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  FL St Pete's: Scott +0.3 lol
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Author Topic: FL St Pete's: Scott +0.3 lol  (Read 846 times)
TheRocketRaccoon
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« on: October 22, 2018, 08:19:29 am »

http://stpetepolls.org/files/StPetePolls_2018_State_GEN_GovSenate_October21_J83D.pdf

Yes, they have a new poll out already.

Scott 48.6, Nelson 48.3
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History505
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« Reply #1 on: October 22, 2018, 08:26:49 am »

Decimals lol.
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« Reply #2 on: October 22, 2018, 08:30:19 am »


Clearly Solid R because of the hurricane bump. 
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ajc0918
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« Reply #3 on: October 22, 2018, 08:38:30 am »

It's very weird that Nelson and Gillum are leading those who have already voted by 5% considering the GOP has returned 50k more vote by mail ballots than Dems. Either there are a decent number of GOP defections or NPA voters are voting Dem at an absurd margin.
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Zaybay
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« Reply #4 on: October 22, 2018, 08:39:52 am »

Hahahahahahahaha. They already released a new one. And man, oh man, that hurricane bump is brutal.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #5 on: October 22, 2018, 08:41:13 am »

It's very weird that Nelson and Gillum are leading those who have already voted by 5% considering the GOP has returned 50k more vote by mail ballots than Dems. Either there are a decent number of GOP defections or NPA voters are voting Dem at an absurd margin.

NPA's are essentially young people and Puerto Ricans.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #6 on: October 22, 2018, 08:45:06 am »

IIRC, most of the polls of FL recently (1-2 months) have shown Nelson and Gillum with sizeable leads among Indies.
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DTC
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« Reply #7 on: October 22, 2018, 08:46:02 am »

It's very weird that Nelson and Gillum are leading those who have already voted by 5% considering the GOP has returned 50k more vote by mail ballots than Dems. Either there are a decent number of GOP defections or NPA voters are voting Dem at an absurd margin.


High margin of error and sampling error
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yeah_93
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« Reply #8 on: October 22, 2018, 08:47:22 am »

Out with a new poll already? Damn.
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1J
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« Reply #9 on: October 22, 2018, 08:49:14 am »

Gillum was shown winning 9% of Republicans, so their lead among voters who already voted might have a small portion to do with that?
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Gass3268
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« Reply #10 on: October 22, 2018, 08:50:23 am »


I have to imagine they are going to have a weekly release until the election.
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Edgar Suit Larry
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« Reply #11 on: October 22, 2018, 08:52:51 am »


I have to imagine they are going to have a weekly release until the election.

Hopefully, that's one or two more this entire season. Isn't this Nelson's best poll so far from SPP?
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Politician stands with Sanchez
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« Reply #12 on: October 22, 2018, 09:06:49 am »

#ScottUnder48.7
#NelsonUnder48.4
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Seriously?
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« Reply #13 on: October 22, 2018, 09:33:47 am »

Or people are lying to pollsters or more likely, the subgroup's MOE is very high.

It's very weird that Nelson and Gillum are leading those who have already voted by 5% considering the GOP has returned 50k more vote by mail ballots than Dems. Either there are a decent number of GOP defections or NPA voters are voting Dem at an absurd margin.
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Edgar Suit Larry
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« Reply #14 on: October 22, 2018, 09:38:18 am »

Or people are lying to pollsters or more likely, the subgroup's MOE is very high.

It's very weird that Nelson and Gillum are leading those who have already voted by 5% considering the GOP has returned 50k more vote by mail ballots than Dems. Either there are a decent number of GOP defections or NPA voters are voting Dem at an absurd margin.

That interviewee fraud is so widespread should be a pretty damning indictment about where the United States is heading in the next twenty years. If that is the case. The point is that no one should see themselves as benefiting from poll interviewee fraud.  It's not a success story or anything to be proud of.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #15 on: October 22, 2018, 10:11:05 am »

Or people are lying to pollsters or more likely, the subgroup's MOE is very high.

It's very weird that Nelson and Gillum are leading those who have already voted by 5% considering the GOP has returned 50k more vote by mail ballots than Dems. Either there are a decent number of GOP defections or NPA voters are voting Dem at an absurd margin.

That interviewee fraud is so widespread should be a pretty damning indictment about where the United States is heading in the next twenty years. If that is the case. The point is that no one should see themselves as benefiting from poll interviewee fraud.  It's not a success story or anything to be proud of.
It probably works both ways and cancels things out, but my guess is it's simply just sample size and MOE that caused this discrepancy.
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Senator ON Progressive
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« Reply #16 on: October 22, 2018, 10:18:36 am »

Gillum was shown winning 9% of Republicans, so their lead among voters who already voted might have a small portion to do with that?

Gillum winning 9% of GOP voters seems odd. I wonít complain, but I would have to ask: why would a Republican vote Gillum?
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For Trump everything, for immigrants the law
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« Reply #17 on: October 22, 2018, 11:15:36 am »

Well, this pollster had Scott up 2 before, so I guess there's no hurricane bump, huh?
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IceSpear
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« Reply #18 on: October 22, 2018, 11:56:41 am »

Gillum was shown winning 9% of Republicans, so their lead among voters who already voted might have a small portion to do with that?

Gillum winning 9% of GOP voters seems odd. I wonít complain, but I would have to ask: why would a Republican vote Gillum?

Trying to psycho analyze RINO Tom-like Republicans is a foolís errand

~10% crossover is fairly typical actually. Obama won 10% of Republicans while McCain won 10% of Democrats. The 2012/2016 results were pretty similar. I'm guessing it's just the same people over and over who always vote for the party they're not registered to but are too lazy to switch their party affiliation.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #19 on: October 22, 2018, 02:49:44 pm »

Gillum was shown winning 9% of Republicans, so their lead among voters who already voted might have a small portion to do with that?

Gillum winning 9% of GOP voters seems odd. I wonít complain, but I would have to ask: why would a Republican vote Gillum?

Iíd say a combination of people too lazy to switch their party affiliation, "reasonable" RINO Tom-like Republicans who also vote for people like Clinton, Bredesen, etc. and minority voters/moderates who canít stand Trump and/or DeSantis.
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