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| | |-+  2018 Senatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
| | | |-+  MT: MTN-MSU: Tester +3
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Author Topic: MT: MTN-MSU: Tester +3  (Read 1614 times)
reagente
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« on: October 22, 2018, 08:59:19 pm »

Tester (D) - 46.2
Rosendale (R) - 43.1
Breckenridge (L) - 2.6

https://krtv.com/news/2018/10/22/mtn-msu-poll-tester-holds-narrow-lead-in-u-s-senate-race/?fbclid=IwAR2Ge9R3NuV9sgiylZDWFMHm83jqrkdmQG3-fpaInFGXPNVUYGDXK9mT0y4
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Lou Barletta's Teeth
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« Reply #1 on: October 22, 2018, 09:00:26 pm »

Yeah, it looks like Tester will be fine.
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« Reply #2 on: October 22, 2018, 09:01:42 pm »

But Charlie Cook told me that Jon Tester was less vulnerable than Angus King, Tina Smith, and Tammy Baldwin.
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politicalmasta73
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« Reply #3 on: October 22, 2018, 09:02:51 pm »

decimals
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KingSweden
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« Reply #4 on: October 22, 2018, 09:03:21 pm »

College poll with decimals from several weeks ago.

*sigh*

Realllllly wish we could get someone else to come in here so we donít have to settle for this or that farcical Tester +24
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« Reply #5 on: October 22, 2018, 09:04:03 pm »

College poll with decimals from several weeks ago.

*sigh*

Realllllly wish we could get someone else to come in here so we donít have to settle for this or that farcical Tester +24

It would actually be really funny if the election actually did end up being around that margin...
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« Reply #6 on: October 22, 2018, 09:05:18 pm »

Not a great poll for Tester, but I suppose he has a narrow edge. Not the best poll in general, though.
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« Reply #7 on: October 22, 2018, 09:05:28 pm »

Quote
The mail-ballot poll of more than 2,000 registered voters, conducted during a three-week period in late September and early October, has an error margin of plus-or-minus 2 percent.

...what? As in, they sent polls to people's houses? Am I missing something?
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The Inevitable Kevin Stitt
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« Reply #8 on: October 22, 2018, 09:10:12 pm »

This doesnít exactly inspire confidence
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Beet
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« Reply #9 on: October 22, 2018, 09:11:42 pm »

I have this on my R pickup list, and have since last July. In the end there won't be a whiff of difference between flattop and his colleague adjacent east. There's no way a state that voted against Hillary Clinton by 20 points, and loves assaulting journalists, will reelect a Democrat.
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« Reply #10 on: October 22, 2018, 09:12:27 pm »

It's fascinating to me that Jon Tester has never won by more than four points in his Senate career, and has never received an absolute majority. It appears that trend will be continuing this year.
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« Reply #11 on: October 22, 2018, 09:12:27 pm »

College poll with decimals from several weeks ago.

*sigh*

Realllllly wish we could get someone else to come in here so we donít have to settle for this or that farcical Tester +24

Yeah, no Mason-Dixon poll this year, unfortunately.
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« Reply #12 on: October 22, 2018, 09:13:02 pm »

I have this on my R pickup list, and have since last July. In the end there won't be a whiff of difference between flattop and his colleague adjacent east. There's no way a state that voted against Hillary Clinton by 20 points, and loves assaulting journalists, will reelect a Democrat.

Well, let's start with the fact that R+36 is a lot different than R+20. That alone would erase Heitkamp's deficit, all else being equal.
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« Reply #13 on: October 22, 2018, 09:16:57 pm »

That fat fingerless f*** needs to go down. #SendTrumpReinforcements

I'm sorry, but this is absolutely disgusting. We can argue over policy, and heck, it's even mostly within bounds to insult his looks, but it's really messed up and beyond the pale to bring his tragic injury in to this. I hate my governor Greg Abbott, but I would never insult him in that fashion and make fun of his disabilities.
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« Reply #14 on: October 22, 2018, 09:19:10 pm »

College poll with decimals from several weeks ago.

*sigh*

Realllllly wish we could get someone else to come in here so we donít have to settle for this or that farcical Tester +24

It would actually be really funny if the election actually did end up being around that margin...

The thing is, I think the margin looks within reason.

Quote
The mail-ballot poll of more than 2,000 registered voters, conducted during a three-week period in late September and early October, has an error margin of plus-or-minus 2 percent.

...what? As in, they sent polls to people's houses? Am I missing something?

That... doesnít strike me as best practice
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« Reply #15 on: October 22, 2018, 09:22:33 pm »

That fat fingerless f*** needs to go down. #SendTrumpReinforcements

I'm sorry, but this is absolutely disgusting. We can argue over policy, and heck, it's even mostly within bounds to insult his looks, but it's really messed up and beyond the pale to bring his tragic injury in to this. I hate my governor Greg Abbott, but I would never insult him in that fashion and make fun of his disabilities.

Says the guy who is in favor of running a racist Dixiecrat campaign against Tim Scott and who was disappointed when he found out that Rosendale didnít have a speech impediment because it would hurt him in the debates, lmao
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« Reply #16 on: October 22, 2018, 09:30:49 pm »

That fat fingerless f*** needs to go down. #SendTrumpReinforcements

I'm sorry, but this is absolutely disgusting. We can argue over policy, and heck, it's even mostly within bounds to insult his looks, but it's really messed up and beyond the pale to bring his tragic injury in to this. I hate my governor Greg Abbott, but I would never insult him in that fashion and make fun of his disabilities.

Says the guy who is in favor of running a racist Dixiecrat campaign against Tim Scott and who was disappointed when he found out that Rosendale didnít have a speech impediment because it would hurt him in the debates, lmao
still a pretty mean thing to say, regardless. Nobody messes with #populists
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« Reply #17 on: October 22, 2018, 09:31:22 pm »

That fat fingerless f*** needs to go down. #SendTrumpReinforcements

I'm sorry, but this is absolutely disgusting. We can argue over policy, and heck, it's even mostly within bounds to insult his looks, but it's really messed up and beyond the pale to bring his tragic injury in to this. I hate my governor Greg Abbott, but I would never insult him in that fashion and make fun of his disabilities.

Says the guy who is in favor of running a racist Dixiecrat campaign against Tim Scott and who was disappointed when he found out that Rosendale didnít have a speech impediment because it would hurt him in the debates, lmao

So we finally have that MTN-MSU Poll out you talked about in another Thread. This is a Toss Up Race for me. Along with Missouri, Indiana and North Dakota the best Pick Up Opportunities for the GOP.

I can see Tester losing along with Heitkamp and McCaskill....

This Graphic though seems odd to me

Tester ahead with older Voters especially those 65+ is a little bit suspicious.
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« Reply #18 on: October 22, 2018, 09:32:11 pm »

That fat fingerless f*** needs to go down. #SendTrumpReinforcements

I'm sorry, but this is absolutely disgusting. We can argue over policy, and heck, it's even mostly within bounds to insult his looks, but it's really messed up and beyond the pale to bring his tragic injury in to this. I hate my governor Greg Abbott, but I would never insult him in that fashion and make fun of his disabilities.

Says the guy who is in favor of running a racist Dixiecrat campaign against Tim Scott and who was disappointed when he found out that Rosendale didnít have a speech impediment because it would hurt him in the debates, lmao
Ouch.
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« Reply #19 on: October 22, 2018, 09:33:05 pm »

That fat fingerless f*** needs to go down. #SendTrumpReinforcements

I have this taint-waffle on ignore, so I canít report him, but this kind of BS warrants an infraction.
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« Reply #20 on: October 22, 2018, 09:34:27 pm »

That fat fingerless f*** needs to go down. #SendTrumpReinforcements

I have this taint-waffle on ignore, so I canít report him, but this kind of BS warrants an infraction.

I am so stealing "taint-waffle" as an insult.
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« Reply #21 on: October 22, 2018, 09:40:47 pm »

This Graphic though seems odd to me

Tester ahead with older Voters especially those 65+ is a little bit suspicious.

Nah, thatís actually believable in a state like Montana, and keep in mind that itís not a particularly large lead anyway. The crosstabs look fine, and so does the topline/margin. Itís probably the best snapshot weíre going to get of this race before election day.

Anyone want to guess what their MT-AL poll will show? Iíll say Gianforte +3.5 Tongue
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« Reply #22 on: October 22, 2018, 09:51:19 pm »

This Graphic though seems odd to me

Tester ahead with older Voters especially those 65+ is a little bit suspicious.

Nah, thatís actually believable in a state like Montana, and keep in mind that itís not a particularly large lead anyway. The crosstabs look fine, and so does the topline/margin. Itís probably the best snapshot weíre going to get of this race before election day.

Anyone want to guess what their MT-AL poll will show? Iíll say Gianforte +3.5 Tongue

Yeah Grappliní Greg up by 2 or 3 sounds reasonable
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« Reply #23 on: October 22, 2018, 10:05:18 pm »

Anyways pure tossup but gove the narrowest edge to Tester. I will also take the unpopular position that he is in better shape for reelection than Manchin.
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« Reply #24 on: October 22, 2018, 10:06:06 pm »

Anyways pure tossup but gove the narrowest edge to Tester. I will also take the unpopular position that he is in better shape for reelection than Manchin.

Thank you for bearing that cross on behalf of the rest of us
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For England, James?

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