FL-SEA Polling: Gillum +6

[Oryxslayer]

Lean D.

Gillum is more likely to win than Abrams.

Can the Florida Senate flip to Democrats as well?

Unlikely but possible. Dems would need to basically have a perfect election for that to happen. They need 5 seats. There are about 7 on the seats in play but 5 of those are lean to likely R at this point. They'll be lucky to pick up 3 seats. I'll gladly eat crow if they win a majority though.

Its very likely for the senate to go 19-21, or 20-20 methinks. Three tossup seats and 4 Lean/Likely R seats. Such a scenario means that every special election from then onwards becomes a battle for chamber control. 

[Oryxslayer]

Lean D.

Gillum is more likely to win than Abrams.

Can the Florida Senate flip to Democrats as well?

Unlikely but possible. Dems would need to basically have a perfect election for that to happen. They need 5 seats. There are about 7 on the seats in play but 5 of those are lean to likely R at this point. They'll be lucky to pick up 3 seats. I'll gladly eat crow if they win a majority though.

Its very likely for the senate to go 19-21, or 20-20 methinks. Three tossup seats and 4 Lean/Likely R seats. Such a scenario means that every special election from then onwards becomes a battle for chamber control. 

Which seats do you think are tossups? I'd say SD-16, SD-18, and SD-36 are the only real pick up opportunities. SD-22 and SD-24 are just too out of reach for different reasons. SD-14 could be weird since the incumbent republican passed away from cancer recently and the GOP just picked a replacement candidate.

Why so bearish on 8? I also am probably a bit more favorable towards 22 since the CD-15 numbers show that the central I4 is a little less pub this year, but it isn't any further left then Lean R.