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Author Topic: Southern Colorado  (Read 3218 times)
TDAS04
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« on: October 21, 2018, 01:10:53 PM »

2012


2016


Why did Southern Colorado swing so far towards Trump?  He was the first GOP presidential nominee to carry Pueblo County since 1972.  I didn't expect a region with so many Hispanics to trend towards Trump so much.
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Hydera
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« Reply #1 on: October 21, 2018, 01:28:21 PM »




Hispanics in Southern Colorado are mainly hispanos. Basically descendants of Spanish and settlers from Mexico who have been in the US for generations. Unlike recent hispanic immigrants, hispanics who have been in the US for generations swung against Hillary in Colorado because they arent as pro-immigration as people thought plus a lot of them voted for Bernie and Trump's anti-free trade rhetoric appealed to them. Its also why the border counties of Southern Texas despite being very hispanic swung against hillary since even when a lot of the population came much later than the hispanos they still swung against Hillary since their views on immigration is much more right-wing than people assumed them to be. Plus a disproportional amount of hispanic voters in hispanic majority areas in the South west will be made of those who were not recently settled which meant that hispanic americans who consider themselves closer to the American mainstream might had been more pro-GOP then in 2012.


https://old.reddit.com/r/MapPorn/comments/5vs8pu/hispaniclatino_population_by_identifying_as/


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« Reply #2 on: October 21, 2018, 07:36:42 PM »

There was a good PBS show that a local Colorado syndicate put together a show where they went to this area and talked with people about the election. The broadcast made a compelling case that this is a case of genuine economic anxiety; a mining/extraction region that had been in decline at the hands of energy markets and had fallen on very hard times. Trump's stance on energy was a big part of people deciding to stick with him, although I imagine there was also a tinge of cultural resentment as a predominantly rural area sharing a state with a bustling progessive urban center. But, with Trump's energy policy here, I'm betting this area will be highly competitive in 2020 and I would go out on a limb and say it mostly supports Stapelton in the gov. race next month.
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TML
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« Reply #3 on: October 21, 2018, 09:49:41 PM »

In some ways Southern Colorado resembles the Midwest - an area which once had a thriving industry that has declined considerably from its peak. Trump’s populist rhetoric resonated with people in regions like this one.
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John861
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« Reply #4 on: November 16, 2018, 03:55:06 AM »

hello
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Snipee356
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« Reply #5 on: November 16, 2018, 10:39:43 AM »

I would go out on a limb and say it mostly supports Stapelton in the gov. race next month.

It was roughly halfway between the 2016 and 2012 results. Good news for Dems in the Rust Belt?
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #6 on: November 16, 2018, 10:41:40 AM »

I would go out on a limb and say it mostly supports Stapelton in the gov. race next month.

It was roughly halfway between the 2016 and 2012 results. Good news for Dems in the Rust Belt?

Stapleton won Las Animas and Conejos Counties, but Polis carried Pueblo and Huerfano Counties. Interestingly enough, Jena Griswold won all four in the SOS race.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #7 on: November 16, 2018, 10:58:31 AM »

Colorado seems like the type of state that can't really gain a "reputation," politically or otherwise, because it changes so much.  Colorado 1990 is NOTHING like Colorado 2000, which is nothing like Colorado 2018.  It's a constantly changing state, it seems.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #8 on: November 16, 2018, 11:03:16 AM »

Colorado seems like the type of state that can't really gain a "reputation," politically or otherwise, because it changes so much.  Colorado 1990 is NOTHING like Colorado 2000, which is nothing like Colorado 2018.  It's a constantly changing state, it seems.

This is true, but it appears to be changing in favor of the Democrats. The local news stations here carried a report the other day about how Magellan Strategies conducted a post-election poll of unaffiliated voters. According to that poll, unaffiliateds broke heavily towards the Democrats this year, accounting for their sweep of the statewide offices, their gains in the state legislature, and their defeat of Mike Coffman. Trump was apparently a major motivator for them, and the poll indicates that they are moving further and further towards the Democrats. Without unaffliated voters, it will be very difficult for Republicans to win future statewide elections in Colorado. Cory Gardner, in particular, should be alarmed at the Democratic margins and percentages in the Denver metropolitan area: they were the reason why Stapleton lost by 11%.
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« Reply #9 on: December 03, 2018, 09:25:56 AM »

I would go out on a limb and say it mostly supports Stapelton in the gov. race next month.

It was roughly halfway between the 2016 and 2012 results. Good news for Dems in the Rust Belt?

I heard some reporting on the ground that said that people in the southern part of the state were pretty tuned out this election. Thankfully both candidates spent a fair bit of time campaigning down there but neither one generated very much interest. The turnout numbers for Pueblo County (population over 150K) strike mas especially pathetic.

Although there's a steel and manufacturing presence in Pueblo I think there's enough demographic difference and economic difference (e.g., some old mining activity, lots of drilling) that makes this too different from the midwest to draw comparisons.
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538Electoral
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« Reply #10 on: December 04, 2018, 06:53:50 AM »

Trump just appeals to these kind of people. Like most other states. The reason why Colorado keeps on voting Democrat is the big cities.
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Hydera
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« Reply #11 on: December 29, 2018, 05:50:22 PM »

I would go out on a limb and say it mostly supports Stapelton in the gov. race next month.

It was roughly halfway between the 2016 and 2012 results. Good news for Dems in the Rust Belt?

I heard some reporting on the ground that said that people in the southern part of the state were pretty tuned out this election. Thankfully both candidates spent a fair bit of time campaigning down there but neither one generated very much interest. The turnout numbers for Pueblo County (population over 150K) strike mas especially pathetic.

Although there's a steel and manufacturing presence in Pueblo I think there's enough demographic difference and economic difference (e.g., some old mining activity, lots of drilling) that makes this too different from the midwest to draw comparisons.


So i looked at economic numbers and unlike other areas in the Front range corridor, Pueblo and Grand Junction has been lagging behind if you index 2009 as the bottom of the GFC to job growth the period after. Which explains the economic reason that a lot of people either switched to Trump or just stayed home.

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All Along The Watchtower
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« Reply #12 on: January 04, 2019, 04:55:19 PM »

Lots of working class voters - white and Latino mainly - who either voted for Trump outright, voted for a third-party candidate or a write-in, left their presidential ballots blank, or stayed home.

Notice the pattern?
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mianfei
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« Reply #13 on: August 22, 2020, 05:41:08 AM »

Colorado seems like the type of state that can't really gain a "reputation," politically or otherwise, because it changes so much.  Colorado 1990 is NOTHING like Colorado 2000, which is nothing like Colorado 2018.  It's a constantly changing state, it seems.
That may be true, but the state is also extremely varied. Whilst it is the big cities that give Colorado the Democratic vote, it also has a concentration of rural Democratic resort counties otherwise occurring only in the area comprising southern Vermont, western Massachusetts and Cheshire and Grafton Counties of New Hampshire.

Even the Republican-trending Hispanic counties of Southern Colorado are varied in themselves. Las Animas County showed a trend analogous to Appalachia or the Midwest, yet relatively nearby Alamosa County voted for a losing Democrat for the first time since it was created in 1916. In the case of Pueblo and Las Animas there may also be increasing influences from the arch-Republican High Plains upon the culture and politics.
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« Reply #14 on: August 22, 2020, 10:27:23 AM »

Even the Republican-trending Hispanic counties of Southern Colorado are varied in themselves. Las Animas County showed a trend analogous to Appalachia or the Midwest, yet relatively nearby Alamosa County voted for a losing Democrat for the first time since it was created in 1916. In the case of Pueblo and Las Animas there may also be increasing influences from the arch-Republican High Plains upon the culture and politics.

Those two are split by a mountain range (the Sangre de Cristos) which changes their geography. Las Animas and somewhat Huerfano have developed into big gas drilling counties in the last ten years; Las Animas in particular is going to stay on the right because CO Dems are increasingly hostile to fracking and deferent to renewables. Alamosa (and Costilla, Saguache, etc.) is basically just agriculture with a small amount of adventure/mountain tourism mixed in.



map source - a good short article about drilling in CO
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #15 on: September 12, 2020, 02:28:34 PM »

Colorado seems like the type of state that can't really gain a "reputation," politically or otherwise, because it changes so much.  Colorado 1990 is NOTHING like Colorado 2000, which is nothing like Colorado 2018.  It's a constantly changing state, it seems.
That may be true, but the state is also extremely varied. Whilst it is the big cities that give Colorado the Democratic vote, it also has a concentration of rural Democratic resort counties otherwise occurring only in the area comprising southern Vermont, western Massachusetts and Cheshire and Grafton Counties of New Hampshire.

Even the Republican-trending Hispanic counties of Southern Colorado are varied in themselves. Las Animas County showed a trend analogous to Appalachia or the Midwest, yet relatively nearby Alamosa County voted for a losing Democrat for the first time since it was created in 1916. In the case of Pueblo and Las Animas there may also be increasing influences from the arch-Republican High Plains upon the culture and politics.

Colorado's inelasticity and high level of polarization are explained by its sheer diversity, which you've laid out well in your post. It has a solidly Democratic, diverse, and highly urbanized city in Denver, sort of a mini-Chicago or a mini-Los Angeles. It has a solidly Democratic and very liberal college town in Boulder (Boulder County)-Colorado's version of Charlottesville or Berkeley. It has a Democratic-leaning college town in Fort Collins (Larimer County)-the equivalent of Blacksburg, Virginia, or Columbia, Missouri. Greeley (Weld County) is Colorado's version of Midland County, Texas or Tulsa County, Oklahoma. Douglas County, Colorado is our version of Hamilton County, Indiana or Williamson County, Tennessee.

El Paso County, Colorado is akin to Bexar County, Texas (minus the heavy Hispanic influence), Oklahoma County, Oklahoma (solidly Republican city), or Bell County, Texas (heavy military presence). The Eastern Plains are an extension of Kansas or Nebraska, the ski counties parallel the liberal rural counties of New England, and Pueblo County, along with adjacent Las Animas, Huerfano, and Conejos Counties, are sort of a mini Rust Belt. And the suburbs of Denver-Adams, Arapahoe, Broomfield, and Jefferson Counties-are akin to the Collar Counties of Philadelphia or the Collar Counties of Chicago. Colorado also has it's "Wild West" type rural areas, found in western and Central Colorado, and the Hispanic counties parallel those found in Arizona, New Mexico, or Texas.

I've always been amazed by how Denver and Colorado Springs are located in the same state, when there is so much that is different between them.
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