useless beyond the methodology because there are too many people that are inherently dishonest or a dishonest as a form of passive aggression against the "fake news" media.
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