FL-OnMessage (R internal): Scott +5

[Skye]

Scott (R)              51
Nelson (D, inc.)    46

https://rickscottforflorida.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/FL-Statewide-Survey-n2200.pdf

[MT Treasurer]

It’s a Scott internal and should obviously be taken with a grain of salt, but I’m not at all buying that this race is Lean or Likely D, at least not yet. Still a Toss-up.

[Comrade Funk]

This poll also has DeSantis up 3 so...pretty bad result for Scott honestly

[Skye]

It’s a Scott internal and should obviously be taken with a grain of salt, but I’m not at all buying that this race is Lean or Likely D, at least not yet. Still a Toss-up.

Yeah. Though it's pretty amazing the amount of polls we got for this race so recently.

[john cage bubblegum]

It’s a Scott internal and should obviously be taken with a grain of salt, but I’m not at all buying that this race is Lean or Likely D, at least not yet. Still a Toss-up.

Given that this is coming out right after a Nelson +6 result from Quinnipiac, I'm taking it with a mountain of salt.  Toss-up is certainly reasonable, but for me, this race is definitely advantage Nelson.

[MT Treasurer]

It’s a Scott internal and should obviously be taken with a grain of salt, but I’m not at all buying that this race is Lean or Likely D, at least not yet. Still a Toss-up.

Yeah. Though it's pretty amazing the amount of polls we got for this race so recently.

Well, some of them are going to end up with egg all over their faces, that’s for sure.

[Brittain33]

Republican candidates have a primal need to believe they are winning and dominating, even when they aren’t.

[Seriously?]

Yeah, because Democrats never do that. Reading the tea leaves, this race is a tossup. Nothing really new learned from this poll.

Republican candidates have a primal need to believe they are winning and dominating, even when they aren’t.

[Ebsy]

OnMessage is a terrible pollster.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Nelson, like Brown was always the favorite, and Cordray and Gillum were always the underdogs

[UncleSam]

Republican candidates have a primal need to believe they are winning and dominating, even when they aren’t.

All candidates have this need lol. Just look at the Clinton campaign in 2016.

[Xing]

Well, it's possible that Nelson underperforms Donnelly, but since this is an R internal, it's obviously not going to be this bad for him. Pretty interesting how much the FL polling is diverging. I guess they're all making different assumptions about turnout.

[MT Treasurer]

Well, it's possible that Nelson underperforms Donnelly, but since this is an R internal, it's obviously not going to be this bad for him. Pretty interesting how much the FL polling is diverging. I guess they're all making different assumptions about turnout.

I mean, that’s pretty much the case in every state at this point. We won’t find out until election day.

[DavidB.]

Republican candidates have a primal need to believe they are winning and dominating, even when they aren’t.

Ftfy.

[2016]

Let's be real: Many of these Races will come to TURNOUT, TURNOUT, TURNOUT....

CNN is projecting D + 3 (40/37/23) Electorate which is unheard of in Florida and would be the 1st Time I think since 1998 when Jeb got elected Governor or maybe ever.

OnMessage is projecting a R + 1 Electorate.

This is a HUGE Difference. In a Race where Nelson leads by 3-6 Points right now if you believe these latest Polls having a D + 3 Electorate instead of a R + 1 makes all the Difference being down 5 or up 5 Points.

Moreover the 2014 Exit Polls showed R35/I33/D31 a R + 4. Going from R + 4 to D + 3 is in no way believable.